ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks Blizz,friar. Liking this. MPM itS a good thing you didn't express any optimism or the shock would cause me to fall to my death. We'll all see a good dose of snow,even Logan out west. Nice and cold here with snsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Some serious cold at the end of that euro run coming into the lower 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who was it that said the 12z GONAPS model looked ho-hum? I disagree entirely. In working with these models, you have to understand their native biases and accommodate when possible. Atoning for the GONAPS huge longitudinal, weak-amplitude bias and the run is a massive massive suggestion before even getting there. The 500mb center is some 5 contours closed off on NJ Coast, which is: a) substantially farther SW than prior runs an amazing achievement for model that so rarely sees amplitude beyond 48 hours in some cases. The only reason I am putting any stock in the go-take-a-nappy-wappy model is because Harv and I used use it for the following, and its a method that scores more than doesn't: When the NOGAPS leads the way on amplitude, more than 50% of the time you go your self a whopper. Wow, thanks for that Tip. What did it ever show for the Blizzard of 2005 if you can recall? Learning something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Some serious cold at the end of that euro run coming into the lower 48 i read a couple long range diso's picking up on this....."voka cold". Seems talk of 1080 HP's and Highs in the - 20-30 range for MT/WY moderating (obviously) and bleeding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 man, what amazing looking GONAPS run.... heh, 24-36 hrs of beach home eliminating followed by the makings of a Miller A at the tale end of the run. By Scituate - been nice knowin' ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it would seem officially according to the NWS observations of Harwich, MA snowfall amounts for the last several storms, I need about 16-17" of snow to reach my seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks Blizz,friar. Liking this. MPM itS a good thing you didn't express any optimism or the shock would cause me to fall to my death. We'll all see a good dose of snow,even Logan out west. Nice and cold here with snsh. Lol. well the fortunes of MPM will likely turn soon enough it is funny that at the same time we had a huge model bust at the short-medium terms (KU last weekend) the models were sniffing out that blocking would redevelop and the above normal departures (early jan-early -mid feb) that some had forecast (some regional mets and astute posters) was turning to crap. Just an awesome turn of events and i am very pumped that january is shaping up to have below normal departures for the month in SNE as well as a nice shot at true arctic air around or just after mid -month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it would seem officially according to the NWS observations of Harwich, MA snowfall amounts for the last several storms, I need about 16-17" of snow to reach my seasonal average. I'm thinkin you're above average....before you leave for Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Some serious cold at the end of that euro run coming into the lower 48 cross polar flow ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 ...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STILL SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING DOMINATING NOAM WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS BLOCK AS IT SLOWLY RETROGRADES FROM SRN GREENLAND BACK INTO NERN CANADA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TO THE S OF THE BLOCK...BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE DUE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...AND A SECONDARY NEGATIVE DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN STATES BY DAY 7. THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST A POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM SWWD ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY 4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. 12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE STILL QUITE INTENSE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYS. THE MANUAL FINAL SURFACE PROGS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE DEPTH THEY SHOWED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE WERE INFLUENCED IN THIS REGARD BY THE ECMWF PLAYING UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN PA/SRN NY STATE NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ON 12Z MODELS: THE LATEST GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED TO THE N OF LATITUDE 40 DEGREES WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THEN TURNING EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES LAKES TOWARDS MA/RI/CAPE COD. SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE FEB 6 1978 TRACK DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED S OF ITS 00Z RUN SAT-SUN WITH ITS MAIN UPPER ENERGY CROSSING SRN NY/SRN NEW ENG...KEEPING THE ENERGY ABOVE LATITUDE 40. THE NEW CANADIAN IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NEW UKMET JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS SAT-SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MAIN ENERGY ALONG LATITUDE 40 N OF ITS PRIOR 00Z RUN. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR SRN NEW ENG THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT LESS RISK OF IT EXTENDING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. TWO POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS ARE AN UPPER LOW BEING KICKED EWD ACROSS THE US/MEXICAN BORDER DAYS 4-5...AND UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NE PACIFIC SE INTO THE WRN STATES. THRU EARLY DAY 6 THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE FIRST SYS MOVING ACROSS THE US MEXICAN BORDER...WITH FILLS RAPIDLY BEYOND DAY 6. THE UPSTREAM SYS BEGINS TO HAVE SERIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS EARLY AS DAY 5...WITH THE DIFFERENCES INCREASING INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS COMPLEX SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE DEEPENING LARGER SCALE WRN TROF. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT HERE...PREFER THE DEEPER MODEL SOLUTIONS INC THIS NEW WRN TROF WHICH ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH A NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. REMNANTS OF THE FIRST SYS KICKED ACROSS THE SW BORDER MAY INDUCE SOME GULF INFLOW INTO THE SERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND...WITH OVERRUNNING RA AND POSSIBLE SN ON THE NW EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IN A NUMBER OF OPERATIONAL MODEL SPECIFICS IS SUFFICIENTLY LACKING TO FAVOR A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7 THU-MON FCST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL BLEND WERE MADE ON ONE OR MORE DAYS TO INCREASE DEFINITION SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC. IN ADDITION SOME DEFINITION WAS ADDED TO THE EXPECTED SRN STREAM WAVE IN LIGHT OF IMPROVED MODEL CLUSTERING. TIMING WAS ADJUSTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN LIGHT OF PRIOR CONTINUITY THAT WAS FASTER. RAUSCH/FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JMA on board..Did well with the