Summer 2011

[Mikehobbyst]

Do you see Summer 2011 being hot again like 2010 or very pleasant temperatures for the LI and NYC area, more like 2009 temps without so much gloom and rain?

[csnavywx]

Do you see Summer 2011 being hot again like 2010 or very pleasant temperatures for the LI and NYC area, more like 2009 temps without so much gloom and rain?

I can't speak for that area specifically, but a piece of research (not yet published) I was a part of over the past few months suggests that - spatially across the Midwest and East - May-Sept temperatures have a significantly higher than normal chance of being at or below normal (leaning below normal).

Note that this is only in relation to temps, and not precip.

[JBG]

I can't speak for that area specifically, but a piece of research (not yet published) I was a part of over the past few months suggests that - spatially across the Midwest and East - May-Sept temperatures have a significantly higher than normal chance of being at or below normal (leaning below normal).

Note that this is only in relation to temps, and not precip.

Is this because it's a second year La Niña, like 1974 or 2000?

Or perhaps do 1954 and 1955 give grounds for optimism? Even 1971 and 1989 were normal, not sub-normal, but unfortunately not torchy either.

[ArtRosen]

I can't speak for that area specifically, but a piece of research (not yet published) I was a part of over the past few months suggests that - spatially across the Midwest and East - May-Sept temperatures have a significantly higher than normal chance of being at or below normal (leaning below normal).

Note that this is only in relation to temps, and not precip.

I've been hearing a lot of the same - that this is going to be a cool summer. Aren't dying La Nina summers usually below average any way?

[SnowGoose69]

If you just use 1974, 1989, and 1999 which would have been the last 3 summers which followed Mod/Strong La Ninas and also came after El Ninos the winter before you get a composite of mild temps in the northern part of the US with below normal across the TN Valley, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast...the problem is 74 which was very cold in those regions skews it, just using 89 and 99 you still see mild areas over the Canadian border as well as NE/MA regions....1989 and 1974 were quite wet in the East while 1999 was insanely dry.

[Rib]

Yeah I remember 2000. That was basically like an extended Spring.

[JBG]

If you just use 1974, 1989, and 1999 which would have been the last 3 summers which followed Mod/Strong La Ninas and also came after El Ninos the winter before you get a composite of mild temps in the northern part of the US with below normal across the TN Valley, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast...the problem is 74 which was very cold in those regions skews it, just using 89 and 99 you still see mild areas over the Canadian border as well as NE/MA regions....1989 and 1974 were quite wet in the East while 1999 was insanely dry.

The trouble with that analysis is that for all intents and purposes 1999 acted as a first La Niña summer, in terms of being both insanely hot and dry, and 1998 was bland.

I would look back to "cold-phase" second La Niña summers such as 1954, 1955, 1956, 1971, 1974 and 2008. When those are "composited" how do those look?

I don't think "warm phase" La Niñas such as 1989 and 2000 are relevant since the La Niña was being kicked to a speedier than normal death by the overall warm-phase environment?

[ArtRosen]

If you just use 1974, 1989, and 1999 which would have been the last 3 summers which followed Mod/Strong La Ninas and also came after El Ninos the winter before you get a composite of mild temps in the northern part of the US with below normal across the TN Valley, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast...the problem is 74 which was very cold in those regions skews it, just using 89 and 99 you still see mild areas over the Canadian border as well as NE/MA regions....1989 and 1974 were quite wet in the East while 1999 was insanely dry.

Do you expect an El Nino to develop this winter?

[SnowGoose69]

Do you expect an El Nino to develop this winter?

Most of the climate models last I saw a few weeks back agreed on a very weak El Nino heading into next winter or at the very least being on the Nino side of neutral near 0.2-0.3....I would not discount seeing another Nina winter though...many of the climate models at this point in early 1999 were indicating a Nino for the 99-00 winter and we know how that turned out.....of course I'm sure the accuracy of most of the ENSO models has improved significantly in 11 years.

[JBG]

Do you expect an El Nino to develop this winter?

Most of the climate models last I saw a few weeks back agreed on a very weak El Nino heading into next winter or at the very least being on the Nino side of neutral near 0.2-0.3....I would not discount seeing another Nina winter though...many of the climate models at this point in early 1999 were indicating a Nino for the 99-00 winter and we know how that turned out.....of course I'm sure the accuracy of most of the ENSO models has improved significantly in 11 years.

I don't see why more aren't going for a multi-year Niña event besides wish-casting.

