40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This. A little to close to the cape for my liking I welcome the introduction of precip type issues as a variable in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro isn't far from producing at widespread KU D8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 DT thinks 10+ Is he back, or from his facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Is he back, or from his facebook Facebook on my wall in a back and forth convo earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If the bullseye currently is in SW Maine, move it 125 miles SW towards Central CT and that will probably be the verification. SW trending Bullseyes FTW with the building blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The GFS is absolutely terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If the bullseye currently is in SW Maine, move it 125 miles SW towards Central CT and that will probably be the verification. SW trending Bullseyes FTW with the building blocking. Euro solution probably isn't verifying anyway...whether status quo or 100 miles SW or NE. This is a pretty complex setup with about 10 different ways to produce an event...of varying impact. Long long ways to go in this one. The more recent trends on model runs make it a later storm and push it back 12-18 hours which only prolongs the wait for more confidence in solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Another storm d9? PV out by lake Superior FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I welcome the introduction of precip type issues as a variable in this. If it means 2 ft for you I'm all for it.. but I want a foot myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Another storm d9? PV out by lake Superior FTW. What a nuclear pattern this is; just need reach for the antiseptic to rinse the 2010 breath out of our mouths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 My wife just reminded me we're heading to MD on Friday for the weekend. Lock the storm in, folks! Then, Jamaica the following Wednesday-Friday. Lock one in then, too. Maybe Scott can work to get my flight out of BDL canceled so I can stay home. 43.0/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What a mess....the only thing that I really understand is that I want a trend sw. yeah this one is for those with a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 what's it show for hartford area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 just saw the euro in detail love it you guys get hammered i get several inches of snow all week long its 2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow....2.1" of QPF over 36 hrs......2" of QPF over 30 hrs. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow....2.1" of QPF over 36 hrs......2" of QPF over 30 hrs. I'd take it. How many hours out are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 How many hours out are we? D6 so about 138 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wow....2.1" of QPF over 36 hrs......2" of QPF over 30 hrs. I'd take it. Congrats! How generous is the qpf in the western zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz". They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that model is telling you "I'm giving a storm until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz". I think we're sitll way too early to be uneasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Congrats! How generous is the qpf in the western zones? about 1 inch or slightly more in western mass lets call it 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think we're sitll way too early to be uneasy. I'm speaking in relative terms, which I tried to make clear in an effort to avoid the "it's too early" lynch mob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz". They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped. There really is no point to be easy or uneasy at this time. One thing we do have going for us is that the Euro has nailed down the past 2 storms at this time range, lost them between 126-96 and brought them back from about 72 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz". They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped. i agree with you. its an inverted trough from he11 but how often do those work out, we all know the answer id rather see a better organized system come back in the next set of runs. the GEM/GFS have both trended poorly as well the past couple runs. still lots of time though and im sure the final outcome will be quite different anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think we're sitll way too early to be uneasy. Definitely not too early if you are only satisfied by storms that drop >20" + Crossing my fingers that this keeps showing solutions, nice to keep things exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 about 1 inch or slightly more in western mass lets call it 1-1.25 Thanks--obviously doesn't mean anything yet, but still fun to dream. 43.0/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm speaking in relative terms, which I tried to make clear in an effort to avoid the "it's too early" lynch mob. Definitely not too early if you are only satisfied by storms that drop >20" + Crossing my fingers that this keeps showing solutions, nice to keep things exciting. You have an issue with reading comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 What a nuclear pattern this is; just need reach for the antiseptic to rinse the 2010 breath out of our mouths. Don't even mention it. 2011 is going to throttle SNE while the MA stands with their noses pressed against the window. Payback's a b*tch. Today's 12z Euro is just an affirmation that there is a viable threat still very much alive. The final story is still several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 about 1 inch or slightly more in western mass lets call it 1-1.25 Does that extend right on down to the coast? I'd be satisfied with 8-10 out of this one if it wasn't blown apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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