CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Just seems like a mess, to me. It brings the western head right into eastern areas. I can see what it's doing at H7, albeit vaguely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll take you and Scott's word for it, but it a looks like a disjointed, amorphous bag of WTF, to me. '78 had a PV (or SPV to cure Tip and Brian's fetish for not calling it an official pv) diving down into the OH Valley and getting stretched a bit before consolidating again all south of SNE and producing of course one of the biggest monsters ever here. Its silly to expect that again or even try to expect it, but when you see the 90h Euro 5h panel, you start to think. This particular solution just kept getting stretched out which is bizarre but who knows. Trust us, this wasn't far from a ridiculous solution. Obviously ridiculous solutions need everything to go right which is why you should never expect them...but to at least see the chance on the table is a nice thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah that was almost looking like a '78 HECS or something at 90h...but it got stretched out obscenely, lol. I love the idea of putting all the action at 5h south of us...that usually can only mean good things. I didn't see that rubber band style stretch coming. I think its safe to say it probably wouldn't play out like that. I didn't either...yet another type of solution..lol. I'd like to see a concentrated VM dive se and not go so far offshore. The euro eventually did this, so I took that as a positive. I was rather pleased by the outcome at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 or SPV to cure Tip and Brian's fetish for not calling it an official pv don't attach me with SPV...I hate that term...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not all systems are pretty, but if you get 6 or 8 inches out of it you take it. Then maybe more next week. I'll take you and Scott's word for it, but it a looks like a disjointed, amorphous bag of WTF, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I didn't either...yet another type of solution..lol. I'd like to see a concentrated VM dive se and not go so far offshore. The euro eventually did this, so I took that as a positive. I was rather pleased by the outcome at this stage of the game. Yeah I think its very hard not to be excited by this type of solution at 108 hours form the Euro unless you have the qpf fetish at this stage...for this lead time, we have some excellent possibilities. No guarantee any of this works out of course and people should realize a 1-3" event is just as likely (if not more) then a major event...but its good to see this NOT trending worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 90 hrs, the vortex is elongating like wants to join the frey.... '78 had a PV (or SPV to cure Tip and Brian's fetish for not calling it an official pv) diving down into the OH Valley and getting stretched a bit before consolidating again all south of SNE and producing of course one of the biggest monsters ever here. Its silly to expect that again or even try to expect it, but when you see the 90h Euro 5h panel, you start to think. This particular solution just kept getting stretched out which is bizarre but who knows. Trust us, this wasn't far from a ridiculous solution. Obviously ridiculous solutions need everything to go right which is why you should never expect them...but to at least see the chance on the table is a nice thing. Yea, I thought it was poised for a clean phase, too.....but everything went to sh** shortly thereafter......I think by hr 96-102 I knew this run wouldn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 don't attach me with SPV...I hate that term...lol. I normally just call it "a vortex" but sometimes get caught up in calling it a pv since its easier to type less words. I've developed more of a "met syndrome" with writing over the past 3 years in using more abbreviations if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray check out the Kocin book on '78. It actually helps to have the PV stretch a bit and have a more concentrated vortmax lead the way. When this happens, it allows for good PVA downstream of the vortmax, and eventual cyclogenesis. Obviously you don't want it all mucked up by several other vortmaxes or having the main vortmax kick too far ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray check out the Kocin book on '78. It actually helps to have the PV stretch a bit and have a more concentrated vortmax lead the way. When this happens, it allows for good PVA downstream of the vortmax, and eventual cyclogenesis. Obviously you don't want it all mucked up by several other vortmaxes or having the main vortmax kick too far ots. What went wrong here....I was thinking it just escaped a bit too far out.... The '78 vortex dove down to the Delmarva....much further s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What went wrong here....I was thinking it just escaped a bit too far out.... The '78 vortex dove down to the Delmarva....much further s. Well this drove even further southeast, if you check out H5. It may have kicked out a little too far se, but for some 96+ hrs out, I can't complain and it is a huge improvement from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What went wrong here....I was thinking it just escaped a bit too far out.... The '78 vortex dove down to the Delmarva....much further s. This one got stretched out too much..but it wasnt far from a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NEW HPC QPF chart is essentially the 00z EURO....Rip\Read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Big differences are the much weaker ridge in the mid section and the squeezed out PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And the 5h low is diving down about 100 miles east in longitude versus '78. I suppose a function of the sharper ridge in '78. I recall that day like it was yesterday...scary to think it's 33 years ago. Big difference is the much weaker ridge in the mid section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We can basically lock in measurable snowfall for majority of SNE imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Big differences are the much weaker ridge in the mid section and the squeezed out PV. And the steroid block over North Central Canada. Aside from the PV positioning it's basically a completely different upper air pattern in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice maps Brian...you can see how close that it is to a ridiculous solution. Details are obviously different and that makes a big difference....but we are talking 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'd like to know why the EURO doesn't depict the robust inverted trough that the GFS and GEM do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The HPC forecast discussion 12Z release hits upon every aspect of what's being bounced around tonight. The 1am. thoughts are direct. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html With such a block in place one would think that a larger hit over a 1-3" looks more probable. After that looking like a five day repeating pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice maps Brian...you can see how close that it is to a ridiculous solution. Details are obviously different and that makes a big difference....but we are talking 4 days out. Not going to lie, I was kinda surprised the Euro went back towards this type of solution. It's actually really close to tugging the entire thing northwest again..similarly to last night, but to a less dramatic southward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And the steroid block over North Central Canada. Aside from the PV positioning it's basically a completely different upper air pattern in Canada. Imagine the steroid block in Canada in 2011 being linked up the ridge (not very far from that)...that essentially takes the place of the 1978 ridge...you can see the 1978 ridge is almost pinched off acting as a block in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And the steroid block over North Central Canada. Aside from the PV positioning it's basically a completely different upper air pattern in Canada. That is what I mean by "the ridge in the mid section". Did anyone ever catch the extended UK..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That is what I mean by "the ridge in the mid section". Did anyone ever catch the extended UK..... Here's the only extended link I've got. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/f120.gif Loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 UK blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 UK blows. No it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm always pretty nervous when the models show much of the snowfall coming from an inverted trough set-up. Remember the NAM ridiculous inverted trough from a few weeks ago. LOL In the end it was a few inches of snow in parts of SNE and a half inch back to here. I'd like to know why the EURO doesn't depict the robust inverted trough that the GFS and GEM do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That is what I mean by "the ridge in the mid section". Did anyone ever catch the extended UK..... here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 UK blows. Doesn't look that bad for your location to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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