dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18Z ens look about the same as 12Z to me. Yes, 4mb stronger..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The reason we keep seeing all sort of weird solutions is because we have a very anomalous or "weird" setup. We can try and get the entire vortex underneath us (ala 00z Euro)...we can try and get an extension or "lobe" of it underneath us and closed off (GFS and Ukie and to a lesser extent the delayed Euro)...or we can just have most of it go north of us with maybe just a bit of vorticity trying to get south of us giving a light event...ala GGEM. There's a bunch of different evolutions of this setup so we are going to see a lot of weird solutions...some will look amazing and others will look pretty boring. We just have to wait it out. We are too far out to say anything very conclusive about how this whole evolution will take place. Probably the only semi-confident thing (and emphasis on "semi") I would say is that the further north and east you are anywhere between CT and S Maine, the better probability of getting a large event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would say the biggest problem we have is the positioning of the H5 low. Models are clearing going back and forth on their handling of this potent PV. Ridging out west would only support maybe a 37-41n latitude placement of the core of the H5 low. EURO op and ensemble mean might have some weight to it, got to see better PNA ridging to get this PV further south. 18z NAM looks good towards hour 84. Models see several northern stream shortwaves moving through the backside and underneath the PV as it moves southward. These shortwaves dig the trough enough so that the PV moves further south. The timing of these shortwaves and potential southern stream energy will have a major role on the track of the PV. I would wait another 72 hours before jumping on these solutions just yet. By Thursday 12z runs will have a better clue as well as enough lead time for watches to be issued if indeed this snowstorm materializes. Biggest fear is the 12z EURO op and Ensembles showing a further northward placed PV. This would delay the intensification of the surface low and where it gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would say the biggest problem we have is the positioning of the H5 low. Models are clearing going back and forth on their handling of this potent PV. Ridging out west would only support maybe a 37-41n latitude placement of the core of the H5 low. EURO op and ensemble mean might have some weight to it, got to see better PNA ridging to get this PV further south. 18z NAM looks good towards hour 84. Models see several northern stream shortwaves moving through the backside and underneath the PV as it moves southward. These shortwaves dig the trough enough so that the PV moves further south. The timing of these shortwaves and potential southern stream energy will have a major role on the track of the PV. I would wait another 72 hours before jumping on these solutions just yet. By Thursday 12z runs will have a better clue as well as enough lead time for watches to be issued if indeed this snowstorm materializes. Biggest fear is the 12z EURO op and Ensembles showing a further northward placed PV. This would delay the intensification of the surface low and where it gets captured. Because I am a nerd ...can we please refer to them as SPV, because they clearly are not polar vortexes because they are in the sub-domain. PV is essentially the annular ring around the pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Now, the 18z GoCraps is meh. WOTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL, model chaos. This one's coming home to roost. Seems like a strikingly familiar theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The reason we keep seeing all sort of weird solutions is because we have a very anomalous or "weird" setup. We can try and get the entire vortex underneath us (ala 00z Euro)...we can try and get an extension or "lobe" of it underneath us and closed off (GFS and Ukie and to a lesser extent the delayed Euro)...or we can just have most of it go north of us with maybe just a bit of vorticity trying to get south of us giving a light event...ala GGEM. There's a bunch of different evolutions of this setup so we are going to see a lot of weird solutions...some will look amazing and others will look pretty boring. We just have to wait it out. We are too far out to say anything very conclusive about how this whole evolution will take place. Probably the only semi-confident thing (and emphasis on "semi") I would say is that the further north and east you are anywhere between CT and S Maine, the better probability of getting a large event. Agree 100%. And I would add that I'm confident that people should have expectations in check. 24.7/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The reason we keep seeing all sort of weird solutions is because we have a very anomalous or "weird" setup. We can try and get the entire vortex underneath us (ala 00z Euro)...we can try and get an extension or "lobe" of it underneath us and closed off (GFS and Ukie and to a lesser extent the delayed Euro)...or we can just have most of it go north of us with maybe just a bit of vorticity trying to get south of us giving a light event...ala GGEM. There's a bunch of different evolutions of this setup so we are going to see a lot of weird solutions...some will look amazing and others will look pretty boring. We just have to wait it out. We are too far out to say anything very conclusive about how this whole evolution will take place. Probably the only semi-confident thing (and emphasis on "semi") I would say is that the further north and east you are anywhere between CT and S Maine, the better probability of getting a large event. 