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The Gambler's Fallacy and Long Term Averages


NickD2011

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Just because we had a big winter last year and a big storm last week doesn't make a repeat of Feb 2010 unlikely. Or just because we have 5 snowless winters doesn't make a 6th snowless winter less likely. Same thing when playing roulette, if black comes up 20 times in a row doesn't make red any more likely on the 21st spin.

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