HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nice avatar...me thinks you'll need to shed a few lbs. If you plan to play ball at a big time university No one lies a skinny lineman...Eat papa, eat Tuesday night deal done/dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No one lies a skinny lineman...Eat papa, eat Tuesday night deal done/dead? Other than a few flurries I think so yeah. It was never really modeled to be much more than some light snow showers...we were just speculating that it could turn better if things trended right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks to be seasonable and dry until Friday, lets hope these models trending to a nne jackpot start to spread the wealth around a little more, lots of time, and many vortices to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nice avatar...me thinks you'll need to shed a few lbs. If you plan to play ball at a big time university No one lies a skinny lineman...Eat papa, eat Tuesday night deal done/dead? He broke'ded my nose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's funny how the gfs went back to the 2 max qpf idea. Pretty tough I think, to get two large separate dumpings of snow like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not bad if we can get some good h7 inflow before we get to this lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would be shocked if that 12z ECM verified that way. 1) the continuity between 12z yesterday, 00z today, and now 12z today is about as incoherent as imaginably frustrating... 2) it is very rare to get two systems above median intensity within 36 hours of one another; to do so with two actual bombs is bordering on physically impossible on this planet out side some kind of exotically super rare deal. We'd have better odds of being annihilated by an asteroid tomorrow. the last several systems the Euro has taken great strides to elaborately prove it's uselessness beyond D5 in any given pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I would be shocked if that 12z ECM verified that way. 1) the continuity between 12z yesterday, 00z today, and now 12z today is about as incoherent as imaginably frustrating... 2) it is very rare to get two systems above median intensity within 36 hours of one another; to do so with two actual bombs is bordering on physically impossible on this planet out side some kind of exotically super rare deal. We'd have better odds of being annihilated by an asteroid tomorrow. the last several systems the Euro has taken great strides to elaborately prove it's uselessness beyond D5 in any given pattern. Yeah john it hasn't been too great in recent weeks. Im sure it's still leading the h5 nh verification race but it has underperformed on the east coast imo. I actually think the gfs has been pretty good in the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah john it hasn't been too great in recent weeks. Im sure it's still leading the h5 nh verification race but it has underperformed on the east coast imo. I actually think the gfs has been pretty good in the last month. I think Will said it earlier and I agree...the ensembles have been pretty good (well as good as you can expect) in the 5-7 day timeframe. While they may not be totally right, I thought they had the better forecast for the last couple of storm during that time...iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think Will said it earlier and I agree...the ensembles have been pretty good (well as good as you can expect) in the 5-7 day timeframe. While they may not be totally right, I thought they had the better forecast for the last couple of storm during that time...iirc. Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol I think the intermediate runs sway people sometimes, with their wild swings. If I compare runs...I usually like to compare 00z to 12z or vice-versa. That doesn't mean I can't compare 06z to 12z, but I feel like comparing the 00z runs and 12z runs is like apples to apples...if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah I agree with that. Ens forecasting has really shown it's value recently. I think from an op. Standpoint...the gfs has actually been ok. If it were only run 2 times a day (not because 6z and 18z are bad but it would lessen the number of "swings" on a daily basis) I think we would treat it better. Lol GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in. Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run. I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in. Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run. I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking. Yeah it's interesting how the lack of a se ridge has totally thrown out the 200 mile nw trend within 72 hrs..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in. Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run. I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking. I've been surprised by the short-range troubles. With the massive 5h traffic jam I've essentially given up caring about anything beyond about 3.5-4 days...but my confidence has been shaken even inside of 2 days recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS OP did very well inside of 72 hours last system...but it actually got schooled by the Euro in the D5-6 time frame. Its hard to give th eEuro a lot of credit though because of how bad it did once closer in. Euro ensemble mean seemed to be the most consistent all the way through with the last couple of systems. It did have the one HECS run even on the ensembles with the Dec 19-20 system, but that was one run. I think with the extreme and exotic blocking to the north, the models are ripe for having a lot of trouble in the medium range. We saw it a lot last winter too. When the blocking was less or non-existent back in '07-'08 and '08-'09, it seemed a lot easier to latch onto a model solution or trend and predict what might happen. I was consistently out-pacing the models during those Nina winters in the D3 time range...but I've felt like I've been spun in circles during this past year of extreme blocking. I'm not sure the models struggled