Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think its probably wrong with how slow it is here...but all this shows is how ripe the long wave pattern is for something near us...you can get all sorts of problems early on and they still manifest into some type of storm. Yeah with all modelling...even the bad ones showing some kind of storm near us..the devil is in the details. The Euro always seems to have a run or 2 where it';s too slow. I'd think this is probably Friday into Saturday storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...there is no snow at all until Thursday nite I was just noticing that actually the Euro throws us a 1-2" coating I think - hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Way way slow, It hung back that energy a long time......... Yeah I agree with Will, about the slowness of the solution, but it will still produce. When I saw the vorticity hanging back, I thought it might have a chance if it can round the base of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's gonna retrograde, but probably too late to be a GFS...... Not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's actually doing exactly what Ray and I were telling folks it probably would and nothing else, it's bringing this farther N up the Coast. Not a killer by any means... I do agree with Will though that the timing is suspicious. Have to hear NCEP's take on in... The Euro ensemble cluster will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It escapes east and we get a classic garbage inverted trough. Toss it...this is a delayed GFS soloution....too slow. Speed that up and we have the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like a 3-5" advisory event this run....after all that. The run to run flip flopping has been incredible. We got a long ways to go. I think the best parameter that can be taken out of the 12z suite is that the models are definitely wanting to push part of this vortex underneath us which usually results in good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's gonna retrograde, but probably too late to be a GFS...... Not worried. It takes the low pretty far east of the benchmark before it starts retrograding back west........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 00z run will have it off ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like a 3-5" advisory event this run....after all that. The run to run flip flopping has been incredible. We got a long ways to go. I think the best parameter that can be taken out of the 12z suite is that the models are definitely wanting to push part of this vortex underneath us which usually results in good things. So even the worst of solutions (except the GGEM) give a healthy advisory level event for SNE. I like our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well that was ugly. It's pretty much just advisory snows from a weak inverted trough for you guys in SNE and LI. Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the Euro also was too slow in bringing in the HECS blizzard last weekend. Recall when it had it not starting until late monday into tuesday? Sounds like it's just too slow I think this time though, rather than just being slower, it's focusing in on a different s/w. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hopefully noone kicked the chairs out from underfoot..until the run finished..still a nice snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think what we are seeing is the king being exposed this season by unprecedented blocking (exploiting it's slow bias); this season is to the EURO what a HOF LOGI is to a prolific lefty slugger. The EURO is not king, this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It escapes east and we get a classic garbage inverted trough. Toss it...this is a delayed GFS soloution....too slow. Speed that up and we have the GFS. It may just be overcompensating a N adjustment and because of that you end up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey Blizz. I'm sitting on a steel girder 40' up waiting for the next one to be swung into me. No time to read, what's the latyest? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i know its a tough pattern but i cant believe how inconsistent the euro has become....even huge changes within the first couple days of the run. there is literally no model to hang your hat on anymore. i wonder if its upgrades or the AO causing havoc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well lets see what the ensembles say. It's not far from the 00z ensembles, but even they were a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It may just be overcompensating a N adjustment and because of that you end up with this. Absolutely....this run nods to the GFS\UK camp, regardless of it's post card impact on sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Cosgroves buying it lol. He thinks the other solutions are too extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Models that are 5 days out will have swings. We saw the gfs do it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well that was ugly. It's pretty much just advisory snows from a weak inverted trough for you guys in SNE and LI. Weak sauce. Yup and we get the middle finger............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Cosgroves buying it lol. He thinks the other solutions are too extreme Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey Blizz. I'm sitting on a steel girder 40' up waiting for the next one to be swung into me. No time to read, what's the latyest? TIA You will only be 38 feet up if some of the models hold form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Models that are 5 days out will have swings. We saw the gfs do it too. This is par for the course. Talk to me when we see this 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey Blizz. I'm sitting on a steel girder 40' up waiting for the next one to be swung into me. No time to read, what's the latyest? TIA GFS/Ukie..huge hits for all except Ryan Euro advisory event but likely wrong due to timing issues GGEM good track bad result due to too many pieces strung out like a whore on coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Zero continuity. You'd be a fool to "buy" anything right now. Ensemble means and intellectual reasoning are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Models that are 5 days out will have swings. We saw the gfs do it too. We also saw this model do this with the last big bomb, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is par for the course. Talk to me when we see this 3 days out. This just proves we are still far out before this gets resolved.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This just proves we are still far out before this gets resolved.. C'mon. You needed proof? Who was saying it was resolved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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