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The return of winter pattern disco


Damage In Tolland

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Here's a snapshot of the latest 8 GEFS runs centered on 18z Jan 7. Good consistency so far. Checked the 850mb/250 mb wind anomalies and they aren't too impressive, but that should be expected since there is a fair amount of spread among the members.

post-1711-0-16873000-1293931361.png

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Looks like the -NAO is not so severe in the longer range. hoever, -EPO rages. and sends artic air into CONUS and east

It retrogrades west and weakens, but that's been the MO for the last two months. After it retrogrades and weakens, another ridge builds over Greenland. Pretty remarkable stuff.

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So does the -EPO mean some chances for SWFE? My call for this month was a big storm as the blocking returns, a pulse in the blocking which brings SWFEs and then another big storm as blocking returns again. I don't think we had a -EPO last winter and of course it never got really cold

I suppose it's possible if we get a big trough to develop in the west, like some of the models try to show. It looks like we'll have a big high anchored out west, with maybe one of those deals where the high branches over to the east. If that happens, and the trough deepens in the west..it could be overrunning/swfe type stuff/ Way too early to tell though.

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It retrogrades west and weakens, but that's been the MO for the last two months. After it retrogrades and weakens, another ridge builds over Greenland. Pretty remarkable stuff.

With the NAO waxing and waning and the western trof possibly devoloping later on. You'd have to thing the Heather Archambault transitional NE storms will occur too.

Wow, i like that -EPO Arctic air after the 8th storm ( possible storm) pulls east

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From what I'm seeing/reading this is not a setup that overwhelms...the mets have been talking about possibly a trough just to our west which would be awesome.

By the way I think we get a 1-3 dealio on Tues night.

Thats good we don't need storm tracks surpressed over the south, 1-3" might be a stretch but we could use some snow to cover up the brown spots before a good dumping Friday..... :snowman:

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With the NAO waxing and waning and the western trof possibly devoloping later on. You'd have to thing the Heather Archambault transitional NE storms will occur too.

Wow, i like that -EPO Arctic air after the 8th storm ( possible storm) pulls east

Good point...goes to show you that you don't necessarily need the classic -NAO/+PNA setup for big snows.

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The long range looks frigid with that -EPO developing

f264.gif

Finally, Will, a chance to rid Canada of the moderate Pacific air we've had for a while. I know Canada hasn't been nearly as warm as last winter, but it seems as if we haven't had anything really arctic up there for a while, except in AK and the Yukon. The models are advertising a very amplified pattern with the monster -EPO block bringing a PV into the Canadian Prairies, something we saw briefly in mid-February last winter but which wasn't at all sustained. It's interesting to see the ensembles are showing the AK block as basically the only area of above normal heights in the Northern Hemisphere; it does seem as if overall hemispheric temperatures have been declining with the strong La Niña but that's still very impressive. Also, I'm extremely impressed with the GFS for sniffing out the -EPO block in the extreme LR; it started showing in almost a week ago out at like 336 hrs, and now it appears all the models have latched onto the concept. Overall, the GFS has done very well with pattern recognition this winter and seems much improved from days gone by.

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Good point...goes to show you that you don't necessarily need the classic -NAO/+PNA setup for big snows.

not to be an ass but i have been trying to hammer this point for some time, and also that a persistent -NAO is not a good thing... You need the ebb and tide cyclic nature of the block and the events take place at the bookend temporal intervals.

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