HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nothing personal..but so many start off by saying..looks great or looks bad..and then post well on 2nd thought etc..I just like to watch them as they come in then comment..Just me From the sidelines I do like having the running comments as each panel shows... Helps me sort out a little of what's happening. Then I like the big picture explanation given by other folks (you for ex) that wrap it up ... until the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Maybe not 2ft, but for it to retrograde back in and bomb out? Sure, why not? Because how often does that really happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, verbatim, that's what the 18z GFS shows for you. Right 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The fact is, Some on here are getting it on the models a lot sooner then on NCEP site, Like 4-5 panels ahead............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It gives your old house a blizzard. Come back. Funny I'm actually supposed to be there this weekend. I hope were not seeing a north trend in the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Because how often does that really happen? We've had a quite a few retrograders in this pattern going back to last year. With the H5 low barreling in underneath us it's not a far-fetched scenario. Of course it could still all crap out at this range and leave no one with more than advisory snows, but I think something like this is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Right 6-12 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Because how often does that really happen? How often does any extreme solution happen? The retro bombs are no less frequent than 2/78 events. Once in a rare age. Still not the point because we're discussing what the model says and not forecasting the event 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With the convoluted setup, this solution could verify just as much as the euro ensembles. Everything is on the table...just be happy that model runs show a hit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Inv trough retrocane would be pretty hilarious if it actually came to fruition since it's shown up so many times the last few days. Once on the euro, a few times on GFS, not sure about the other foreign models. It's been really really juicy on every model when it does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've had a quite a few retrograders in this pattern going back to last year. With the H5 low barreling in underneath us it's not a far-fetched scenario. Of course it could still all crap out at this range and leave no one with more than advisory snows, but I think something like this is still on the table. I agree Brian, Up until last year if someone said that the storm would retrograde west and hit most of Mass and Ct people would have thought you had rocks in your head because it was so long since that scenario unfolded, We have seen more storms playing out like this in 1 years time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've had a quite a few retrograders in this pattern going back to last year. With the H5 low barreling in underneath us it's not a far-fetched scenario. Of course it could still all crap out at this range and leave no one with more than advisory snows, but I think something like this is still on the table. Gotcha. I think it's one more to note but place under the still sorting it out category with mostly everything now. How often does any extreme solution happen? The retro bombs are no less frequent than 2/78 events. Once in a rare age. Still not the point because we're discussing what the model says and not forecasting the event 5 days away. Sure, that's what you were talking about. Wasn't my point. Seemed like another somewhat unlikely/odd solution to add to the bunch we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It would fit the notion of last years pattern not crushed so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Inv trough retrocane would be pretty hilarious if it actually came to fruition since it's shown up so many times the last few days. Once on the euro, a few times on GFS, not sure about the other foreign models. It's been really really juicy on every model when it does this. Most all models have either a hook west or retrograde type scenario as the ULL captures the surface low..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol checkin 18z on my phone on bike at gym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol checkin 18z on my phone on bike at gym You will like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol checkin 18z on my phone on bike at gym Hit the weights, and be a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Most all models have either a hook west or retrograde type scenario as the ULL captures the surface low..... Not with such an extreme negative trough and a capture from so far out. D9-D10 Miller A shoots up the coast to right over my head fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gotcha. I think it's one more to note but place under the still sorting it out category with mostly everything now. Sure, that's what you were talking about. Wasn't my point. Seemed like another somewhat unlikely/odd solution to add to the bunch we have. I think we're getting signals that ultimately will likely get sorted out in a more conventional setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It would fit the notion of last years pattern not crushed so far south. Some of us would like a little crush south--perhaps a dent would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I agree Brian, Up until last year if someone said that the storm would retrograde west and hit most of Mass and Ct people would have thought you had rocks in your head because it was so long since that scenario unfolded, We have seen more storms playing out like this in 1 years time..... retro is the new SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Lol checkin 18z on my phone on bike at gym :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not with such an extreme negative trough and a capture from so far out. D9-D10 Miller A shoots up the coast to right over my head fwiw. 12z gfs had the day 9-10 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 does look similar doesn't it - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 retro is the new SWFE Apparently.......yeah it seems........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've had a quite a few retrograders in this pattern going back to last year. With the H5 low barreling in underneath us it's not a far-fetched scenario. Of course it could still all crap out at this range and leave no one with more than advisory snows, but I think something like this is still on the table. That January storm taught me something. I was skeptical of getting much snow with raging nw winds, but never underestimate the TROWAL. In fact, the forcing in the mid levels really helps out those who normally downslope..like deep interior mtn valleys out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18Z ens look about the same as 12Z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z ensembles don't seem all that different from 12z, given the spread..maybe a little east, but also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 BTW photos from the blizzard not far from Taunton NWSFO.... The roof of the shed was smashed and there's enough tree damage in the area near the Sharon/Easton/Foxboro town lines to keep homeowners busy into June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z ensembles don't seem all that different from 12z, given the spread..maybe a little east, but also stronger. Down to 980mb from 984mb on 12z i believe, Basically the same track.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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