The return of winter pattern disco

[ORH_wxman]

He has a very realistic shot of overtaking me on seasonal snowfall. Maybe not a probability, but very possible. Ray could get 10" out of this and I get 2" or 3"...given the way there may be a wnw to ese southern cut off.

Well he beat you in '08-'09...he probably beats you 1 in 3 years or so. Close enough in snowfall average, yet far enough in covariance to let it happen. My place is similar, but you and I have greater covariance than you and Ray. (sometimes you and I will snow more while he gets less). Just some simple but yet quirky stats.

[ORH_wxman]

How are the EC ens, Will...

Well east, but again some spread to the west...they don't really shed light on anything. They seemed less bullish overall, but they have changed quite a bit themselves...not just the OP run.

This is the type of threat that the ensembles might have a hard time dealing with...i.e. the ensembles will change almost as much as the op runs.

[A-L-E-X]

If you think you can get "double your snowfall", then you are dreaming...it happens almost never for you, only 1995-1996 (never for me). Averaging more means you can't double it as easily...c'mon. Know your climo. You average over 3 times more than a place like DC...so its obviously harder to double your amount. Simple mathematics.

And if you think going 10" over your climo is a joke in the most positive NAO winter this past decade and not worthy of mention, then I have no idea what to tell you.

Understand that BWI gets as many 20" snowstorms as BOS does. You get more, but not by a lot. 20" storms are tough to come by...we all experienced everyone around us getting them last year, but most of us have accepted it and moved on, it happens. We had like 5-6 HECS in a 13 year period to their maybe 2? Again, climo is a b*tch. HECS is called that for a reason...they are historic.

I think you will get one soon again, but no reason to pretend because people around you have gotten them recently, that you are all of the sudden "screwed". Maybe we got unlucky last year...we almost certainly did, but its over now. I'm in the same exact boat as you. I'm the snow capital of SNE of 18"+ events (don't let Pete read this or he will blow a gasket)...but I am still waiting since Jan 2005.

Hey Will, can you dig up info on which city is in the lead for most 20" snowstorms? I know NYC has 6 (really 7, because PD2 was 19.8" there), but if you include JFK as being part of the city, you also need to include Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and Feb 2003-- in which case its 9.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well east, but again some spread to the west...they don't really shed light on anything. They seemed less bullish overall, but they have changed quite a bit themselves...not just the OP run.

This is the type of threat that the ensembles might have a hard time dealing with...i.e. the ensembles will change almost as much as the op runs.

Thanks...good enough.

[H2Otown_WX]

Oh that's the one where I got a quarter inch coating. LOL

But that winter despite being so mild...we kept finding ways to get wet snow events even after the pattern flipped in January.

Yeah I managed 62" down here..huge December with the 12-9-05 event and a moderate event on NYE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hey Will, can you dig up info on which city is in the lead for most 20" snowstorms? I know NYC has 6 (really 7, because PD2 was 19.8" there), but if you include JFK as being part of the city, you also need to include Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and Feb 2003-- in which case its 9.

Can Boston use 12 different COOP sites, too... lol

[A-L-E-X]

NYC is still in the game, but they are obviously less likely to get big snows than areas northeast in this setup. Its mostly a New England threat, but NYC is on the SW fringe of that threat so they still have a chance. I personally don't think the chance is good for something big (>4")...but it could still happen. Silly to rule anything out at this juncture.

I see some of our local forecasters going for 2-4 so it sounds right in line with your thinking.

[A-L-E-X]

Can Boston use 12 different COOP sites, too... lol

lol I dont know why not haha, as long as theyre all in Boston

We also have a ****load of extra sports teams we dont need lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Hey Will, can you dig up info on which city is in the lead for most 20" snowstorms? I know NYC has 6 (really 7, because PD2 was 19.8" there), but if you include JFK as being part of the city, you also need to include Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and Feb 2003-- in which case its 9.

I think BWI has the most...7 or 8? But they have had problems recently with inflation accusations that were actually acknowledged by the NWS. BOS has 6 and so does NYC. 19.8" doesn't count...BOS got that exact amount in Mar 1960 and it doesn't count, unles you want to include their 19.8" total too.

So thats what I have for the big cities. I know my hometown of ORH has 11.

[A-L-E-X]

Surely they must have missed you getting 125" in a season. Also getting over 70" in a season when the NAO was the most positive this last decade. ('07-'08)....don't pull that card because I can pull many more that went in your fortune.

They also had double their normal snowfall....that "card" is a joker.

