dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 DGEX (from the 84 hour Bob posted) is going to be divine in the 96 and beyond range. As Scott says...strap in and wait. We should have much better consensus in 48 hours. Expecting a model burying you 5-6 days out to verify is asking alot..but we all do it. He posted the Eta though...not the NAM. The 84hr NAM looks interesting too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 He posted the Eta though...not the NAM. The 84hr NAM looks interesting too though. They both break off a piece of that ULL and than look to drop the remaining piece into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 exactly. that is the big difference between it and the other models. It may be that it is right and leading the way. But at least according to Tip the teleconnections suggest digging. So now I think we need to start to look for closer in signs as to whether factors are setting up to suggest more digging or less digging (or no digging). What data can we start to see that will help us track that? alright so in this vein, if the Euro is the only model not digging the PV much or fast enough, then lets see what the next runs of the other models do: 18Z NAM is digging yes? next up is 18Z GFS I like to have one thing to focus on in the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NAM still looking good. Looks like it would have qpf in here on Thursday night--much earlier than the EC. More in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 alright so in this vein, if the Euro is the only model not digging the PV much or fast enough, then lets see what the next runs of the other models do: 18Z NAM is digging yes? next up is 18Z GFS I like to have one thing to focus on in the upcoming runs. 1 point being missed, the Euro generally has the best 5h verification scores even if it's botched the surface a few times. Disconcerting but I'm not a card carrying member of the Euro fan club so NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So looking like stuff is pushed back a bit and I should be OK to get home 7 PM Friday? BTW, amazing flying across the country today. Snow everywhere. You didn't fly over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NAM does look nice at hr 84...for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1 point being missed, the Euro generally has the best 5h verification scores even if it's botched the surface a few times. Disconcerting but I'm not a card carrying member of the Euro fan club so NBD. I thought you were President...not just a client? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I thought you were President...not just a client? The RUC is his only "client". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NAM does look nice at hr 84...for whatever that's worth. Yeah that looks like it would be major. SREF agrees with it too though obviously a little more dulled down and smoothed...but its def. dropping that bottom half of the lobe pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NAM does look nice at hr 84...for whatever that's worth. I predict the Euro is a huge hit nlt 12Z Wed run. I also predict GFS loses the storm at least 1-2 runs and the usual suspects bale ealry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that looks like it would be major. SREF agrees with it too though obviously a little more dulled down and smoothed...but its def. dropping that bottom half of the lobe pretty far south. What did you think of the ec ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm betting against the 12z EURO......all my antagonists who taunt me chants of "negative" can take that, sit on it and rotate. I call BS on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm betting against the 12z EURO......all my antagonists who taunt me chants of "negativea" can take that, sit on it and rotate. I call BS on the EURO. This is a much more fun Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What did you think of the ec ensembles? Well the spaghetti plots looked like the OP was the slowest. The mean looked like a mess with a storm trying to redevelop back toward the BM, but then the center being way east...but a ton of spread west. It basically looked like there was a ton of uncertainty...at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm betting against the 12z EURO......all my antagonists who taunt me chants of "negativea" can take that, sit on it and rotate. I call BS on the EURO. I agree. Let's face it, it is an outlier and while scoring well on NHEM H5, it is unlike any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is a much more fun Ray. I'm not trying to pitch anyone's tent.....I honestly believe that to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well the spaghetti plots looked like the OP was the slowest. The mean looked like a mess with a storm trying to redevelop back toward the BM, but then the center being way east...but a ton of spread west. It basically looked like there was a ton of uncertainty...at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I need to get things done..........this is wickedly bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well the spaghetti plots looked like the OP was the slowest. The mean looked like a mess with a storm trying to redevelop back toward the BM, but then the center being way east...but a ton of spread west. It basically looked like there was a ton of uncertainty...at least to me. It looked like it would make a run for the BM at hr 108 with a fairly large spread, but then tightened up and jumped ene. That's why I was saying it was sort of a head scratcher. But look at 500mb. It does not want to do much with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It looked like it would make a run for the BM at hr 108 with a fairly large spread, but then tightened up and jumped ene. That's why I was saying it was sort of a head scratcher. But look at 500mb. It does not want to do much with the trough. It looks like some members want to bring it south of sne, but I was surprised it didn't look at least similar to the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It looked like it would make a run for the BM at hr 108 with a fairly large spread, but then tightened up and jumped ene. That's why I was saying it was sort of a head scratcher. But look at 500mb. It does not want to do much with the trough. Amazingly the Euro has had the least continuity over the past 36h of any OP model. The ensemble mean can only tell us so much sometimes...when you look at the spaghetti plots at 5h by 108-120h, you can see how the OP has become the outlier. The spread gives us a level of confidence in that ensemble mean (I know you know this, but just saying for those who are learning). I certainly wouldn't trust any solution right now. The GFS ensemble had a lot of spread too. Some solutions gave us a HECS and others gave us very little snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm not trying to pitch anyone's tent.....I honestly believe that to be the case. I wouldn't be shocked at all. Hoping me staying up for the euro tonight is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1 point being missed, the Euro generally has the best 5h verification scores even if it's botched the surface a few times. Disconcerting but I'm not a card carrying member of the Euro fan club so NBD. Which Euro? Here's Euro h5 0z Euro digs to the mid atlantic 12z barely any digging til way late Depends on which euro you like for best verification cause one of those two is going to fail horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I need to get things done..........this is wickedly bad.... Oh God you and me both. IN the middle of a huge writing project and this is such an easy distraction!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Amazingly the Euro has had the least continuity over the past 36h of any OP model. The ensemble mean can only tell us so much sometimes...when you look at the spaghetti plots at 5h by 108-120h, you can see how the OP has become the outlier. The spread gives us a level of confidence in that ensemble mean (I know you know this, but just saying for those who are learning). I certainly wouldn't trust any solution right now. The GFS ensemble had a lot of spread too. Some solutions gave us a HECS and others gave us very little snow at all. Definitely agree with that. I guess the one thing that is nice to see, is that all models at least give something around D5, and there seems to be some events shaping up over the next 2+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm not trying to pitch anyone's tent.....I honestly believe that to be the case. Too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Haven't seen this posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Anybody else really confused on what could happen here? Is it an inverted trough? Is it a Miller B? Is it a retrograde? I'm confused... Will or Scott can you help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 My 1993-94 fetish is fed with a big meal of the Euro d10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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