12z ec might be the most straight forward evolution of the bunch. While it isn't as exciting as some of the other solutions...I think it offers the least chance of a screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z ec might be the most straight forward evolution of the bunch. While it isn't as exciting as some of the other solutions...I think it offers the least chance of a screw job. I know this will give Kev an aneurysm, but I'd rather nothing than 3" over 12 hours......just enough to make me clean the car off and then smother it in salt. I'm probably in the minority on that, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL, model chaos. This one's coming home to roost. Seems like a strikingly familiar theme. Need to change the logo from member to president......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know this will give Kev an aneurysm, but I'd rather nothing than 3" over 12 hours......just enough to make me clean the car off and then smother it in salt. I'm probably in the minority on that, but.... Well I don't necessarily think it has to equate to advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know this will give Kev an aneurysm, but I'd rather nothing than 3" over 12 hours......just enough to make me clean the car off and then smother it in salt. I'm probably in the minority on that, but.... Yup. Remember the first tenet of weeniesm: Some snow is always better than no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know this will give Kev an aneurysm, but I'd rather nothing than 3" over 12 hours......just enough to make me clean the car off and then smother it in salt. I'm probably in the minority on that, but.... That has to be one of the lamest reasons I've ever heard. I don't know that I've ever heard a good reason to not want snow but that one is just LAMO. Are you sure you were in the Marines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I don't necessarily think it has to equate to advisory snows. I think that would be most likely given the EURO outcome, but you know better than I. Doesn't matter what anyone of us want, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That has to be one of the lamest reasons I've ever heard. I don't know that I've ever heard a good reason to not want snow but that one is just LAMO. Are you sure you were in the Marines? Yes, not sure why you are going there. I don't care what you think of my rationale....it's fine that you don't share the same view.....I'm all set with nuisance snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know this will give Kev an aneurysm, but I'd rather nothing than 3" over 12 hours......just enough to make me clean the car off and then smother it in salt. I'm probably in the minority on that, but.... well if its going to be cold, then id rather have some snow, nothing worse than whats out than cold and brown. but if theres only going to be 3 inches, id rather it be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think that would be most likely given the EURO outcome, but you know better than I. Doesn't matter what anyone of us want, anyway. It is what it is, Thats how i look at it, If it whiffs or hits, Does not matter to me, We will have more chances going forward...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Need to change the logo from member to president......... LOL, how about Co-Chairman along with Ginx and Jerry. I just want some easterner to tell me I have little to no chance of seeing accumulating snow then I can lock in a regionwide snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd bang the 18z GFS as hard as messenger bangs the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I understand Ray's rationale but when it snows...even a little...I feel better. So bring it....in any amount. Just don't mix it with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I understand Ray's rationale but when it snows...even a little...I feel better. So bring it....in any amount. Just don't mix it with rain. I understand your's.....at least some are rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It is what it is, Thats how i look at it, If it whiffs or hits, Does not matter to me, We will have more chances going forward...... That, I feel pretty good about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL, how about Co-Chairman along with Ginx and Jerry. I just want some easterner to tell me I have little to no chance of seeing accumulating snow then I can lock in a regionwide snowstorm. Yes co chairs work, Have to stay optimistic, Pattern looks good going forward..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That, I feel pretty good about. Thats all we can ask, Its a far cry to what i dealt with here for snow last year......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 BTW photos from the blizzard not far from Taunton NWSFO.... The roof of the shed was smashed and there's enough tree damage in the area near the Sharon/Easton/Foxboro town lines to keep homeowners busy into June. I only see 1 photo there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well....I'm leaving work rather late...because I realized after looking at these fukkn models I had work to do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I don't necessarily think it has to equate to advisory snows. I dont either...it looked for a frame or two there the Euro was going to give us a monster storm...but it kind of got interfered with...but doesn't mean that would happen again given a similar evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 well if its going to be cold, then id rather have some snow, nothing worse than whats out than cold and brown. but if theres only going to be 3 inches, id rather it be warm. Tenet #2: Any winter weather--even if it is cold and snowfree--is better than non winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hit me fanny, man. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes, not sure why you are going there. I don't care what you think of my rationale....it's fine that you don't share the same view.....I'm all set with nuisance snows. My image of a Marine is a rugged can do type that is undaunted by hardship or discomfort. Sweeping a nice 3" refresher of the car seems like a fairly easy thing to do. I'm just needling you Ray don't get your dander up. It's just in my book there is no such thing as a nuisance snow. 3" or 3', it's all delicious to me. What would you rather have 3" of snow or HHH swamp azz weather? ENJOY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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