[A-L-E-X]

If you just use 1974, 1989, and 1999 which would have been the last 3 summers which followed Mod/Strong La Ninas and also came after El Ninos the winter before you get a composite of mild temps in the northern part of the US with below normal across the TN Valley, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast...the problem is 74 which was very cold in those regions skews it, just using 89 and 99 you still see mild areas over the Canadian border as well as NE/MA regions....1989 and 1974 were quite wet in the East while 1999 was insanely dry.

Were all those strong la ninas? I think this is a different case, because when you look at weak la ninas that come after el ninos they produce awesome winters around here. Maybe the fact that its a moderate la nina coupled with a strong neg ao and nao is actually making it seem more like an el nino winter.

[csnavywx]

Is this because it's a second year La Niña, like 1974 or 2000?

Or perhaps do 1954 and 1955 give grounds for optimism? Even 1971 and 1989 were normal, not sub-normal, but unfortunately not torchy either.

My piece of research actually has to do with ENSO trends the summer before, and used the full 1950-onward ENSO data set, analyzed statistically. Without going into too much detail, summers that show a strong drop (strong rise) in SSTs have a strong tendency to see temps below the median (above the median) the following warm season.

[JBG]

My piece of research actually has to do with ENSO trends the summer before, and used the full 1950-onward ENSO data set, analyzed statistically. Without going into too much detail, summers that show a strong drop (strong rise) in SSTs have a strong tendency to see temps below the median (above the median) the following warm season.

How does pre-1950 daa play in? As we see from this winter post-1950 Niñas aren't working well as analogs. This winter is nothing like the early 1950's Niña winters or, fortunately for that matter 1973-4, 1974-5, 1975-6, 1988-9, 1998-9 or (less relevantly) 1999-2000 or 2007-8.

[VAwxman]

This winter is nothing like the early 1950's Niña winters

Huh?

Yes the NAO block is more dominant this year, but from a global perspective, you don't often get matches that are as close as what these are. Those two years diverged a good deal in Jan, but at least for now, the 50s ninas have been pretty close as far as the hemispheric pattern is concerned.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks Brian. Id like to see some results from years like 1909-10 and 1916-17 also, which have also been mentioned in relation to this winter. 1955-56 always seemed to be a strong analog to this winter, which is why many have thought winter will end with a bang lol.

[JBG]

Huh?

My point is that the winters of the 1950's through March 1956 really stank. I took the trouble of going on the New York Times site to read the coverage of the March 19-20 storm and found that the newspaper was saying that it marked the end of a six year almost snowless period.

[tacoman25]

My point is that the winters of the 1950's through March 1956 really stank. I took the trouble of going on the New York Times site to read the coverage of the March 19-20 storm and found that the newspaper was saying that it marked the end of a six year almost snowless period.

Again, it's the difference between just looking in your backyard, or using a larger scale.

[JBG]

Again, it's the difference between just looking in your backyard, or using a larger scale.

So returning to the thread topic, if you're right, could this summer be more like the "repeat La Niña summers" of 1954 and 1955 then like such washouts or near-washouts as 1971, 1989 and 2000?

[hurricaneman]

With the summer of 99, its started out very torchy in the northeast and from about mid July to the end of summer was a little bit under the average if I remember right

[JBG]

With the summer of 99, its started out very torchy in the northeast and from about mid July to the end of summer was a little bit under the average if I remember right

Actually the last torch ended around August 2 or so and then it was about average. We had winter torching in December 1999 and first half of January 2000. The summer of 2000 was more like mid-spring; nasty, cold and wet.

I am hoping that analog doesn't prove out, since I believe we're at the point of cold phase that we were in the early to mid 1950's, when we had four (4) hot summers in a row, 1952 through 1955. The first three had temps over 100 whereas 1955 was more like 1999 and 2010.

[A-L-E-X]

Actually the last torch ended around August 2 or so and then it was about average. We had winter torching in December 1999 and first half of January 2000. The summer of 2000 was more like mid-spring; nasty, cold and wet.

I am hoping that analog doesn't prove out, since I believe we're at the point of cold phase that we were in the early to mid 1950's, when we had four (4) hot summers in a row, 1952 through 1955. The first three had temps over 100 whereas 1955 was more like 1999 and 2010.

2010 had three days out of four over 100 degrees. It was more like 1966 than 1955 or 1999.

[JBG]

2010 had three days out of four over 100 degrees. It was more like 1966 than 1955 or 1999.

What I am more curious about is your view looking towards the future.

I am not a pro-met. Am I on board, though, with my "1950's" analogy? My problem with 1966 is that is was not really a Niña bit a neutral-negative. 1955, 1999 and 2010 were all quite muscular Niñas. no? And 1967 is not a summer most would like to see again unless you liked 2000.

[Jebman]

Summer 2010 was HELL HOT in the East.

I hope Summer 2011 is Little Ice Age COLD for VA.