weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think at least a light snowfall is a safe bet. One way or another we have a fairly amplified northern stream disturbance with connection to Atlantic moisture. I would say an impact but not crippling snow event. Warning snows but not a shut down the region type event other than a few hours of a/p delays at the height. But those events are quite enjoyable and we move to a VERY wintry pattern thereafter. What can be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Who is expecting a monster event? Nobody is going crazy ... yet. Hello. Totally expect this will morph into a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I thought that was interesting that of all these muted solutions the one model that can't see amplitude if it poked it in the eyes is the one model with the most cohesively deeply developed solution off the 00z. Toss the 00z Euro - I don't care what the verification scores are, that is terrible run that doesn't make any physical sense out west and it hugely distorts what happens in the east. In any event, we should soon be entering modeling black out anyway, where they all drop the signal and opt for beach weather for a day and half during which time people find clever ways to insult one another within the confines of forum policies for decorum. ...only to have it come back hugely, where everyone gets whiplashed into this bi-polar manic elation craze. This is what happens when you let the weather guide your emotions - but people still let do so. Fascinating. 100% chance of all that happening; 50% chance of a significant storm; 10% chance it will be memorable....? sounds reasonable enough for D7 fantastic post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Why is anyone surprised that the wave is coming tonight to give us 1-3 inches? Models had it lost it, and have brought it back. People thought I was nuts the other day. Water vapor and radar says it's getting it's act together AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Why is anyone surprised that the wave is coming tonight to give us 1-3 inches? Models had it lost it, and have brought it back. People thought I was nuts the other day. Water vapor and radar says it's getting it's act together AWT I still think this will be a D->1" type thing for most The front needs to get to work on these torrid torch temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS on board with bringing some light snow into the area later tonight .. lock it up.. nice little coating to cover all those bare spots. I think I'll still be bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 you think we see an afternoon update? specially for EMA/cape and Islands?? You've got some pretty warm surfaces to cool....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 dusting to 2in would be my best guess on this anything more just isnt going to happen I still think this will be a D->1" type thing for most The front needs to get to work on these torrid torch temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I still think this will be a D->1" type thing for most The front needs to get to work on these torrid torch temps I'll be surprised if anyone got more than a few flakes...best precip will be east but that's where it will be slowest to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Why is anyone surprised that the wave is coming tonight to give us 1-3 inches? Models had it lost it, and have brought it back. People thought I was nuts the other day. Water vapor and radar says it's getting it's act together AWT I don't think its just the other day that they think you are..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Trace to heavy trace tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think I'll still be bare and ready for a huge weenie Would not have thought that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Trace to heavy trace tonight. If we are lucky......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Trace to heavy trace tonight. I say dry likely, trace at best (not even a dusting). Meanwhile, nice sun shine and blue sky. 42.4/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 oh well, was hoping for a during, maybe I will be surprised when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Plus the ground seems to be a bit warmer. At least in the bare azz spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Plus the ground seems to be a bit warmer. At least in the bare azz spots Yeah, I doubt anything sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is not keeping the PV consolidated like the 00z run...but there is still a strong tendency to push all that vorticity south so it looks like it will still form a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Why is anyone surprised that the wave is coming tonight to give us 1-3 inches? Models had it lost it, and have brought it back. People thought I was nuts the other day. Water vapor and radar says it's getting it's act together AWT It's a pretty simple psychology, Kev' Users of this forum by nature of tending to be storm zealots will concentrate their focus on the big ticket items, while these little roach systems scurry passed. They are not really "surprised" - it's really more like, 'Oh, right - okay, there's this too'. It doesn't look like 1-3, though. that is DEFINITELY you spinning this like a GOP candidate at a Fox News convention - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is not keeping the PV consolidated like the 00z run...but there is still a strong tendency to push all that vorticity south so it looks like it will still form a storm. Yeah what a cluster****. The gfs takes all that energy in the nrn Plains and rips it east, forming the low. Problem is, it moves right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is not keeping the PV consolidated like the 00z run...but there is still a strong tendency to push all that vorticity south so it looks like it will still form a storm. yea, seems to be heading toward what i'm guessing will be a disappointing mood swinger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah what a cluster****. The gfs takes all that energy in the nrn Plains and rips it east, forming the low. Problem is, it moves right overhead. It might be awhile before we resolve all this junk. Its clear looking at ensembles too that there is reasonable spread on how its all handled.Looks