that much last winter. I thought that in the blocking regime they actually locked onto solutions in the medium term fairly well, with the major blizzards in the Mid Atlantic very well predicted. The frequent SWFEs and a few Miller Bs in those last La Nina winters were definitely much easier to stay ahead of model guidance on. There were clear trends, and not nearly as much radical shifting in the short term like we've seen this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 06z gfs ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 06z gfs ftw Yeah, that'll please a lot of folks. Models all over the place this a.m. .. interesting day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like that all guidance is pointing to a big storm. Somebody is going to get plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 06z gfs ftw Made me smile. Of course it'll suck if I return from MD to find 2' of snow in the driveway that I need to clear in order to get back to the house. I'd much prefer being here for the event. 23.7/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another blizzard and 967 south of ACK. Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like that all guidance is pointing to a big storm. Somebody is going to get plastered. Agreed. Let's see.......could be anyone between north of Baltimore to New Brunswick (and I don't mean NJ). A pretty big dart board five days out. Still think the safest course of action at this juncture is a moderate event possible region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another blizzard and 967 south of ACK. Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM Wow, I thought I'd find several pages to peruse this morning.. That's the Euro inside of D5 isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another blizzard and 967 south of ACK. Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM It was discussed in another thread, which you probably by now have discovered. But yeah, huge hits keep coming. Let's keep the bus rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agreed. Let's see.......could be anyone between north of Baltimore to New Brunswick (and I don't mean NJ). A pretty big dart board five days out. Still think the safest course of action at this juncture is a moderate event possible region-wide. Might as well throw caution to the wind. Big Bomb incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another a blizzard and 967 south of ACK. Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM My "north of baltimore" comment following yours was irt to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Might as well throw caution to the wind. Big Bomb incoming. If we can develop consistency and agreement over the next 12-24 hours, I'll being throwing weenies to the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Every model run has a differnt solution, Looks like its going to be a few more cycles before we start to iron this out......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 THURSDAY NIGHT...WE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...AS THE SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER CONTINUES. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARISE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE DIGGING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FURTHER EQUATORWARD OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. THIS WOULD ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRI. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY WAVE MUCH FURTHER POLEWARD NEAR ERN LONG ISLAND WHICH KEEP SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW GOING. THE CAN GGEM IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. OVERALL...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FRI-SAT...VERY CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST...WHERE ONE SCENARIO IS FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND /GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE CANADIAN GGEM/...AND ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE A HALF DOZEN OR SO GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE SFC CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION...THEN SLOWLY LIFT THE WAVE N/NE TOWARDS LONG ISLAND FRI NIGHT...THEN KICK THE STORM OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SCENARIO INTENSIFIES THE SFC LOW TO LESS THAN 970 HPA SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND THEN THE LOW BECOMES OCCLUDED. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WOULD POTENTIALLY GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE HWO YET. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE HPC GRAPHICS WITH THE LATEST ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST AN EXTENDED LIGHT SNOW THREAT TO GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS FROM FRI-SAT. COOL AND WARM SEASON CSTAR RESEARCH HAS SHOW HOW PROBLEMATIC CUTOFF LOWS CAN BE FORECASTING THEIR QPF DISTRIBUTION AND TRACK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAX TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE STRETCH RANGING FROM THE 20-30F RANGE...AND LOWS IN THE 5-15F RANGE. Another great, detailed Disco out of the ALB office. They've really been on the ball lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL...not one post on the 00z Euro this morning.. Shocking. It gives us another blizzard and 967 south of ACK. Euro ensembles very consistant right over the BM Give it a couple days. Too many disasters in 2010, we need to let 2011 run it's course and let us feel safe again. As we thought. I'm liking where things stand right now for January...a few storm chances and probably roller coaster temp swings maybe landing in the freezer for mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow, I thought I'd find several pages to peruse this morning.. That's the Euro inside of D5 isn't it? They had it in the obs thread for some reason..it says disco/obs thread..but any storm disco should be in pattern ahead thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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