70" is 70".....7" above climo....it still snows here in a +NAO, there it doesn't....know your climo, Will.....'cmon lol

You must've done really well in 1993-94, another year with a very + NAO. Can't complain about that winter down here either; did that winter have a more + NAO than 07-08 did?

I think everyone south of Philly hated us that winter; dont know what these boards would have been like back then had wx boards been around lol.

[A-L-E-X]

I think BWI has the most...7 or 8? But they have had problems recently with inflation accusations that were actually acknowledged by the NWS. BOS has 6 and so does NYC. 19.8" doesn't count...BOS got that exact amount in Mar 1960 and it doesn't count, unles you want to include their 19.8" total too.

So thats what I have for the big cities. I know my hometown of ORH has 11.

I would just because that rounds up to 20 lol.

If it was 19.4 I wouldnt count it. Do you think there are some measurement problems at NYC too, considering that the totals varied so much in Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and PD2?

[ORH_wxman]

You must've done really well in 1993-94, another year with a very + NAO. Can't complain about that winter down here either; did that winter have a more + NAO than 07-08 did?

I think everyone south of Philly hated us that winter; dont know what these boards would have been like back then had wx boards been around lol.

We got 100.2" that winter...good for 7th place all time...one of the best winters on record. It was cold too so the snow stuck around the whole time.

[Logan11]

These #'s are for all time since whenever recording began back in the middle 1800's etc?

I think BWI has the most...7 or 8? But they have had problems recently with inflation accusations that were actually acknowledged by the NWS. BOS has 6 and so does NYC. 19.8" doesn't count...BOS got that exact amount in Mar 1960 and it doesn't count, unles you want to include their 19.8" total too.

So thats what I have for the big cities. I know my hometown of ORH has 11.

[A-L-E-X]

We got 100.2" that winter...good for 7th place all time...one of the best winter son record. It was cold too so the snow stuck around the whole time.

Yeah, that has to have been the best combo of snow+cold since 1960-61. I would put 2003-04 up there too, except it was more localized and February sucked that winter-- so not nearly as good.

[ORH_wxman]

I would just because that rounds up to 20 lol.

If it was 19.4 I wouldnt count it. Do you think there are some measurement problems at NYC too, considering that the totals varied so much in Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and PD2?

There's always a few measurement issues at every site. For every problem that Boston had measuring 17" when it was really 20" (or vice versa), there was the same problem in NYC...unless the station has been flagged for inflating (like BWI...but even then, I'm nit sure their 20" storms would be affected much)....then its probably fine to compared them for a certain threshold. 20" storms are hard to get...where a place like Boston surges ahead is on 10" snowstorms.

[Logan11]

Well in this past storm CP was on the lowest end it seems for NYC. Brooklyn seemed to have 24" and Staten Island as much as 29".... It seems to me in 1996 CP was also on the lower end.

I would just because that rounds up to 20 lol.

If it was 19.4 I wouldnt count it. Do you think there are some measurement problems at NYC too, considering that the totals varied so much in Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983 and PD2?

[H2Otown_WX]

We got 100.2" that winter...good for 7th place all time...one of the best winters on record. It was cold too so the snow stuck around the whole time.

I think I could die a happy man if I ever got 100.2" in a winter.

[ORH_wxman]

These #'s are for all time since whenever recording began back in the middle 1800's etc?

Depends on the station...ORH current site began in 1948...but had obs back to 1892 but that site was much lower down and further south. BOS is from early 1870s...but again, the site changed.

[tombo82685]

for phl, its 5 storms 20 or greater. Im not sure if you can count presidents day storm as 20 plus. They had 18.4 or so with the storm, but had a couple inches with the overunning. So im not sure if that counts, if so they would be at 6

[A-L-E-X]

There's always a few measurement issues at every site. For every problem that Boston had measuring 17" when it was really 20" (or vice versa), there was the same problem in NYC...unless the station has been flagged for inflating (like BWI...but even then, I'm nit sure their 20" storms would be affected much)....then its probably fine to compared them for a certain threshold. 20" storms are hard to get...where a place like Boston surges ahead is on 10" snowstorms.

Agreed, and the funny thing is the number of 20" snowstorms seems to becoming much more common over the past decade and a half or so. I wonder how much of this is because of the 6 hr measuring technique? If Feb 1978 was measured that way, it might have been a three foot plus snowstorm for BOS and PVD.

