CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Figured, so my point was just that this solution is such a big change yet again from run to run, and the Euro is clearly not handling it well even at this time range. I do remember you and Will mentioning them a lot with the last one since they were more on target. I wasn't trying to say, "This is wrong! Me want snow!" just that it's stunning how the anomalous pattern is wreaking havoc again/still even with the king. I'm actually somewhat detached from this. I got a lot more than I bargained for last weekend, so I will live with an advisory event (which is what I expect at this point) and hope for 6-8 at best. Yeah the inconsistency is scary, but expect anomalous things with anomalous patterns. Just strap in and enjoy the ride. Hopefully it brings us to the promised land at some point. To be honest, I do like seeing the euro somewhat vulnerable to the pattern. Good to know it has it's flaws too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It lost some of the spread that the 00z had. What's surprising to me, is the lack of digging at H5. That really threw me for a loop, and makes me suspect it a little. Bad inits...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd take it. Euro gives me 0.5 melted for a 3-6 type of deal. GFS/UK gives me snowmageddon. Obviously I'd prefer the latter but chances are eastern NE does not get skunked. Nor would eastern Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 taking a look at qpf (i know its the least best thing to look at but lets look at it anyways) euro 4 runs ago qpf montreal-NNE corridor (W-E orientation) euro 3 runs ago qpf ottawa to boston corridor (NW-SE orientation) euro 2 runs ago qpf NJ/NY area to SNE (SW-NE orientation) euro last run.....nowhere really the GFS has consistently pegged new england as the main area. one blip run where not much of anything. nothing in the MA ever. this has been for the past 4 or so days including 6z and 18z runs i believe, correct if wrong. hard to go against consistency, esp with the Uk coming on board and yes, even the JMA adds some support. if it doesnt pan out, then in the end, midrange evaluation in terms of sensible wx will show that the GFS will either be consistently wrong, or the euro just wrong altogether. of course im sure the verificaiton scores will show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It lost some of the spread that the 00z had. What's surprising to me, is the lack of digging at H5. That really threw me for a loop, and makes me suspect it a little. exactly. that is the big difference between it and the other models. It may be that it is right and leading the way. But at least according to Tip the teleconnections suggest digging. So now I think we need to start to look for closer in signs as to whether factors are setting up to suggest more digging or less digging (or no digging). What data can we start to see that will help us track that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 12z EURO was just a giant terd in my scorpion bowl. We are just so far out though. We've been down this road so many times. It could disappear entirely at 00z only to reappear at 12z tomorrow...who knows. I know you know this but it's important to remember. All you can do is try and sniff out a couple trends and otherwise just wait until we are down to 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah the inconsistency is scary, but expect anomalous things with anomalous patterns. Just strap in and enjoy the ride. Hopefully it brings us to the promised land at some point. To be honest, I do like seeing the euro somewhat vulnerable to the pattern. Good to know it has it's flaws too. Hah, it sure does. I'm enjoying the ride! Last time it was more fear and doom/gloom but now....I won with the blizzard and it doubled as getting the first one of the season out of the way. So this is gravy...for now. I can't wait to see what ends up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 DGEX (from the 84 hour Bob posted) is going to be divine in the 96 and beyond range. As Scott says...strap in and wait. We should have much better consensus in 48 hours. Expecting a model burying you 5-6 days out to verify is asking alot..but we all do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 DFEX (from the 84 hour Bob posted) is going to be divine in the 96 and beyond range. As Scott says...strap in and wait. We should have much better consensus in 48 hours. Expecting a model burying you 5-6 days out to verify is asking alot..but we all do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NAM still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's alot like the 0Z Euro was at similar time frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If it looked like the Canadian ensembles, I could live with it, but to have it so far east is quite interesting (or boring). It's not really taking the vortlobe north of MN and ripping it se like the op had. I think that's part of the issue...that is, what to do with the PV up by Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We are just so far out though. We've been down this road so many times. It could disappear entirely at 00z only to reappear at 12z tomorrow...who knows. I know you know this but it's important to remember. All you can do is try and sniff out a couple trends and otherwise just wait until we are down to 60 hrs. I know....all good points from Scott and others. It's not being "negative".....but rather objective and all encompassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Perhaps it is correct? Nah it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Meanwhile, looks like some cstl storms or huggers on the euro ensembles too. Could be pretty active with that trough to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Someone said there's a 0% chance of a miss...so im feeling confident. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who? You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 You! Who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I know....all good points from Scott and others. It's not being "negative".....but rather objective and all encompassing. It's so the SnowNH's of the world don't go rafters on us. I do like what I see overall...minus the ec ensembles..lol, but at D5..I don't think you can completely blow them off. They do seem a little suspect though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's so the SnowNH's of the world don't go rafters on us. I do like what I see overall...minus the ec ensembles..lol, but at D5..I don't think you can completely blow them off. They do seem a little suspect though. Weren;t they also showing a miss with the Blizzard at even closer in time than 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who? You! Who lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 18z NAM looks like it would deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Weren;t they also showing a miss with the Blizzard at even closer in time than 5 days? No they were dam good at D5. It had the low maybe 50-60 miles se of Chatham. Looking at it now. Edit, but maybe 18hrs too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Meanwhile, looks like some cstl storms or huggers on the euro ensembles too. Could be pretty active with that trough to our west. Great.....the one we need close they have over Bermuda and then the Miller A may screw us the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So looking like stuff is pushed back a bit and I should be OK to get home 7 PM Friday? BTW, amazing flying across the country today. Snow everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No they were dam good at D5. It had the low maybe 50-60 miles se of Chatham. Looking at it now. Edit, but maybe 18hrs too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Great.....the one we need close they have over Bermuda and then the Miller A may screw us the other direction. Eh, with the cold around, you might expect miller b's or overrunning. I did say earlier that I wouldn't be shocked if one of these has ptype issues for some, but honestly..I want to see it active. That's first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 No they were dam good at D5. It had the low maybe 50-60 miles se of Chatham. Looking at it now. Edit, but maybe 18hrs too slow. I remember the Euro op and ensembles went way east and we are worried about a miss under day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I remember the Euro op and ensembles went way east and we are worried about a miss under day 5 Yeah it scraped us the next day, 12z/22. Goes to show you how difficult it is for models to handle all these moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.