dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Very likely not there yet, but I do think this situation will be resolved at a more extended lead, than the last was........We are just deealing with a n stream bowling ball this go around, as opposed to the complex phasing of both streams last time. I think by Wednesday we will have a good idea. I think your right and thats a good point, No southern stream involvement to screw it up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No I mean I knew there'd be NW winds..but that has nothing to do whether the valley sees snow or not. Tell that to Jersey/NYC that had 25-30 inches with NW winds. I just didn't understand his point. See 1/3 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I was almost onboard for a HECS too. We're lucky to have sbos_wx share his infinite wisdom with us It's Jay and yes, that was directed at the fact he wouldn't complain for a long time. I'm only screwing with him, as he knows. (i hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've seen a few times where nw winds aren't the death sentence, at least for eastern areas. I had 10" in the storm last January with nw winds. Yeah...they were wnw down here during the peak of the snow and it was a widespread 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I think the ensembles are about as good as you can expect at this time. I don't want them west. Yeah, looks like a bit of a bulge W on the isobars though, which has to be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've seen a few times where nw winds aren't the death sentence, at least for eastern areas. I had 10" in the storm last January with nw winds. I'd rather be here with west winds, than in the CT valley, though.....maybe not gonna result in P sunny skies, but it would ensure the usual valley screw zone. I mean, they have the Bershires JUST to their west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We've seen a few times where nw winds aren't the death sentence, at least for eastern areas. I had 10" in the storm last January with nw winds. Glad they are out of the NE up this way, It certainly would be a killer here, NW winds.....ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 See 1/3 last year. NW winds had nothing to do with that... Most of our big storms have NW winds and snow falling in various areas of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Model blows.......all I wanted to see from that it is the vortex further s......good run. The GGEM seems to have two modes at this range, bomb or OTS. It just seems to be unable to resolve/model a regular snowstorm. I don't think I ever recall looking at the GGEM and seeing it show a solid 6-12 or 7-14 type snowstorm at d4-6, it's always a storm of the century or barely getting precip to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 See 1/3 last year. Had nothing to do with the vectors. You were just too far west. NW winds typically in Boston dry and downslope...but 1/3 gave 10 inches. NYC/NJ last week...ultimately NW downsloper....to 2-3 feet. Can't use sfc winds as the indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NW winds had nothing to do with that... Most of our big storms have NW winds and snow falling in various areas of SNE Yea, while it was winding down on the backside. lol All I am saying is the the CT valley is even more unlikely than usual to jackpot on nw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd rather be here with west winds, than in the CT valley, though.....maybe not gonna result in P sunny skies, but it would ensure the usual valley screw zone. I mean, they have the Bershires JUST to their west.... Yeah that's why I threw in "eastern areas". It all depends on the forcing. They saw nw winds during 1888 too, but forcing was tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NW winds had nothing to do with that... Most of our big storms have NW winds and snow falling in various areas of SNE Are you sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that's why I threw in "eastern areas". It all depends on the forcing. They saw nw winds during 1888 too, but forcing was tremendous. Wow, You have a better memory then Will............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that's why I threw in "eastern areas". It all depends on the forcing. They saw nw winds during 1888 too, but forcing was tremendous. Yea, being under a deformation band with highly anomalous forcing negates all else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No I mean I knew there'd be NW winds..but that has nothing to do whether the valley sees snow or not. Tell that to Jersey/NYC that had 25-30 inches with NW winds. I just didn't understand his point. NW and N winds are a killer up here...downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What is the word from the crazy uncle???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, being under a deformation band with highly anomalous forcing negates all else. Feb 5 2001 didn't give a crap about their elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, while it was winding down on the backside. lol All I am saying is the the CT valley is even more unlikely than usual to jackpot on nw winds. I'd rather be almost anyplace in the world than the CT River Valley lol.. it's bad enough i have to drive here to work everyday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Feb 5 2001 didn't give a crap about their elevation. I guess the morel of the story is that if you are in a major valley, than you need forcing to avoid a screw zone....regardless of wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What is the word from the crazy uncle???? Its not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow, Ray was a busy man today. Looks like he initialized the ensembles too. No GFS initialization errors Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Its not out yet. UKie will probably show some sort of middle range look with a medium sized hit. Thats my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Are you sure about that? There's alot of high elevations there that look like they also got screwed. I think that was just a novelty. Plus..are those snow depths or snow from that one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No GFS initialization errors Ray! Trust me, if I initialzed a run that evolved like that, than I made no errors...that was precisely how I intended the soloution to be resolved and everything that I wanted initialized was initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 UKie will probably show some sort of middle range look with a medium sized hit. Thats my guess. I think it will look somewhat like the GFS.....then the EURO will move N, somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Nogaps is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z Nogaps is meh. like 3 quarters qpf...I'd take that and run. Def "meh" compared to Euro and GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yea, while it was winding down on the backside. lol All I am saying is the the CT valley is even more unlikely than usual to jackpot on nw winds. The big issue is the shadowing the valley takes in all qpf events from coastal origins. That's why BDL, an inland location not subject to near the coastal contamination that BOS has, typically has relatively equivalent snow totals despite BDL being a colder location on average in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 like 3 quarters qpf...I'd take that and run. Def "meh" compared to Euro and GFS though. I wouldn't expect the NOGAPS to have like 2" of qpf at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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