Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 14 for tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Even though this has a slight retrograde I don't think people should confuse it with the occluded retrograde garbage we've had off and on around here over the last couple of winters. This bombs out closer to the coast as H5 captures it and it develops a raging CCB. This isn't the light garbage that retrogrades in after being in Nova Scotia. Yeah it goes nuts after finally being captured...ala Feb '69 or a lesser known one (but still a a near miss in KU)...Feb 14, 1962. Its not already occluded or past its peak...its in the process of bombing when it gets yanked back to the W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wasn't the shredding of the precip. bands due to the marginal mid-level temps? Possibly due to the high pressure to our north being displaced slightly west of where we like it. I'm going to be very careful with my optimism for the area between ORH and the E. slope of the Berks until I see a strong high sitting NW of us. Would like to see the models indicating avoidance of another 80 mile wide screw zone. I don't think the HP is the issue as there is HP draining ageostrophic flow. However, midlevel centers SE and then east of us, particularly the H7 depiction which should greatly enhance snow growth is damned near perfect. If it played out like that, many of us would have an enormous dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Pretty much par for the course when it's trying to resolve a pattern that wants the low further west IMO. The norlun seems to be a flag most of the time to a pending west trend/normal track. If it had no support from the EC it's often support for a later OTS shift, but this one seems to be well set. Days away but it's kind of clear a big one is coming with the details of who/where from DC to Maine to be sorted out. Agree completely. This is exactly what I thought we'd have on today's or tonight's run...a sense of the general direction this is going, details to be worked out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah it goes nuts after finally being captured...ala Feb '69 or a lesser known one (but still a a near miss in KU)...Feb 14, 1962. Its not already occluded or past its peak...its in the process of bombing when it gets yanked back to the W. That's the best scenario, having it get tucked west a bit as it bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 It starts out as an inv trough/frontiogenesis band, that turns into a ccb and comma head. You don't get more of a weenie solution than that. it's like they gave GAY some crayons at NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's the best scenario, having it get tucked west a bit as it bombs out. I'd agree because that is the only scenario under which I have received 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't think the HP is the issue as there is HP draining ageostrophic flow. However, midlevel centers SE and then east of us, particularly the H7 depiction which should greatly enhance snow growth is damned near perfect. If it played out like that, many of us would have an enormous dump. In this setup, the mid level lows are in a good spot for us. A high doesn't mean anything when you have a 964 low east of the Cape..lol. If it were down near MTP, that might be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it's like they gave GAY some crayons at NCEP I'd agree because that is the only scenario under which I have received 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it's like they gave GAY some crayons at NCEP LOL, I never knew that he could do FORTRAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I can picture Ryan saying that the GFS looks atrocious for HBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think Will and Scott would agree that the precip field fragmented a little more than to be excpected in that set up, though.... Just to give you something to complain about, this run dryslots you a bit at 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to give you something to complain about, this run dryslots you a bit at 132hr. I'll take a dry slot after 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Even though this has a slight retrograde I don't think people should confuse it with the occluded retrograde garbage we've had off and on around here over the last couple of winters. This bombs out closer to the coast as H5 captures it and it develops a raging CCB. This isn't the light garbage that retrogrades in after being in Nova Scotia. Yes I hear that. I also remember last January being compared to possible Feb 69 and then turning into a true retrograder from NE of us...and we know how that turned out. I'm skittish but have faith that we are not going down that road. The locals tell me 5ft fell in 5 days Feb 69. Probably an exaggeration but it was from the town road agent who does the plowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The precip shredded because the best forcing was over eastern and se areas. The air wasn't really allowed to continue to upglide as it's pulled nw. We basically had a subsidence area in those locales that hasd4-8". Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Eastern Mass is the #1 best place for weenie GFS blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We had some dry air wrap in above 700mb which made a lot of the snow growth a lowlevel thing...it worked anyway near the CF and inflow areas along the coast around BOS...but further west got fragmented precip after awhile. We would likely avoid that this time...but details like that are not for worry until we are actually sure we have a good event on our hands. You can get hammered fine without a high....just look at Feb 5, 2001. and Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. All I wanted to see from the ens.....if they whacked us right now, it would be time to worry about the shredder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Getting closer and closer to 0% chance of getting nothing..pretty much already there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. Yeah its basically a further east and weaker version of the op run which is good at this time frame. It likes the general idea and doesn't think the evolution of it is totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. Also had it at 984 mb which is not to bad in itself.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. QPF for eastern areas seems a flag though as it is more robust on the mean than expected. I suspect there are (in addition to the op) some tasty solutions among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes I hear that. I also remember last January being compared to possible Feb 69 and then turning into a true retrograder from NE of us...and we know how that turned out. I'm skittish but have faith that we are not going down that road. The locals tell me 5ft fell in 5 days Feb 69. Probably an exaggeration but it was from the town road agent who does the plowing. Last Jan was a different beast. That's what I tried to emphasize in my post. There were 2 big late events in Feb '69 that added up to a huge week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Zeus and cweat in the house....basically back in storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles develop a low about 80 miles se of the BM and then move it north to a position just south of the western tip of Nova Scotia, but stall it. If anything, it gives credit to a more stalled solution. +1 and a "hell yeah". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Even though this has a slight retrograde I don't think people should confuse it with the occluded retrograde garbage we've had off and on around here over the last couple of winters. This bombs out closer to the coast as H5 captures it and it develops a raging CCB. This isn't the light garbage that retrogrades in after being in Nova Scotia. Excellent point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I think the ensembles are about as good as you can expect at this time. I don't want them west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Snow from Thursday night-Saturday nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM def brings the whole vortex further south but its a disaster with the shortwave interference and doesn't produce much out of it....just an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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