CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Boy the pattern sure looks nice over the next two weeks. Big time -EPO developing and a returning -nao AGAIN at the end of the ensembles. With the trough axis to our west, it will open the door up for potential storm threats over the next 2 weeks. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the storms brings ptype issues for some...but overall, looks like a good pattern. As far as this next event goes, still some big differences to resolve. The euro ensembles have the low passing just east of the BM, but looks like lots of spread with some members west. Looks like a good hit for sne..esp eastern areas. Glad to see the 06z gfs op come back from the 00z crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agreed. Let's see.......could be anyone between north of Baltimore to New Brunswick (and I don't mean NJ). A pretty big dart board five days out. Still think the safest course of action at this juncture is a moderate event possible region-wide. Yeah, 3-6" seems like a safe bet from that mess for most of the interior, anyway. Most of the models have a pretty good area of precip coming through SNE, however the winds appear to be more easterly which is definitely a kiss of death in marginal airmass. Should be an deep NW interior/mtns special IF the H7 low moves across SNE, which is maybe the more likely solution. Watch now the storm will dig south of DC and give them four feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Boy the pattern sure looks nice over the next two weeks. Big time -EPO developing and a returning -nao AGAIN at the end of the ensembles. With the trough axis to our west, it will open the door up for potential storm threats over the next 2 weeks. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the storms brings ptype issues for some...but overall, looks like a good pattern. As far as this next event goes, still some big differences to resolve. The euro ensembles have the low passing just east of the BM, but looks like lots of spread with some members west. Looks like a good hit for sne..esp eastern areas. Glad to see the 06z gfs op come back from the 00z crap. In one run, We have solutions way south and way north, And the truth probably lies in the middle.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, 3-6" seems like a safe bet from that mess for most of the interior, anyway. Most of the models have a pretty good area of precip coming through SNE, however the winds appear to be more easterly which is definitely a kiss of death in marginal airmass. Should be an deep NW interior/mtns special IF the H7 low moves across SNE, which is maybe the more likely solution. Watch now the storm will dig south of DC and give them four feet. 2011 now, they're done for another several decades.Balance has been restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In one run, We have solutions way south and way north, And the truth probably lies in the middle.......... Yeah they'll be some wavering as expected. I can't see qpf on the euro ensembles...only probabilities of qpf amounts, and they are pretty robust for 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah they'll be some wavering as expected. I can't see qpf on the euro ensembles...only probabilities of qpf amounts, and they are pretty robust for 5+ days out. That op run on the 00z euro was similar in some ways to the last storm, But dropping the pv that far south in 1 run is questioable at best, This might be the case where the euro has its hiccup before adjusting back north...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 0 / 6z NOGAPS back to the coastal storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Something like the Euro ensembles idea is probably the most likely outcome. A solid warning event for all of SNE..but not the blizzard the Euro op has or the dusting Ryan is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That op run on the 00z euro was similar in some ways to the last storm, But dropping the pv that far south in 1 run is questionable at best, This might be the case where the euro has its hiccup before adjusting back north...... Yeah that was unexpected..lol. Ensembles definitely didn't buy that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that was unexpected..lol. Ensembles definitely didn't buy that solution. I was quite surprised when i ran the 00z euro run and saw that, I expected it to be where it was or below sne at best, It had held pretty steady for the most part north, But that is pretty extreme, Tale lies with the ensembles one would think as they have held the course pretty much...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Boy the pattern sure looks nice over the next two weeks. Big time -EPO developing and a returning -nao AGAIN at the end of the ensembles. With the trough axis to our west, it will open the door up for potential storm threats over the next 2 weeks. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the storms brings ptype issues for some...but overall, looks like a good pattern. As far as this next event goes, still some big differences to resolve. The euro ensembles have the low passing just east of the BM, but looks like lots of spread with some members west. Looks like a good hit for sne..esp eastern areas. Glad to see the 06z gfs op come back from the 00z crap. HPC seems going pretty conservative with a path outside the benchmark perhaps bending back slightly west up in the GOM although that sounds just like the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC seems going pretty conservative with a path outside the benchmark perhaps bending back slightly west up in the GOM although that sounds just like the EC ensembles. Yeah it looks like the euro ensembles. Conservative is the way to go for now, until we get some more conclusive evidence..which won't happen for another 72 hrs at least. I think it's safe to say the some sort of a lgt to possible mdt event is there for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You really think it is going to be 72 hours? I think we get a much better sense tonight, maybe 12Z tomorrow...probably not exact but I think the nature of the storm and the general setup gets clear tonight. The low is forming off the coast on Thursday I think and that is 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 too bad the clipper won't pan out...would've been nice to have something to follow in the short-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You really think it is going to be 72 hours? I think we get a much better sense tonight, maybe 12Z tomorrow...probably not exact but I think the nature of the storm and the general setup gets clear tonight. The low is forming off the coast on Thursday I think and that is 84 Well sure, we'll have more confidence if 00z tonight hits it hard again, but as far as the details go..I think this will take time. I guess it just depends how you look at it. If it's more like the gfs depiction with a narrow area of qpf, then it will take much longer to resolve. We're still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't think the big blizzard idea the Euro has is going to work. Just