Logan11 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well these phases are all quite late in the game so you people in NE certainly have good hope for a major storm, but slim chances out here. Inverted trof, some retrograding, etc. might get us several inches, etc. but I'm not thinking a lot here now. I actually like next week more here if that southern stream stuff finally kicks out of the SW and phases as the arctic air is coming down. That has cutter risks, but could be a big deal event running up the coast. So even the worst of solutions (except the GGEM) give a healthy advisory level event for SNE. I like our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Didnt we see the models doing the same type of "flip flops' with the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This just proves we are still far out before this gets resolved.. If we see swings like this within three days...(similar to the last storm), then that's pretty bad. With this insane blocking, It's not shocking to see the models swing for the fences and then give us 3" of fluff 12 hrs later. I think the one common theme is that models give us at least a advisory type deal...which imo is pretty darn good being 5 days out. Can't say I don't like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 C'mon. You needed proof? Who was saying it was resolved? It was a general statement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If we see swings like this within three days...(similar tot he last storm), then that's pretty bad. With this insane blocking, It's not shocking to see the models swing for the fences and then give us 3" of fluff 12 hrs later. I think the one common theme is that models give us at least a advisory type deal...which imo is pretty darn good being 5 days out. Can't say I don't like what I see. I agree, The biggest factor is that its going to come from the northern stream and looks like its just strength and timing issues that need to be resolved, I still feel good about this as well as everyone else of at least seeing some snow wehter it be lt/mod/hvy to be determined...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Something else brewing off the se at d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL....Euro is going to give a DC-ME bomb d9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You know what, I wish I had a nickle for every time I read a "this is just about dead" post, those which hammered the forum for 2 days prior to the last blizzard the struct from VA-ME, and all because the Euro pulled this crap... Now, we'll sit back and watch the GFS come in dead at 18z and everyone will be doing the same thing in the eternal yo-yooing of it all. Not me. I'm sitting put on this threat because at the end of the day, just like that which presaged the last, the teleconnectors really support a deep low between NJ and the BM; usually one way or the other the teleconnections tend to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seems to me besides the ukmet, 12z guidance is honing in on a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Bummer about Doc ... I was enjoying the brief consensus among the models that gave it to us good. Anyway, no real concerns ... lots of time before kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12/26 redux??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seems to me besides the ukmet, 12z guidance is honing in on a later phase. I'd be concerned if i was SW of NYC..esp philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nice d9 bomb again..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL....Euro is going to give a DC-ME bomb d9-10. Hvy hvy...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You know what, I wish I had a nickle for every time I read a "this is just about dead" post, those which hammered the forum for 2 days prior to the last blizzard the struct from VA-ME, and all because the Euro pulled this crap... Now, we'll sit back and watch the GFS come in dead at 18z and everyone will be doing the same thing in the eternal yo-yooing of it all. Not me. I'm sitting put on this threat because at the end of the day, just like that which presaged the last, the teleconnectors really support a deep low between NJ and the BM; usually one way or the other the teleconnections tend to win. +1 I agree wholeheartedly. I had to laugh during the run up to the last storm when everyone on the General Forum thread jumped ship when the Euro said the storm wasn't going to happen 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd be concerned if i was SW of NYC..esp philly Rule #1 of a Miller B. Somebody always gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nice d9 bomb again..lol. One thing is for certain, Does not look to warm up anytime soon........