Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The return of winter pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

If the bullseye currently is in SW Maine, move it 125 miles SW towards Central CT and that will probably be the verification. SW trending Bullseyes FTW with the building blocking.

Euro solution probably isn't verifying anyway...whether status quo or 100 miles SW or NE. This is a pretty complex setup with about 10 different ways to produce an event...of varying impact. Long long ways to go in this one. The more recent trends on model runs make it a later storm and push it back 12-18 hours which only prolongs the wait for more confidence in solutions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz".

They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that model is telling you "I'm giving a storm until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz".

I think we're sitll way too early to be uneasy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz".

They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped.

There really is no point to be easy or uneasy at this time. One thing we do have going for us is that the Euro has nailed down the past 2 storms at this time range, lost them between 126-96 and brought them back from about 72 on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a little more uneasy than I normally would be, even at this extended lead, because of the inverted trough like nature of the precip field.....inverted troughs and retrogrades are the tell-tale sign that the model is telling you "I'm giving you a storm for now, until I can figure out exactly how I'm going to hand you your azz".

They are transient soloutions, more often than not indicative of an situation in flux, which the models have not yet remotely grasped.

i agree with you.

its an inverted trough from he11 but how often do those work out, we all know the answer

id rather see a better organized system come back in the next set of runs.

the GEM/GFS have both trended poorly as well the past couple runs.

still lots of time though and im sure the final outcome will be quite different anyways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm speaking in relative terms, which I tried to make clear in an effort to avoid the "it's too early" lynch mob.

Definitely not too early if you are only satisfied by storms that drop >20" +

Crossing my fingers that this keeps showing solutions, nice to keep things exciting.

rolleyes.gif

You have an issue with reading comprehension.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a nuclear pattern this is; just need reach for the antiseptic to rinse the 2010 breath out of our mouths.

Don't even mention it. 2011 is going to throttle SNE while the MA stands with their noses pressed against the window. Payback's a b*tch. Today's 12z Euro is just an affirmation that there is a viable threat still very much alive. The final story is still several days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...