free_man Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS congrats SNE and in particular GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS says Congrats Springfield and the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 CT Valley jackpot? Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 CT Valley jackpot? Throw it out. Nah .. eastern slopes of the Berks. Throw it out anyway. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nah .. eastern slopes of the Berks. Throw it out anyway. LOL As pretty as that is for mby--I really hate this system on many different levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well I think every weenie here can now agree there is a 0% chance that we this misses us. Everyone should have snow on the ground... Even Ryan. The big bomb idea is off the table..but I think we'll all be happy with a 3-6 or 5-10 inch event..Somewhere will pull in 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Basically that inverted trough is going to drop the most snow..Wherever that thing ends up will be the diff. between 3-4 inches and 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FWIW---this sure looks purty...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like light snow starts Thursday night..and maybe 1-3 inches before the inverted trough snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well I think every weenie here can now agree there is a 0% chance that we this misses us. Everyone should have snow on the ground... Even Ryan. The big bomb idea is off the table..but I think we'll all be happy with a 3-6 or 5-10 inch event..Somewhere will pull in 12 Yup. Figure I'll miss most of the snow, but shouldl have some down by the time I leave for MD on Friday. I'll return on Sunday to a fresh blanket, but I don't think I need to "worry" about needing to clear feet of snow to clear in order to get back into the driveway. Of course, the 06z gfs says I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 As pretty as that is for mby--I really hate this system on many different levels. Only you. My God. Well I think every weenie here can now agree there is a 0% chance that we this misses us. Everyone should have snow on the ground... Even Ryan. The big bomb idea is off the table..but I think we'll all be happy with a 3-6 or 5-10 inch event..Somewhere will pull in 12 It is? I don't think so. I think it's still a distinct possibility. The fact that the water is still muddy this close in and many ingredients are still very much present is reason enough not too dismiss the Bomb yet. Regardless, a complete whiff is becoming highly unlikely with each tick of the clock. Refresher of the snowpack at worst IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man Ray really went off the deep end multiple times last night. Will had to bring him back to life a couple times. I wonder if it was mouth to mouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well I think every weenie here can now agree there is a 0% chance that we this misses us. Everyone should have snow on the ground... Even Ryan. The big bomb idea is off the table..but I think we'll all be happy with a 3-6 or 5-10 inch event..Somewhere will pull in 12 It's not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's not off the table. I think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think it is. Define big bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Define big bomb. The blizzard last weekend. I don't see anything like that happening. 12 inches at least as of now seems the upper end for snowfall amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Albany's take: THE MOST INCONSISTENT MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF. YESTERDAY MORNINGS MODEL RUN HAD A SUB-970 HPA LOW OFF THE NJ COAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS RUN HAS A MUCH WEAKER STORM WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/SREF MEAN AND CAN GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Only you. My God. What do you mean? This system is not pretty--the inv trough scenario is so precarious and I hate that. Does that mean it won't happen and someone gets hit with it pretty good? Does it mean that this system won't morph into a more classic Miller B? No. Right now, though, I find the setup ugly. I am confident it's going to deliver snow, but in an ugly way. That's why I hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just hope we dont have the winds we had last weekend. Many fields were stripped bare when it was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also from ALB: FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FCST IS A BIT NEBULOUS HERE IN THEMEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION AND YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE E/SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS SLIDES THE H500 CLOSED LOW OVER PA...AND SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL SRN NJ. A NEW LOW FORMS EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND THEN IT GETS SLING SHOT BACK WESTWARD...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE WAVE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. WE KEPT SOME LIKELY VALUES IN NE OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRI NIGHT...AND WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES INTO SAT. A RATHER ROBUST LOW AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE STAYS OVER THE REGION ACCORDING THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS LEANER WITH THE QPF...AND PAINTS ANY DEFORMATION SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. BOTTOM LINE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The blizzard last weekend. I don't see anything like that happening. 12 inches at least as of now seems the upper end for snowfall amts I'm not entirely discounting. Looking at 0Z, GFS-GEFS,CMC,UK, and ECMWF gave MBY 6+. With GFS,CMC and probably UK approaching or exceeding a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not entirely discounting. Looking at 0Z, GFS-GEFS,CMC,UK, and ECMWF gave MBY 6+. With GFS,CMC and probably UK approaching or exceeding a foot. I like lollis exceeding 1'. Not sure why the Rev of all people is taking the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think you misunderstood my post. I'm talking more about the past few days in general, even prior to that. It's KU or bust for you I mean that's totally fine, sometimes I get that way too..but I'm just wondering why you wouldn't lower your expectations a bit for a moderate event. half hour into viewing last nights action. The issue with Ray which I can relate to is that when the possibility/setup can produce something great you get invested in that possibility. If this was an ordinary swfe that looked like a nice low end warning criteria then expectatoins would be different. We live however in volatile times with regular chances of huge storms. We should at least get one New England wide heavy snow storm this winter. I mean everyone over 12 and many over 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The inverted trof/norlun scenerio can still pull off 12-24" snows, infact they're famous for it...'92 comes to mind for SE NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The inverted trof/norlun scenerio can still pull off 12-24" snows, infact they're famous for it...'92 comes to mind for SE NH/ME Not to mention feb 69.......2-6 feet regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 for phl, its 5 storms 20 or greater. Im not sure if you can count presidents day storm as 20 plus. They had 18.4 or so with the storm, but had a couple inches with the overunning. So im not sure if that counts, if so they would be at 6 which storms? Jan 96 one of the Feb 10 storms. feb 03 was 18 i thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like lollis exceeding 1'. Not sure why the Rev of all people is taking the under. As do I. I put you in the most desirous location for such. At least at this point in time. Let's see where this thing ends up going. I love the way that the EC is described as the most mercurial of the models. Reallly makes for a roller coast ride, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not to mention feb 69.......2-6 feet regionwide. Okay your heard it here. Jerry's calling for 2-6 feet! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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