dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Working on things. Peeked at OP GFS. LIke the 2 inches melted for MBY. Sucks..huh........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am literally laughing as I pull up each panel. Me too -- both because of the ridiculous QPF and the weird setup. To my admittedly untrained eyes, it looks like an inverted trough on enough steroids to make the 1984 East German women's swim team blush. I look forward to hearing how the mets interpret this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1060mb high across W CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Working on things. Peeked at OP GFS. LIke the 2 inches melted for MBY. As I get obliterated by like 2.5"-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sucks..huh........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It starts out as an inv trough/frontiogenesis band, that turns into a ccb and comma head. You don't get more of a weenie solution than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Granted we would not jackpot on the 00z EURO depiction, however I would not lament it because we would fare better than the last event.....not only were the mid level centers not tucked as far to the west, but the shredding seen that wknd was anomalous to the point where I just don't think it would happen to that degree....even given identical circumstances. The 00z EURO was great because we know the EURO is going to dig this too far s , at one point, so I like where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS op a big hit on 6Z and a huge hit 12z. Euro a monster hit 0Z. I like the trend but wish it were 2 days closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 And the day 9-10 solution is suppressed and is a SE/MA threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It starts out as an inv trough/frontiogenesis band, that turns into a ccb and comma head. You don't get more of a weenie solution than that. That's like Feb '69...backing in like that from the east after starting out as an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It starts out as an inv trough/frontiogenesis band, that turns into a ccb and comma head. You don't get more of a weenie solution than that. It's not that far fetched a solution as the low gets captured and retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 and anyone NW who thinks they are out of the good stuff just remember the iron clad rule, that played out last storm, the best snows are always NW of the actual bomb. Well when do EM and locals begin prep this time? im totally fine here..... 6-12 inches and much more in new england, great run the best part of the run was that NJ is shutout, however i am defintely concerned that the h5 is digging further south......id hate to see this trend away to the MA, nightmare that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Would make for a lot of happy folk........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Me too -- both because of the ridiculous QPF and the weird setup. To my admittedly untrained eyes, it looks like an inverted trough on enough steroids to make the 1984 East German women's swim team blush. I look forward to hearing how the mets interpret this. Pretty much par for the course when it's trying to resolve a pattern that wants the low further west IMO. The norlun seems to be a flag most of the time to a pending west trend/normal track. If it had no support from the EC it's often support for a later OTS shift, but this one seems to be well set. Days away but it's kind of clear a big one is coming with the details of who/where from DC to Maine to be sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's like Feb '69...backing in like that from the east after starting out as an inverted trough. Yes it is, I had 36" in that storm.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Earlier today (I think) I posted that my trip to visit my daughters this weekend in Baltimore will beat a redux of 1978. Well, there it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I cringe with any mention of stall/retrograde. Or inverted trough. Always looks better on the models than in my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's like Feb '69...backing in like that from the east after starting out as an inverted trough. Oh boy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Surface low takes a classic loop track east of Cape Cod. The loop idea is gaining more and more support, wherever it actually occurs. Classic epic Miller B screwage NYC and southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It starts out as an inv trough/frontiogenesis band, that turns into a ccb and comma head. You don't get more of a weenie solution than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes it is, I had 36" in that storm.......... Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Granted we would not jackpot on the 00z EURO depiction, however I would not lament it because we would fare better than the last event.....not only were the mid level centers not tucked as far to the west, but the shredding seen that wknd was anomalous to the point where I just don't think it would happen to that degree....even given identical circumstances. The 00z EURO was great because we know the EURO is going to dig this too far s , at one point, so I like where we stand. Wasn't the shredding of the precip. bands due to the marginal mid-level temps? Possibly due to the high pressure to our north being displaced slightly west of where we like it. I'm going to be very careful with my optimism for the area between ORH and the E. slope of the Berks until I see a strong high sitting NW of us. Would like to see the models indicating avoidance of another 80 mile wide screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Earlier today (I think) I posted that my trip to visit my daughters this weekend in Baltimore will beat a redux of 1978. Well, there it is! You should have visited them last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tip, as of now What are your quick thoughts? I believe the future GFS runs settle SW and the Euro comes a tad up the Coast...in time. pin point the best statistical locaiton for the compensating retrograde up N is between NJ and the Benchmark. Above 50% for an above median scale impactor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Even though this has a slight retrograde I don't think people should confuse it with the occluded retrograde garbage we've had off and on around here over the last couple of winters. This bombs out closer to the coast as H5 captures it and it develops a raging CCB. This isn't the light garbage that retrogrades in after being in Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I believe the future GFS runs settle SW and the Euro comes a tad up the Coast...in time. pin point the best statistical locaiton for the compensating retrograde up N is between NJ and the Benchmark. Above 50% for an above median scale impactor. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wasn't the shredding of the precip. bands due to the marginal mid-level temps? Possibly due to the high pressure to our north being displaced slightly west of where we like it. I'm going to be very careful with my optimism for the area between ORH and the E. slope of the Berks until I see a strong high sitting NW of us. Would like to see the models indicating avoidance of another 80 mile wide screw zone. The precip shredded because the best forcing was over eastern and se areas. The air wasn't really allowed to continue to upglide as it's pulled nw. We basically had a subsidence area in those locales that hasd4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wasn't the shredding of the precip. bands due to the marginal mid-level temps? Possibly due to the high pressure to our north being displaced slightly west of where we like it. I'm going to be very careful with my optimism for the area between ORH and the E. slope of the Berks until I see a strong high sitting NW of us. Would like to see the models indicating avoidance of another 80 mile wide screw zone. We had some dry air wrap in above 700mb which made a lot of the snow growth a lowlevel thing...it worked anyway near the CF and inflow areas along the coast around BOS...but further west got fragmented precip after awhile. We would likely avoid that this time...but details like that are not for worry until we are actually sure we have a good event on our hands. You can get hammered fine without a high....just look at Feb 5, 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think Will and Scott would agree that the precip field fragmented a little more than to be excpected in that set up, though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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