a good old fashioned New England snowstorm is very likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was the 6z GFS the inverted trough from hell solution? Whole evolution of the storm looked crazy but it dropped 2" qpf over much of SNE so... . Just wondering because I think it was the 12z euro or something that had a crazy inverted trough that buried most of the area. If we got a euro run like this back in early december I think there'd at least be a handful of members jumping for joy and locking in a major. How far we've come after just a couple times of the euro op over-doing it in the mid range. I like that the ensembles have held steady, keeps the hope alive for a WSW 6-12 type snowfall. At this point for boston I'd go.. 45% advisory 40% warning 4% major (with possible p-type issues in the area) 1% total whiff/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was the 6z GFS the inverted trough from hell solution? Whole evolution of the storm looked crazy but it dropped 2" qpf over much of SNE so... . Just wondering because I think it was the 12z euro or something that had a crazy inverted trough that buried most of the area. If we got a euro run like this back in early december I think there'd at least be a handful of members jumping for joy and locking in a major. How far we've come after just a couple times of the euro op over-doing it in the mid range. I like that the ensembles have held steady, keeps the hope alive for a WSW 6-12 type snowfall. At this point for boston I'd go.. 45% advisory 40% warning 4% major (with possible p-type issues in the area) 1% total whiff/flurries My call: 55% advisory 10% major 25% warning 10% whiff/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 let's keep the storm disco in this thread instead of the obs thread. Not sure why it's been there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 let's keep the storm disco in this thread instead of the obs thread. Not sure why it's been there Talk to Will, Ray, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well sure, we'll have more confidence if 00z tonight hits it hard again, but as far as the details go..I think this will take time. I guess it just depends how you look at it. If it's more like the gfs depiction with a narrow area of qpf, then it will take much longer to resolve. We're still 5+ days out. I'm probably working out of the old paradigm where the models give a signal 7 or 8 days out, get confused 5 or 6 days out and then a clearer direction (with details of course to be worked out) emerges at 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was the 6z GFS the inverted trough from hell solution? Whole evolution of the storm looked crazy but it dropped 2" qpf over much of SNE so... . Just wondering because I think it was the 12z euro or something that had a crazy inverted trough that buried most of the area. If we got a euro run like this back in early december I think there'd at least be a handful of members jumping for joy and locking in a major. How far we've come after just a couple times of the euro op over-doing it in the mid range. I like that the ensembles have held steady, keeps the hope alive for a WSW 6-12 type snowfall. At this point for boston I'd go.. 45% advisory 40% warning 4% major (with possible p-type issues in the area) 1% total whiff/flurries I don't understand how inverted trough storms work, but if we have this strong PV sitting over NE then is the set up one in which a low runs offshore and then the PV being so strong pulls the moisture back inland? Would this be the kind of scenario that would give a good chance for that to happen? Gosh just gimme a swfe already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With all the issues models have had so far this year in all the ranges, I still think this was/is the timeframe where solutions took wild swings or were lost for a run or 2, I think we will have a better idea hopefully at 00z and tomorow as to what direction we are heading...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Heh, kind of surprised actually this thread didn't run up to 101 pages upon seeing that Euro run... It's probably encouraging on some level that it did not, because people are [hopefully] getting less trigger happy and more analytical. That said, *HOLY SHISTER* J/K... serioiusly though, this run is so beautiful to look at but unfortunately, and I am sure this has been discussed, this is just as discontinuous as the previous 3 cycles of this model. There's that, and the fact that the GFS's recent verification scores are rivaling the Euro, where the 00z GFS did not agree very well. The 06z GFS did "trend" that way - which is a red flag not to drop the Euro notion for me because the 06z (as I have been made aware) should be treated as another ensemble, and 2 or 3 of the 00z members did have a slow moving hyper bomb. Personally? I believe that signals that the 12z GFS comes in with big big problem from DCA up the Coast but that's just me. The Euro is actually doing this at D4.5, which is about 12 hours inside its wheelhouse of oops I should have gone with that. But we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC mentions Feb 78' in the updated prelim... VALID 12Z FRI JAN 07 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST SWWDA POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS A RATHEREXTREME SWRN OUTLIER IN DROPPING A PIECE OF POLAR VORTEX SSE ALLTHE WAY FROM HUDSON BAY TO VA... THE 06Z/03 GFS HAS TRENDED A BITTOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SAT...GIVING A NEWD ADJUSTED ECMWFSCENARIO SOME CREDIBILITY. THIS MAINTAINS REASONABLE HPCCONTINUITY WITH THIS POTENTIAL E COAST SYS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.WHILE NOT OVERPLAYING ANALOGS... I STILL WANT TO POINT OUT SOMESIMILARITY IN THE PRESENT HPC SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND TO THAT OF FEB6 1978...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MILLIBARS... WHICH WAS A MAJOR BLIZZARDFOR ERN PA/NY/NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECENS AND 06Z GEFS MODEL MEANS SUGGEST THAT AN ANOTHERAREA TO WATCH CONCERNS THE NEW TROF DIGGING INTO THE WERNSTATES... WHERE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEBERS SUGGEST A DEEPER TROF EARLYNEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC mentions Feb 78' in the updated prelim... Without looking...is that Cisco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Without looking...is that Cisco? Rausch/Flood tag team effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC mentions Feb 78' in the updated prelim... Lol...they are hype machines sometimes. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am disappointed by the lack of sleet potential. But, as a karate expert, I won't talk about anything like that right now. I'm going to go ahead and ignore the "real features" and call this a giant Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Rausch/Flood tag team effort Seems kind of crazy to start chucking that analog around..almost like I got ahold of the HPC winter wx desk computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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