blizzard last weekend The isobars really don't seem to be that tight on that JMA map...wind is minimal it seems...not like last weeks blizzard..but still early... just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The isobars really don't seem to be that tight on that JMA map...wind is minimal it seems...not like last weeks blizzard..but still early... just my opinion I would gladly take a less intense system with more qpf. Looking to be a good start to January on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 man, what amazing looking GONAPS run.... heh, 24-36 hrs of beach home eliminating followed by the makings of a Miller A at the tale end of the run. By Scituate - been nice knowin' ya Those poor folks in Scituate will think the wrath of god is unleashing its fury against them again with this one....god help em...though I live in Hull ,bout 400 feet from the beach..so hopefully we won't get slammed with a storm surge here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Check out a couple of the GGEM ensemble members......WOOWZERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re the HPC discussion just out, AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 ...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST A POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM SWWD ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY 4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. 12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE STILL QUITE INTENSE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYS. THE MANUAL FINAL SURFACE PROGS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE DEPTH THEY SHOWED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE WERE INFLUENCED IN THIS REGARD BY THE ECMWF PLAYING UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN PA/SRN NY STATE NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ON 12Z MODELS: THE LATEST GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED TO THE N OF LATITUDE 40 DEGREES WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THEN TURNING EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES LAKES TOWARDS MA/RI/CAPE COD. SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE FEB 6 1978 TRACK DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED S OF ITS 00Z RUN SAT-SUN WITH ITS MAIN UPPER ENERGY CROSSING SRN NY/SRN NEW ENG...KEEPING THE ENERGY ABOVE LATITUDE 40. THE NEW CANADIAN IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NEW UKMET JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS SAT-SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MAIN ENERGY ALONG LATITUDE 40 N OF ITS PRIOR 00Z RUN. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR SRN NEW ENG THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT LESS RISK OF IT EXTENDING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. RAUSCH/FLOOD Aren't the two bolded lines of this discussion contradictory??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 ...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST A POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM SWWD ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY 4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. 12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE STILL QUITE INTENSE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYS. THE MANUAL FINAL SURFACE PROGS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE DEPTH THEY SHOWED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE WERE INFLUENCED IN THIS REGARD BY THE ECMWF PLAYING UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN PA/SRN NY STATE NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ON 12Z MODELS: THE LATEST GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED TO THE N OF LATITUDE 40 DEGREES WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THEN TURNING EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES LAKES TOWARDS MA/RI/CAPE COD. SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE FEB 6 1978 TRACK DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED S OF ITS 00Z RUN SAT-SUN WITH ITS MAIN UPPER ENERGY CROSSING SRN NY/SRN NEW ENG...KEEPING THE ENERGY ABOVE LATITUDE 40. THE NEW CANADIAN IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NEW UKMET JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS SAT-SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MAIN ENERGY ALONG LATITUDE 40 N OF ITS PRIOR 00Z RUN. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR SRN NEW ENG THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT LESS RISK OF IT EXTENDING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. RAUSCH/FLOOD Aren't the two bolded lines of this discussion contradictory??? they were saying that the main alteration WAS (at 0z) a correction sw....however "12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Check out a couple of the GGEM ensemble members......WOOWZERS! 951! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 they were saying that the main alteration WAS (at 0z) a correction sw....however "12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT" Okay--figured I was reading it long. Seems from their graphics that it would have snow beginning before dawn--at least in western locations--on Friday. That would fly in the face of the EC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 951! Yeah--move it 100 miles SW:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 951! If that were a 150 miles further west, you guys might want to bring in the lawn furniture..........(along with your cars, boats, and detached garages)!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro ensembles are pretty far east, like 300 miles east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If that were a 150 miles further west, you guys might want to bring in the lawn furniture..........(along with your cars, boats, and detached garages)!!! Meh, that's a three-wood in those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro ensembles are pretty far east, like 300 miles east of the BM. Euro keying on wrong energy probably so not a huge surprise. Be great to see even the NOGAPS beat the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro ensembles are pretty far east, like 300 miles east of the BM. WTF is with the king, the misery continues...here I thought the ensembles would get it right at least. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Did they really just mention a track "slightly to the left of Feb 1978"....wow; that reads like I wrote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The isobars really don't seem to be that tight on that JMA map...wind is minimal it seems...not like last weeks blizzard..but still early... just my opinion Keep the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 WTF is with the king, the misery continues...here I thought the ensembles would get it right at least. Ouch. Perhaps it is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro keying on wrong energy probably so not a huge surprise. Be great to see even the NOGAPS beat the EC. It doesn't dig the trough at all. It brings it to NY state and then lifts ne. It's almost like the next storm on its heels acts as a kicker. I don't know what to make of it, other than some more uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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