Doesn't Boston average something like a 10 " snowstorm once every other year? I think NYC only averages an 8 incher every three years and if you look back at the mid 80s- early 90s time frame, there wasnt a single double digit snowstorm to be found down here.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, that has to have been the best combo of snow+cold since 1960-61. I would put 2003-04 up there too, except it was more localized and February sucked that winter-- so not nearly as good.

'93-'94 was amazing, but I actually prefer the winter before that...'92-'93...I know it wasn't nearly as good there (not even close)...but here it was epic...we had the Dec 1992 nor easter that gave us 33" of snow and then the March '93 superstorm that gave us 20"...and we got 120" for the winter and it was reasonably cold...not well below average, but near average, and after Jan 10th, it was fairly cold.

Just an amazing winter. We got so many 8-10" events that winter in between the two monsters. It seemed like every week we got a 7-10" storm after early January.

[A-L-E-X]

Well in this past storm CP was on the lowest end it seems for NYC. Brooklyn seemed to have 24" and Staten Island as much as 29".... It seems to me in 1996 CP was also on the lower end.

Yup, wind seems to be a huge factor-- especially at the airports, for making accurate measurements.

BTW note that on the NESIS info for that storm, they didnt include any of the 24-30 inch amts. I have to think it would have been a high end 3 if the map they used was more like the one which NWS OKX put out.

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed, and the funny thing is the number of 20" snowstorms seems to becoming much more common over the past decade and a half or so. I wonder how much of this is because of the 6 hr measuring technique? If Feb 1978 was measured that way, it might have been a three foot plus snowstorm for BOS and PVD.

Doesn't Boston average something like a 10 " snowstorm once every other year? I think NYC only averages an 8 incher every three years and if you look back at the mid 80s- early 90s time frame, there wasnt a single double digit snowstorm to be found down here.

I think Boston averages a 10" snowstorm about once every 1.4 years IIRC....but that number has been getting more frequent. I do think the 20" thing is because of measuring techniques. I have no doubt that if 1978 happened again today, Boston would come in with 35"...they weren't married tot he 6 hourly method back then. A lot of places still arent (including my own airport)...there is not requirement to do it every 6 hours...its just the "most frequent" you can do it. You can actually do it just once in 24 hours and its still legit...so that means you can have 2 different obs that might differ because of that method and they are both totally legit in the record books.

[A-L-E-X]

'93-'94 was amazing, but I actually prefer the winter before that...'92-'93...I know it wasn't nearly as good there (not even close)...but here it was epic...we had the Dec 1992 nor easter that gave us 33" of snow and then the March '93 superstorm that gave us 20"...and we got 120" for the winter and it was reasonably cold...not well below average, but near average, and after Jan 10th, it was fairly cold.

Just an amazing winter. We got so many 8-10" events that winter in between the two monsters. It seemed like every week we got a 7-10" storm after early January.

Yeah, I forgot about that for a second-- a snowy version of Dec 1992 sounds a lot like what March 1888 would have been. Your location was great for March 1993.... that was a true bookend winter, with moderate events in between (I got 2-4 out of some of those, so it was actually better one here than the past several that came before it.)

You would have been amused by how much they (the mets down here) were freaking out by 4 inches of snow. They were saying that NYers had become like residents of the deep South because of the lack of snow the years prior to that. They were right-- we had a ton of accidents in that storm, simply because people here were not used to driving on snowy roads anymore.

[A-L-E-X]

I think Boston averages a 10" snowstorm about once every 1.4 years IIRC....but that number has been getting more frequent. I do think the 20" thing is because of measuring techniques. I have no doubt that if 1978 happened again today, Boston would come in with 35"...they weren't married tot he 6 hourly method back then. A lot of places still arent (including my own airport)...there is not requirement to do it every 6 hours...its just the "most frequent" you can do it. You can actually do it just once in 24 hours and its still legit...so that means you can have 2 different obs that might differ because of that method and they are both totally legit in the record books.

That's very interesting-- so with those once every 24 hr measurements, you might get a snowfall = snowcover kind of deal. I bet in borderline scenarios when mixing might be an issue or with frequently changing snowfall ratios, they'd measure more often, to avoid the problem of melting snow between measuring intervals.

I agree that measuring every 6 hours is too much, but I do think that, especially with mixing and melting an issue, measurements should be made more often to account for snow that might be missed.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I forgot about that for a second-- a snowy version of Dec 1992 sounds a lot like what March 1888 would have been. Your location was great for March 1993.... that was a true bookend winter, with moderate events in between (I got 2-4 out of some of those, so it was actually better one here than the past several that came before it.)

