Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 I don't know about 0% chance, but its probably fairly low. Even a busted solution might give us a couple inches kind of like the pre-Christmas fiasco (except Cape which got smoked)...when you get those types of ULLs with vorticity rotating underneath New England, you'll usually at least get some light snows. Only way this would produce zippo is if the ULL stayed well north and also had no vort max rotating around the southern end of it below our latitude. I think we'd all relish 1-3..and cherish 6-12. Either way it's snow..and any snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think we'd all relish 1-3..and cherish 6-12. Either way it's snow..and any snow is good snow Weenies in Georgia relish 1-3'', this is New England. I relish 4-6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Weenies in Georgia relish 1-3'', this is New England. I relish 4-6''. Totally agree, but unlike Kev, I respect folks' preferences. Someone gets a boot out of .1"\hr rates, more power to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Weenies in Georgia relish 1-3'', this is New England. I relish 4-6''. I'll take 1-3"...obviously I want more than that...but you learn to take what you can get at any opportunity. There could be another great chance in the D9-10 time frame...so we'll try again later if we can't get a big one here. I do feel reasonably confident though that this will be at least advisory snow for a larger part of the region. As confident as you can be at this time range anyway. The blocking is going to want to push any pv lobe south and east which is good. So even imperfect solutions end up with some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take 1-3"...obviously I want more than that...but you learn to take what you can get at any opportunity. There could be another great chance in the D9-10 time frame...so we'll try again later if we can't get a big one here. I do feel reasonably confident though that this will be at least advisory snow for a larger part of the region. As confident as you can be at this time range anyway. The blocking is going to want to push any pv lobe south and east which is good. So even imperfect solutions end up with some snow. I agree with you. I think the odds are good for something at least light..maybe even mdt. I'll be happy with 1-3 or 2-4...whatever..it will be a nice refresher. The one thing I Iike, is that it's pretty close for something a lot better, and we don't have to pray for a miracle in some sort of an H5 adjustment. FWIW the ensembles hinted at a d9 low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take 1-3"...obviously I want more than that...but you learn to take what you can get at any opportunity. There could be another great chance in the D9-10 time frame...so we'll try again later if we can't get a big one here. I do feel reasonably confident though that this will be at least advisory snow for a larger part of the region. As confident as you can be at this time range anyway. The blocking is going to want to push any pv lobe south and east which is good. So even imperfect solutions end up with some snow. Don't have much of a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm not bit**ing......maybe that was a poor choice of a word.....just meant status quo. Please... you're probably sitting naked at your desk with a bag over your head and a belt around your neck, sexting Kev and waiting for the 18z DGEX to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 NAM strangely increasing the dusting to 1 capability tonight late night through the wee hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 :lmao: EURO has a weenie in the 50\50 position. rofl.... Euro photo-chopped itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Please... you're probably sitting naked at your desk with a bag over your head and a belt around your neck, sexting Kev and waiting for the 18z DGEX to come out. Presuming you're on a business trip...here's the tried and true method of making it home in time and leaving before business is done. "My wife called....I need to get home early..." (remember to let her know to call so you're not a liar...and besides she'd be happy to get some help..). Leave pre red eye, get home at midnight Thurs night. Let them know how bad you feel Fri morning and offer to pick up some local stuff during Friday so they can rest after being interminably delayed. Has worked for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Please... you're probably sitting naked at your desk with a bag over your head and a belt around your neck, sexting Kev and waiting for the 18z DGEX to come out. Because I said "meh".....that is pretty out-of-left-field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Latest 18z RUC has a nice developing comma head starting up for SE MA around 12-2am tomorrow morning. Maybe some nice snows for this little frontal wave developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm locking in my 2" QPF. Has there any storm/potential storm that doesn't give us 2"qpf 5 or 6 days out? Lol it always happens....I dont' believe it until it happens unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Midweek clipper could be a dandy, I have a feeling the GFS is off kilter and kills the northern stream vort max too quickly. The NAM would be the model to follow in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 DT thinks 10+ LOL. you shouldn't misquote a guy who makes his living forecasting. He said 10 inches would qualify as a major storm in New England. He said he thinks we get a significant snow not a major snow....he made that distinction clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Midweek clipper could be a dandy, I have a feeling the GFS is off kilter and kills the northern stream vort max too quickly. The NAM would be the model to follow in this case. NAM doesn't really show anything either. I think the clipper threat is close to being dead. We might get a few flurries or a feather dusting if lucky, but its just not organized enough for accumulating snow...vortmax is not very consolidated as it goes through and it would help if it dug a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 LOL. you shouldn't misquote a guy who makes his living forecasting. He said 10 inches would qualify as a major storm in New England. He said he thinks we get a significant snow not a major snow....he made that distinction clearly. LOL Classic rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z GFS eventually shoves the entire PV underneath us but there is all sorts of shortwave interference to prevent a monster solution. However, it does eventually produce a high end advisory event to low end warning event for a chunk of the region. It hits southern Maine a lot harder which has been a theme on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Interesting pattern taking shape. Not sure how much it delivers in the next 7 days but beats warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z GFS eventually shoves the entire PV underneath us but there is all sorts of shortwave interference to prevent a monster solution. However, it does eventually produce a high end advisory event to low end warning event for a chunk of the region. It hits southern Maine a lot harder which has been a theme on today's runs. Nice long duration event. So much time to go but do wonder if we end up with some odd sw to ne gradient or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nice long duration event. So much time to go but do wonder if we end up with some odd sw to ne gradient or something... Thats quite typical in these inverted trough events where phasing never really occurs cleanly. You'd almost certainly favor downeast Maine the most, then eastern MA/SE NH and moving SW. We certainly could get a much more substantial event if the phasing occurs a little cleaner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z GFS eventually shoves the entire PV underneath us but there is all sorts of shortwave interference to prevent a monster solution. However, it does eventually produce a high end advisory event to low end warning event for a chunk of the region. It hits southern Maine a lot harder which has been a theme on today's runs. It looked ok for me, but I thought it could have been a bit further s to take on a more optimal appeal for the majority of the region, and ascend from significant to epic for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Thats quite typical in these inverted trough events where phasing never really occurs cleanly. You'd almost certainly favor downeast Maine the most, then eastern MA/SE NH and moving SW. We certainly could get a much more substantial event if the phasing occurs a little cleaner. Yeah seems modeling is moving back and forth between a full on coastal for sne and a more norlun/inverted trough scenario with the main development a bit too late. Im sure it will waffle back and forth for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS ensembles are a wreck....the mean has a monster area of 1000mb isotherm that covers the entire NE including a chunk fo the Atlantic ocean and SE Canada with no isobars inside of it at 108h...then it focuses an area just E of the BM at 120h but a large amount of isobars bulging W indicating a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z DGEX is a ME special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 18z DGEX is a ME special. Shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Shifted north. Yea....bad trend on that awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yea....bad trend on that awful model. lol ... as long as a storm is still depicted nearby I'm cool with it, no matter how low on the totem pole a model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 lol ... as long as a storm is still depicted nearby I'm cool with it, no matter how low on the totem pole a model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nice avatar...me thinks you'll need to shed a few lbs. If you plan to play ball at a big time university Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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