weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Anybody else really confused on what could happen here? Is it an inverted trough? Is it a Miller B? Is it a retrograde? I'm confused... Will or Scott can you help? Read the thread. Both have posted frequently along with others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The CPC analogs are now putting late Jan 1978 (post Cleveland bomb) as a match to the pattern D8 ensembles (both GGEM and GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Haven't seen this posted. nice find cold day out here. mike what do you have for a P&C high tommorrow. (was thinking they would be lower)....either way .seems like the ice out there will be thickening for the next 300 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The CPC analogs are now putting late Jan 1978 (post Cleveland bomb) as a match to the pattern D8 ensembles (both GGEM and GFS). The original cleveland steamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NWS Tauton AFD... AWT FRI/SAT...NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE THEME OF A POTENTIAL STRONGCOASTAL STORM ESPECIALLY THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GEFS ISFAIRLY STRONG ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW RESOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLES.HOWEVER THIS SET OF GUIDANCE DELAYS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TOJUST NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SUGGESTING MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHERNNEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO DELAYS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL FARTHEROFFSHORE BUT DOES GENERATE MODEST QPF ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MAWITH 0.50 TO 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF...WITH LESS NORTHWARD. HPCINFORMS US THAT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER EAST THANTHE 12Z OP ECMWF. HOWEVER AS WE HAVE SEEN FROM PAST EVENTS A MOREAMPLIFIED AND CLOSER SOLUTION SEEN IN DAYS 6-7 COMES BACK IN DAYS 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The CPC analogs are now putting late Jan 1978 (post Cleveland bomb) as a match to the pattern D8 ensembles (both GGEM and GFS). What that the 20 incher Boston got before the big one? If I remember correctly most of that got washed away before Feb 6 otherwise we would have had an epic snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What that the 20 incher Boston got before the big one? If I remember correctly most of that got washed away before Feb 6 otherwise we would have had an epic snowpack. I think that's the 55* rainstorm while the midwest but their clocks cleaned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What that the 20 incher Boston got before the big one? If I remember correctly most of that got washed away before Feb 6 otherwise we would have had an epic snowpack. sounds about right. thou i think it was under 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 sounds about right. thou i think it was under 20 Kocin book says 21.5'' from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 BOX is still going with 40% pops on Thursday night/Friday/Night. Seems confident to me given the vaious and sundry solutions that are coming/going/returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is right where the models should be at this timeframe. If the past is any indicator on the model flops and vanishing acts. Heck ya- not Jersey this time round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Kocin book says 21.5'' from that. wow ......those back to backers may satisfy ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think that's the 55* rainstorm while the midwest but their clocks cleaned. If that's the analog, shouldn't we cringe at such a mention? Asking because I'm not sure what role the analogs play in forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: 1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If that's the analog, shouldn't we cringe at such a mention? Asking because I'm not sure what role the analogs play in forecasting. Yes I don't understand it.....but I haven't looked at H5 either and maybe I'm picking the wrong event? But the Cleveland bomb was the awful rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 As BOX notes days 4-5 some models lose it..only to bring it back days 2-3..We're fine.Snow coming and alot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 Feet and feet for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 Snowhole right over MHT... sounds about right... lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 wow ......me takn' it from the back may satisfy ray. All set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes I don't understand it.....but I haven't looked at H5 either and maybe I'm picking the wrong event? But the Cleveland bomb was the awful rainer. He said post Cleveland Bomb, so I'm assuming it's the Jan. 19-21 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 Pretty much dead on 1978...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 A four maxima. Kinda of like the Triple Lindy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 He said post Cleveland Bomb, so I'm assuming it's the Jan. 19-21 storm. No, it was the pattern after the Cleveland Bomb...analog date was 1/29/78....so meaning it was a pattern similar to the days leading up to Feb 5, 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No, it was the pattern after the Cleveland Bomb...analog date was 1/29/78....so meaning it was a pattern similar to the days leading up to Feb 5, 1978. Oh, ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No, it was the pattern after the Cleveland Bomb...analog date was 1/29/78....so meaning it was a pattern similar to the days leading up to Feb 5, 1978. Better! Similar. Torch....cold fropa, the Arctic gets ready...let's see what we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 weenie jackpot. when talking about a storm stalling i recall Wx4cast posting usually a day or so before the event regarding needing some feature to be 2.5 Standard deviations or more ......to show a very good potential. does anyone recall this ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good news for GC. ALY chucks a couple. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS THE REGION IS POISED FOR A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT AS A DEFORMATION/TROWAL AXIS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. IN ADDITION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR THIS TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE COASTAL LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND. 500MB ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS SHOW A RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WITH A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS AND INTENSITY /HIGH STANDARD DEVIATIONS/. SO THE TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY /MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/. GIVEN THE TRENDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. 25.9/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The DGEX simply murders us. Oh for that solution..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 weenie jackpot. when talking about a storm stalling i recall Wx4cast posting usually a day or so before the event regarding needing some feature to be 2.5 Standard deviations or more ......to show a very good potential. does anyone recall this ........ I recall.....I think it was -2.0 to slow and the threshold for stall was less (more extreme) than -2.5 SD, but I forget what it was the SD of. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hmmm seems like Days 5-12 we could be headed for a period right out of pete's winter "forecast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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