You would have been amused by how much they (the mets down here) were freaking out by 4 inches of snow. They were saying that NYers had become like residents of the deep South because of the lack of snow the years prior to that. They were right-- we had a ton of accidents in that storm, simply because people here were not used to driving on snowy roads anymore.

Alex, I actually wouldn't have, lol. I was a young elementary school weenie back then. I moved back up here in 1988...and I experienced the longest stretch of no 10" snowstorms in ORH on record since 1948. I understand the late 80s and early 90s snow drought....it hit us just like you guys down there....I remember hearing when 3-6" was forecast, I'd got nuts, lol. I thought it was the biggest snowstorm coming. I would tell everyone "we are getting 6 inches of snow!!!" (of course you always tell everyone the high end range when they say 3-6...its 6" in the weenie mind)

What an absolutely horrific period to be a snow lover. It broke my heart so many times at my young age....I never thought I would see a 12" snowstorm...even though my grand parents told me "we see 12" snowstorms almost every year, maybe 20" if you are lucky"....we went 4 years without one even close to that!!!. We couldn't even break 10"

December 1992 was my breakout party to rid us of that snow drought, lol.

[Logan11]

The 6Z NAM at 84 hours looks fairly positive to me....

Alex, I actually wouldn't have, lol. I was a young elementary school weenie back then. I moved back up here in 1988...and I experienced the longest stretch of no 10" snowstorms in ORH on record since 1948. I understand the late 80s and early 90s snow drought....it hit us just like you guys down there....I remember hearing when 3-6" was forecast, I'd got nuts, lol. I thought it was the biggest snowstorm coming. I would tell everyone "we are getting 6 inches of snow!!!" (of course you always tell everyone the high end range when they say 3-6...its 6" in the weenie mind)

What an absolutely horrific period to be a snow lover. It broke my heart so many times at my young age....I never thought I would see a 12" snowstorm...even though my grand parents told me "we see 12" snowstorms almost every year, maybe 20" if you are lucky"....we went 4 years without one even close to that!!!. We couldn't even break 10"

December 1992 was my breakout party to rid us of that snow drought, lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Alex, I actually wouldn't have, lol. I was a young elementary school weenie back then. I moved back up here in 1988...and I experienced the longest stretch of no 10" snowstorms in ORH on record since 1948. I understand the late 80s and early 90s snow drought....it hit us just like you guys down there....I remember hearing when 3-6" was forecast, I'd got nuts, lol. I thought it was the biggest snowstorm coming. I would tell everyone "we are getting 6 inches of snow!!!" (of course you always tell everyone the high end range when they say 3-6...its 6" in the weenie mind)

What an absolutely horrific period to be a snow lover. It broke my heart so many times at my young age....I never thought I would see a 12" snowstorm...even though my grand parents told me "we see 12" snowstorms almost every year, maybe 20" if you are lucky"....we went 4 years without one even close to that!!!. We couldn't even break 10"

December 1992 was my breakout party to rid us of that snow drought, lol.

Tell me about it, Will-- I mean I didnt have a single snow day at all-- just a few school delays and early cancelations when we had those 3-6 snowfalls, which were few and far between. Feb 1983 came at the tail end of a friday afternoon and most of our other "snowstorms" were on weekends (and they were few and far between-- I think we got like one 6-8 inch snowstorm in the mid 80s and didnt see another one for 5 years lol, and then after the next one, there was another 5 year gap.)

Im really starting to get into the solar stuff, and it looks like the sun was outputting a lot more energy back in the late 80s and early 90s, then it's doing now. What a crazy time to be at the wrong end of the cycle lol. Thinking about it from an astronomical point of view, it all makes sense though-- the vast majority of stars out there are variables. I've always thought that the stars which werent variables are variables too-- its just that the changes arent enough for us to easily measure (or the time span of the changes is too large.) We're just starting to learn how complex solar behavior really is and maybe it's why we had those crazy winters back in the late 80s and early 90s, when every winter seemed to outdo the prior one in snowlessness and every summer seemed to be a scorcher that outdid the last one (everything peaked in the 1990 and 1991 time frame with 22 out of 24 above normal months here, and most of them were FAR above normal-- not just a little lol.)

Things really seemed to start changing with the Pinatubo eruption; we had a soggy and cool summer right after that, and then 92-93 came along. Maybe we were too focused on Pinatubo and forgot to look too closely at the sun coming off its peak in the early 90s.

[free_man]

Looks overall like adv/warning snowfall for the Fri-Sat period, best chance north of the pike for higher totals.

[free_man]

6z gfs looks like crap, throw it out