Derek30 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Saw a similar thread started on Stormtrack. On the first day of the year, the US has already has a tornado. Looks to me like we'll be under the influence of a moderate to strong La Nina for awhile yet. Any analogs point to an active or quiet year in certain areas? Lots of time left until the real season begins, so let's speculate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looks like it could active in the MS Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm probably about as concerned for IL/IN as you can be this far out. A lot of the analog years being tossed around had significant or even historic tornado outbreaks in the region. It still comes down to the details with individual events and those are completely unforecastable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm probably about as concerned for IL/IN as you can be this far out. A lot of the analog years being tossed around had significant or even historic tornado outbreaks in the region. It still comes down to the details with individual events and those are completely unforecastable at this point. 100% agree, things could shape up to be a very active year this year potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Hopefully it will suck as bad as the first part of my winter. My guess with Nina hanging around and blocking will probably be around until I die I foresee something like we seen last yr and Alek saying SE trend a lot.. Each region of the MW and lakes will get their times to shine and precip will be above avg for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 100% agree, things could shape up to be a very active year this year potentially. Yeah...I mean I don't think ENSO state is the end all be all, but you tend to see certain general patterns set up which can shift areas of higher activity. There are papers out there about this...admittedly some of it is a bit controversial. Some things I will be watching throughout the winter are predominant storm tracks, GOM temps, precip or lack thereof in the southern Plains, etc. But again, each system really needs to be evaluated on its own as it comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah...I mean I don't think ENSO state is the end all be all, but you tend to see certain general patterns set up which can shift areas of higher activity. There are papers out there about this...admittedly some of it is a bit controversial. Some things I will be watching throughout the winter are predominant storm tracks, GOM temps, precip or lack thereof in the southern Plains, etc. But again, each system really needs to be evaluated on its own as it comes along. Yeah I agree, but to me there certainly would be a better than 50% chance of an above normal season this upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah...I mean I don't think ENSO state is the end all be all, but you tend to see certain general patterns set up which can shift areas of higher activity. There are papers out there about this...admittedly some of it is a bit controversial. Some things I will be watching throughout the winter are predominant storm tracks, GOM temps, precip or lack thereof in the southern Plains, etc. But again, each system really needs to be evaluated on its own as it comes along. Another thing to watch for, with the analogs themselves.... is to see if any tornado outbreak sequences are associated with the analog years. It's one thing to have an analog year that has one or two historic events.... because, the chances of one synoptic storm playing out similarly, naturally, aren't that great. However, a tornado outbreak sequence is brought on by a whole hemispheric pattern over a set of weeks... that is favorable for multiple robust synoptic storm systems. A hemispheric pattern is much easier to duplicate, statistically, than one synoptic storm and its results... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Another thing to watch for, with the analogs themselves.... is to see if any tornado outbreak sequences are associated with the analog years. It's one thing to have an analog year that has one or two historic events.... because, the chances of one synoptic storm playing out similarly, naturally, aren't that great. However, a tornado outbreak sequence is brought on by a whole hemispheric pattern over a set of weeks... that is favorable for multiple robust synoptic storm systems. A hemispheric pattern is much easier to duplicate, statistically, than one synoptic storm and its results... You and I were just talking about this the other day lol Fred, this is your thread! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm probably about as concerned for IL/IN as you can be this far out. A lot of the analog years being tossed around had significant or even historic tornado outbreaks in the region. It still comes down to the details with individual events and those are completely unforecastable at this point. I agree. I think it could be a really active season for the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just thought I'd bump this bad boy up instead of starting another thread.. Any new thoughts with the storm season now only a couple of months away? I get the feeling that the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest are in for a rocky ride come April and May. STJ has flexed its muscles a few times this winter and the Southern Plains have been very dry. Would make sense to see a strong ridge developing there, possibly early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just thought I'd bump this bad boy up instead of starting another thread.. Any new thoughts with the storm season now only a couple of months away? I get the feeling that the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest are in for a rocky ride come April and May. STJ has flexed its muscles a few times this winter and the Southern Plains have been very dry. Would make sense to see a strong ridge developing there, possibly early in the season. Could serve to move the dryline farther east than normal at times this season...which has been a player in some historic outbreaks. Also we have had few sw/ne trending Colorado or TX panhandle lows this winter season with so many clippers. Nature balances out as the pattern changes. Spring could be stormy with more gulf moisture being tapped than so far in the winter season for the Midwest at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Could serve to move the dryline farther east than normal at times this season...which has been a player in some historic outbreaks. Also we have had few sw/ne trending Colorado or TX panhandle lows this winter season with so many clippers. Nature balances out as the pattern changes. Spring could be stormy with more gulf moisture being tapped than so far in the winter season for the Midwest at least. Yeah this could help focus things closer to the moist flow off the gulf, compared to back across Texas Oklahoma and Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah this could help focus things closer to the moist flow off the gulf, compared to back across Texas Oklahoma and Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The potential for active severe season always intrigues me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If anything I think that because of the lack of moisture this winter in KS, OK, TX, and a strong La Nina, the dry line will be forced more towards IA, MO, IL, IN, KY, AR, TN. But it is all conjecture at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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