CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Sounds like almost the exact same thing the Euro did with the HECS last weekend..Had it way too far east with too much energy out front..then corrected well west . Seems to be it's big error pattern this year Yeah not sure how it will play out, but hey, if it is only a 3-6" deal...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah not sure how it will play out, but hey, if it is only a 3-6" deal...I'll take it. Agreed..just cannot wait till the cold front gets here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take the 6z DGEX. That solution would be more of a miracle than the Day after X-Mas storm. 5 feet for the whites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I still like what I see in the long run. The trough axis shifts farther west, and you can tell by looking at the surface depiction that we may have some cst lows developing somewhere in the MA or southeast. Canada is going to be extremely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take the 6z DGEX. lol ... yeah, I just took a gander at that on my tour of overnight guidance. Holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Sounds like almost the exact same thing the Euro did with the HECS last weekend..Had it way too far east with too much energy out front..then corrected well west . Seems to be it's big error pattern this year I might have my days off, but at this time range I believe the EC had the other storm tucked in off NJ. It then headed east before it returned to the GFS fold with the western SLP. Either way, worthy of a little attention at this juncure. Some good trending and consensus today/tonight will do wonders for the weenie ffactor. 37.7/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I still like what I see in the long run. The trough axis shifts farther west, and you can tell by looking at the surface depiction that we may have some cst lows developing somewhere in the MA or southeast. Canada is going to be extremely cold. D10 Euro/GFS is one of the coldest looking patterns I've seen in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Agreed..just cannot wait till the cold front passes and I can finally dip below freezing at some point later tonight. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 D10 Euro/GFS is one of the coldest looking patterns I've seen in the past few years. I like how Canada and the Plains get extremely cold. Eventually it seeps into eastern Canada. With the trough that far west, we'll hopefully get some storm chances. Heck it's not out of the question we get a messy swfe with a storm trying to cut west, but at least we should have some storm chances I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 D10 Euro/GFS is one of the coldest looking patterns I've seen in the past few years. Unlike many here (it seems), I'll take bitterly cold even if there's no snow. I like the winter weather. Extreme snow, extreme cold. All good with me (the former of course being top preference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 I might have my days off, but at this time range I believe the EC had the other storm tucked in off NJ. It then headed east before it returned to the GFS fold with the western SLP. Either way, worthy of a little attention at this juncure. Some good trending and consensus today/tonight will do wonders for the weenie ffactor. 37.7/36 Everything looks great for a major snowstorm on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Everything looks great for a major snowstorm on Friday I agree things look good for getting some snow. Whether it will be major (and for whom) is still a very open question. As BOX says this morning: THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL FIVE DAYS OR MORE AWAY...AN ETERNITY WHEN IT COMES TO WEATHER MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 That solution would be more of a miracle than the Day after X-Mas storm. 5 feet for the whites? Some decent solutions for us and NNE. I'll take my chances with the EC ens mean moving the H5 low through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 ALY sums things up well for GC here. Folks in the heart of BOX/GYX territory have greater confidence as opposed to my guarded optimism. Of course, we remember how the last event played..... FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST HIGHER POPS...IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND FORECAST SNOW RATHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS. AS WITH THE LAST MAJOR EVENT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM LITTLE OR NO SNOW...TO WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I like how Canada and the Plains get extremely cold. Eventually it seeps into eastern Canada. With the trough that far west, we'll hopefully get some storm chances. Heck it's not out of the question we get a messy swfe with a storm trying to cut west, but at least we should have some storm chances I think. seeping cold ftw! So much better than overwhelming cold. Up here with a snowpack it doesn't require overwhelming cold to get well below zero. If there is cold poised above us and a nice snowpack and a sneaky quebec high we are in serious business. Even stuff that looks like it will cut west will end up going underneath us. This will keep us busy between the every 2 weeks or so coastal monsters. I've had 13 inches so far this season. I'm going with 45 as the over under by Jan 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 6z NOGAPS takes away it's 0z HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah not sure how it will play out, but hey, if it is only a 3-6" deal...I'll take it. such a convoluted set-up with the energy transfer etc...people probably shouldn't go into this one (right now) thinking anything more than that. it certainly could be a more interesting evolution but a lot of moving parts on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 such a convoluted set-up with the energy transfer etc...people probably shouldn't go into this one (right now) thinking anything more than that. it certainly could be a more interesting evolution but a lot of moving parts on this one. Yeah I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling with this, but I'll take anything. It certainly could trend better as we get closer, but I don't feel something major right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling with this, but I'll take anything. It certainly could trend better as we get closer, but I don't feel something major right now. Same here. Hopefully we see things gel in the right places at the right time. As long as there isn't a sne snow hole... i will be fine with some accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling with this, but I'll take anything. It certainly could trend better as we get closer, but I don't feel something major right now. I'm taking the approach of Fat Sam in "Fletch": "when it comes, it comes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 LOL..Ji and Zwyts blowing up my FB page with snow jealousy..Those guys are in for a long dry winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 LOL..Ji and Zwyts blowing up my FB page with snow jealousy..Those guys are in for a long dry winter AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro and NAM trying to sneak some precip up here late today and this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro and NAM trying to sneak some precip up here late today and this evening. Sneaky snow. I may even get a few renegade flakes up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro ensembles had a 994mb SE of LI and then brings it 100 mi E of BOS. I get the feeling that we are going to have issues digging 5h deep enough though for a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro and NAM trying to sneak some precip up here late today and this evening. Yeah I saw that...maybe just enough precip behind the front over e ma/nh/me for some flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Sneaky snow. I may even get a few renegade flakes up this way. Some of the hi-res models do this as well. The HRRR , really blows the qpf up. I don't know if that will happen, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Some of the hi-res models do this as well. The HRRR , really blows the qpf up. I don't know if that will happen, but something to watch. Cool. I'll keep an eye out for the WWAs to be issued. lol I guess yesterday's buzz over next weekend is waning. I'll cling to the 6z DGEX like a wino clinging to his last bottle of Thunderbird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cool. I'll keep an eye out for the WWAs to be issued. lol I guess yesterday's buzz over next weekend is waning. I'll cling to the 6z DGEX like a wino clinging to his last bottle of Thunderbird. I don't think anything has changed since yesterday regarding the end of the week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cool. I'll keep an eye out for the WWAs to be issued. lol I guess yesterday's buzz over next weekend is waning. I'll cling to the 6z DGEX like a wino clinging to his last bottle of Thunderbird. LOL, certainly no WWA but maybe some flakes for some. Next weekend could very well be interesting up your way. I don't think people should completely write it off when we are 6 days out. I suppose if you want something that gives you 1-2' then maybe. Euro buries Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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