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ha ha. you know it's almost as though the storm was going to be too big and powerful for the model so it just gave up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It was a general statement.. No, I understand. It's just curious to me how some posters (not you) get emotionally involved so early in the process. Personally, that would drive me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You know what, I wish I had a nickle for every time I read a "this is just about dead" post, those which hammered the forum for 2 days prior to the last blizzard the struct from VA-ME, and all because the Euro pulled this crap... Now, we'll sit back and watch the GFS come in dead at 18z and everyone will be doing the same thing in the eternal yo-yooing of it all. Not me. I'm sitting put on this threat because at the end of the day, just like that which presaged the last, the teleconnectors really support a deep low between NJ and the BM; usually one way or the other the teleconnections tend to win. Lacking the ability to decipher the teleconnections sufficiently enough to concur it is tempting to put too much weight on each model run. The futility of that exercise, however has been proven to me enough to defer to those with more knowledge and experience and to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well these phases are all quite late in the game so you people in NE certainly have good hope for a major storm, but slim chances out here. Inverted trof, some retrograding, etc. might get us several inches, etc. but I'm not thinking a lot here now. I actually like next week more here if that southern stream stuff finally kicks out of the SW and phases as the arctic air is coming down. That has cutter risks, but could be a big deal event running up the coast. West of Albany is a tough spot. I think even for western NE, we'll need to have a fast development. Folks east of Worcester have reason to be most optimistic as they have more room to play with in regard to development.. That said, the GFS/UK are really nice things to see. What the deal with snow beginning on THursday night? (Kev--you said that I think)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 JMA on board..Did well with the blizzard last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 When the NOGAPS gives more than the Euro which is less than UK/GFS, it's a flag. This will produce something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ha ha. you know it's almost as though the storm was going to be too big and powerful for the model so it just gave up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who was it that said the 12z GONAPS model looked ho-hum? I disagree entirely. In working with these models, you have to understand their native biases and accommodate when possible. Atoning for the GONAPS huge longitudinal, weak-amplitude bias and the run is a massive massive suggestion before even getting there. The 500mb center is some 5 contours closed off on NJ Coast, which is: a) substantially farther SW than prior runs an amazing achievement for model that so rarely sees amplitude beyond 48 hours in some cases. The only reason I am putting any stock in the go-take-a-nappy-wappy model is because Harv and I used use it for the following, and its a method that scores more than doesn't: When the NOGAPS leads the way on amplitude, more than 50% of the time you go your self a whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No, I understand. It's just curious to me how some posters (not you) get emotionally involved so early in the process. Personally, that would drive me crazy. Yeah, Point taken, The fact that its northern stream interaction certainly leaves everything still on the table so know one should get to emotionally wrapped up in this yet, The overall pattern looks like it will produce even if this one somehow does not work out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who was it that said the 12z GONAPS model looked ho-hum? I disagree entirely. In working with these models, you have to understand their native biases and accommodate when possible. Atoning for the GONAPS huge longitudinal, weak-amplitude bias and the run is a massive massive suggestion before even getting there. The 500mb center is some 5 contours closed off on NJ Coast, which is: a) substantially farther SW than prior runs an amazing achievement for model that so rarely sees amplitude beyond 48 hours in some cases. The only reason I am putting any stock in the go-take-nappy-wappy model is because Harv and I used use it for the following, and its a method that scores more than doesn't: When the NOGAPS leads the way on amplitude, more than 50% of the time you go your self a whopper. Agreed....fluke EURO run...just as the last was. This is a SNE\NYC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Damn! Excuse my lack of historical perspective, but that looks like a highly anomalous trough extending from off the map (north pole) all the way to the BOC (in addition to the monster nor'easter off of NJ).. Any analogs for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Who was it that said the 12z GONAPS model looked ho-hum? I disagree entirely. In working with these models, you have to understand their native biases and accommodate when possible. Atoning for the GONAPS huge longitudinal, weak-amplitude bias and the run is a massive massive suggestion before even getting there. The 500mb center is some 5 contours closed off on NJ Coast, which is: a) substantially farther SW than prior runs an amazing achievement for model that so rarely sees amplitude beyond 48 hours in some cases. The only reason I am putting any stock in the go-take-a-nappy-wappy model is because Harv and I used use it for the following, and its a method that scores more than doesn't: When the NOGAPS leads the way on amplitude, more than 50% of the time you go your self a whopper. The Nogaps rule is actually known to the met. world as the Schwartz Synoptic Seven.. pleas refer to it by it's proper name..named after the concept and princilpes founder. Mr Schwartz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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