dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 WTF is with the king, the misery continues...here I thought the ensembles would get it right at least. Ouch. Or maybe the ensembles are right? Let's let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Or maybe the ensembles are right? Let's let it play out. Yeah it's a bit too early to claim winner...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Perhaps it is correct? Perhaps, but considering everything now and with previous storms I think it seems more likely in this time range it's putting the puzzle together incorrectly. Amazing jumps and inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 WTF is with the king, the misery continues...here I thought the ensembles would get it right at least. Ouch. I posted earlier to the effect that I think the unprecedented bouts of blocking are exploiting it's slow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Or maybe the ensembles are right? Let's let it play out. Well kinda what I just said...with the jumps back and forth and with how it's been performing, gah. It'll be very right or wrong and I think it's the latter. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Perhaps, but considering everything now and with previous storms I think it seems more likely in this time range it's putting the puzzle together incorrectly. Amazing jumps and inconsistency. The euro ensembles handled the last storm fairly well at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It doesn't dig the trough at all. It brings it to NY state and then lifts ne. It's almost like the next storm on its heels acts as a kicker. I don't know what to make of it, other than some more uncertainty. The funny thing is a year ago we'd have felt pretty certain this wasn't good for a big snow here. Two years ago we'd already be looking at the next event. Skip to 2010/2011 and we may be in a position to look back at the NOGAPs locking prior to the Euro. The Norlun is the GFS compromise for this system. It's torn between the two lobes of energy and doesn't know which one will dominate to it splits the difference. Only one will likely be the big dog but time will tell whether it's the one and done Euro or the late big dog per GFS/UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The euro ensembles handled the last storm fairly well at this time range. I'm still waiting for the snowmagedon that they modeled for me a couple of weeks ago at a pretty short lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Perhaps it is correct? I'd take it. Euro gives me 0.5 melted for a 3-6 type of deal. GFS/UK gives me snowmageddon. Obviously I'd prefer the latter but chances are eastern NE does not get skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The euro ensembles handled the last storm fairly well at this time range. Still solidly 100 miles too far east in the mean at d5. And does it show any inverted trof or bulding west indicating membership may have some ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The euro ensembles handled the last storm fairly well at this time range. They did but my understanding from you guys is they were outside the BM most of the time at this range. They were off by 100-150 which even if correct makes this still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The euro ensembles handled the last storm fairly well at this time range. That's what I thought, and I saw the op last night but not the ensembles - it was a big difference from 00z to 12z again yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well imo, the euro ensembles seem kind of weird, but why would I favor the 3' of snow the gfs gives me? I think it just goes to show you how complicated everything is, and the Feb '78 analogs aren't helping the weenies. Still lots of time with this, but I remain fairly optimistic, but also on guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd take it. Euro gives me 0.5 melted for a 3-6 type of deal. GFS/UK gives me snowmageddon. Obviously I'd prefer the latter but chances are eastern NE does not get skunked. I agree Jerry, I think anyone from taunton north to 495 coastal nh and downeast maine is looking great for snow. Anywhere west of there will need the euro to jump on the first vortmax and dig further south. Eastern new england looks to be in great shape!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Still solidly 100 miles too far east in the mean at d5. And does it show any inverted trof or bulding west indicating membership may have some ideas? Yeah it has a trough extending west so we would probably get some light snow, but I didn't expect them to be this far east. I'm scratching my head on this...seems a little weird, but I just don't know when we're 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well imo, the euro ensembles seem kind of weird, but why would I favor the 3' of snow the gfs gives me? I think it just goes to show you how complicated everything is, and the Feb '78 analogs aren't helping the weenies. Still lots of time with this, but I remain fairly optimistic, but also on guard. Because the EURO just went from taking the PV over HAT to keeping it in Canada in one run, while the GFS maintained a shred of of continuity relative to the 06z run and the UK now shakes hands with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's what I thought, and I saw the op last night but not the ensembles - it was a big difference from 00z to 12z again yes? Yeah 00z ensembles were much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Because the EURO just went from taking the PV over HAT to keeping in Canada in one run, while the GFS maintained a shred of of continuity relative to the 06z run and the UK now shakes hands with it. Well the gfs was leaps from 00z too. We don't have a 06z euro to compare. I don't trust the UK 5 days out. It shook hands with everyone last storm. All I'm saying is that we are 5 days out, and all types of solutions are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I dunno....Euro from the inverted trof feature on the mean must have some members with big hits. GFS/GGEM do. There is a nice signal for significant snow. Details to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Because the EURO just went from taking the PV over HAT to keeping it in Canada in one run, while the GFS maintained a shred of of continuity relative to the 06z run and the UK now shakes hands with it. True, but your talking about the deterministic model solutions which can be wildly off in this timeframe. The Ensembles. are the way to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well the gfs was leaps from 00z too. We don't have a 06z euro to compare. I don't trust the UK 5 days out. It shook hands with everyone last storm. All I'm saying is that we are 5 days out, and all types of solutions are on the table. I was just justifying my argument....it's not a slam dunk. What is disconcerting is that the GFS and UK both have retrograde\inverted scenarios....those just about never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well the gfs was leaps from 00z too. We don't have a 06z euro to compare. I don't trust the UK 5 days out. It shook hands with everyone last storm. All I'm saying is that we are 5 days out, and all types of solutions are on the table. Someone said there's a 0% chance of a miss...so im feeling confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I dunno....Euro from the inverted trof feature on the mean must have some members with big hits. GFS/GGEM do. There is a nice signal for significant snow. Details to be worked out. It lost some of the spread that the 00z had. What's surprising to me, is the lack of digging at H5. That really threw me for a loop, and makes me suspect it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 True, but your talking about the deterministic model solutions which can be wildly off in this timeframe. The Ensembles. are the way to go still. Yep....tough call. The best call right now is probably just enough snow to soil my car and make me shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah 00z ensembles were much better. Figured, so my point was just that this solution is such a big change yet again from run to run, and the Euro is clearly not handling it well even at this time range. I do remember you and Will mentioning them a lot with the last one since they were more on target. I wasn't trying to say, "This is wrong! Me want snow!" just that it's stunning how the anomalous pattern is wreaking havoc again/still even with the king. I'm actually somewhat detached from this. I got a lot more than I bargained for last weekend, so I will live with an advisory event (which is what I expect at this point) and hope for 6-8 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yep....tough call. The best call right now is probably just enough snow to soil my car and make me shovel. LOL, I not poo-pooing it at all btw. I'm actually hopeful for something, but we have a ways to go...that's all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Someone said there's a 0% chance of a miss...so im feeling confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 man, what amazing looking GONAPS run.... heh, 24-36 hrs of beach home eliminating followed by the makings of a Miller A at the tale end of the run. By Scituate - been nice knowin' ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL, I not poo-pooing it at all btw. I'm actually hopeful for something, but we have a ways to go...that's all I meant. I know....best DISCOs include all perspectives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 12z EURO was just a giant terd in my scorpion bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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