like GFS is an adivsory event for eastern SNE and a warning event for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah what a cluster****. The gfs takes all that energy in the nrn Plains and rips it east, forming the low. Problem is, it moves right overhead. Simply put it's suffering shear because we needed 3 things to happen: 1) block retrogrades way up N (check) 2) presence of SPV to come south when said retrograde takes place (check) 3) translation of well timed southern or intermediate (polar) stream S/W to erode the flat ridge south enough to not shear SPV as it comes down... (not checked) what we are seeing here is the model abandoning #3 - from what I am seeing. The result is that the retrograde presses the SPV south, but since the ridge is there, it gets sandwiched/sheared [Edit: there is an intermediate streamer in there ...the model just fails to phase] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS is trying really hard to replicate the day after tomorrow over the northeast and southern Canada In the process, it becomes a mediocre event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It might be awhile before we resolve all this junk. Its clear looking at ensembles too that there is reasonable spread on how its all handled.Looks like GFS is an adivsory event for eastern SNE and a warning event for Maine. Boy what a difference 50 miles of latidude would make..lol. This is probably going to take until the final 36-48 hrs to figure out. I think the concern is that low pressure won't get its act together until it reaches the GOM, but we have almost 6 days to iron things out. What a solution for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am honestly not worried about the helter skelter (if I said that correctly) nature of the medium range models at this time. Last few coastal storms have shown a strong resilency to do what the medium range models said in the opposite form. FWIW models in this range tend to have a few strong biases: 1.) They tend to often speed up the southern stream to the point where the northern jet crushes the S/W to the south and east and then out to sea, missing the phase connection with the northern jet stream disturbance. They tend to shear the disturbance way out ahead of the northern jet. Then within 48 hours or so the real short range, the models bring back the phasing potential, given what we monitor on the water vapor imagery, this would be quite obvious. 2.) The models tend to slow down the northern jet stream energies too much, to where the timing of the phasing is off between streams and therefore there is no appreciable digging, and when there is digging the southern stream vort max is already way out to sea towards Bermuda. Models tend to correct themselves as the energy gets closer to better sampling. The fact that the main energy involved comes directly from the polar vortex, I think the models are already mishandling it to a degree. Only in the near term the models see what we observe on water vapor imagery as a stronger and faster disturbance ripping southward within the polar jet stream. Then the models obviously bring back the large storm. Now given these biases in the medium range, yes even the EURO deals with these issues, one would think that the medium ground would be in nature to phase both jet streams into an overall mean upper level trough over the eastern US. I think this will be what will end up happening in the overall grand scheme of things as we get to within 48 hours of the potential event. One only has to monitor what happens mid week this week with the potential clipper system to bring in light snow in western SNE and light rain in eastern SNE. As well as see what the latest 12z NAM/GFS runs have done to bring alive the talks of the frontal wave precip and developing quicker than anticipated just 12 hours ago. While I am saying I think caution is the best route, there is no doubt in my mind, that a major snowstorm has the potential to develop south of New England sometime next THursday through Saturday. Given the appreciable agreement in the overall individual GEFS ensemble members I think it is clear a storm will occur, the question is, is it with the southern stream phase or is the northern stream on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As Tip just said though, this is the time we woud expect the models to pause, diverge and then start to consolidate tomorrow at 12Z or Tues 0Z. I consider the start of the divergence to be the just pasesd 0Z. But as Will has said the ensembles have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Simply put it's suffering shear because we needed 3 things to happen: 1) block retrogrades way up N (check) 2) presence of SPV to come south when said retrograde takes place (check) 3) translation of well timed southern or intermediate (polar) stream S/W to erode the flat ridge south enough to not shear SPV as it comes down... (not checked) what we are seeing here is the model abandoning #3 - from what I am seeing. The result is that the retrograde presses the SPV south, but since the ridge is there, it gets sandwiched/sheared I'm not sure what to make of these twin streams of vorticity as well. That seems a little suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Boy what a difference 50 miles of latidude would make..lol. This is probably going to take until the final 36-48 hrs to figure out. I think the concern is that low pressure won't get its act together until it reaches the GOM, but we have almost 6 days to iron things out. What a solution for Maine. Yeah, looks great for this area but this is not the final solution. I am hopeful for plowable snow, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As Tip just said though, this is the time we woud expect the models to pause, diverge and then start to consolidate tomorrow at 12Z or Tues 0Z. I consider the start of the divergence to be the just pasesd 0Z. But as Will has said the ensembles have been similar. In the last event, the ensembles did much better than the flip flopping op runs...during all those runs where it was too far east, the ensembles kept a track near the benchmark...while that ended up being wrong too, it was less wrong than the OP runs, so they scored better. You always have to take a probabilistic approach to these things at 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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