blackjack123 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I dont know what SPC's thinking was yesterday but why wasnt there not at least a 10%(high-slight risk) hatched area if not 15%(moderate risk) hatched area for strong tornadoes. I dont know of very many forecasts that have overperformed like December 31, 2010 except for maybe January 7, 2008, June 17, 2010, and maybe the more recent November 29, 2010 tornado outbreak. There may have been some well into the past but over the past 7 or 8 years I have been studying tornadoes I have rarely if never seen this happen with only a 5% tornado forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I dont know what SPC's thinking was yesterday but why wasnt there not at least a 10%(high-slight risk) hatched area if not 15%(moderate risk) hatched area for strong tornadoes. I dont know of very many forecasts that have overperformed like December 31, 2010 except for maybe January 7, 2008, June 17, 2010, and maybe the more recent November 29, 2010 tornado outbreak. There may have been some well into the past but over the past 7 or 8 years I have been studying tornadoes I have rarely if never seen this happen with only a 5% tornado forecast. 4/20/04...if anyone can beat that in terms of overperforming, I'd like to see it. There wasn't even a 2% tornado area on the last outlook before things went nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I guess this will reignite the debate about SPC probability forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 I guess this will reignite the debate about SPC probability forecasts... Yeah If my memory is correct I believe also May 12, 2004 and July 18, 2004 overperformed as well. I dont believe there was many tornadoes on these dates but two of these tornadoes Harper, Kansas and Barnes County, North Dakota may have done F5 damage although they were officially rated high-end F4. The Harper tornado happened on a 5% tornado day while the Barnes County, North Dakota tornado happened on a 0-2% chance for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I guess this will reignite the debate about SPC probability forecasts... Wish we still had that thread to point to in cases like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I dont know what SPC's thinking was yesterday but why wasnt there not at least a 10%(high-slight risk) hatched area if not 15%(moderate risk) hatched area for strong tornadoes. I dont know of very many forecasts that have overperformed like December 31, 2010 except for maybe January 7, 2008, June 17, 2010, and maybe the more recent November 29, 2010 tornado outbreak. There may have been some well into the past but over the past 7 or 8 years I have been studying tornadoes I have rarely if never seen this happen with only a 5% tornado forecast. January 7th 2008 was only a 5%, but there were no deaths or maybe 1 and June 17th 2010 was only a 10% hatched, that day could have been a legit high risk event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anybody who kept track of the severe weather event with this last system knew Arkansas/Louisiana had a possibility of seeing severe weather. The models also shown multiple times high dews going up into Missouri and even the lower half of Illinois. Some of the dynamics were there, so a decent percentage hatch should have been marked down as a threat. I think some folks, especially in Missouri, were caught of guard because this threat hadn't been advertised very well. Anybody think that maybe an out of season watch/warning system should be put into place? A Watch/Warning system specifically for Out of Season Severe Weather or Tornado Threats during the Winter Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 There's already enough confusion on the part of the public, setting up additional warning caveats would probably just add to the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Anybody who kept track of the severe weather event with this last system knew Arkansas/Louisiana had a possibility of seeing severe weather. The models also shown multiple times high dews going up into Missouri and even the lower half of Illinois. Some of the dynamics were there, so a decent percentage hatch should have been marked down as a threat. I think some folks, especially in Missouri, were caught of guard because this threat hadn't been advertised very well. Anybody think that maybe an out of season watch/warning system should be put into place? A Watch/Warning system specifically for Out of Season Severe Weather or Tornado Threats during the Winter Season. Speaking from a an emergency management perspective, I understand the need of making the public aware of a potential severe event. I've come to the point of believing that there are many (most?) people who don't pay any attention to the weather, and especially a potential wintertime severe event. About the only thing that would get some people's attention would be a swift kick to the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 4/20/04...if anyone can beat that in terms of overperforming, I'd like to see it. There wasn't even a 2% tornado area on the last outlook before things went nuts. I thought there was a 2-5% chance for parts of Kansas and a big part of Missouri but did not include Illinois where the main outbreak happened. Like you said there was not even a 2% area for Illinois.but thought they kept a 2-5% risk for parts of Kansas and Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I thought there was a 2-5% chance for parts of Kansas and a big part of Missouri but did not include Illinois where the main outbreak happened. Like you said there was not even a 2% area for Illinois.but thought they kept a 2-5% risk for parts of Kansas and Missouri. Here's the 20z outlook from that day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Speaking from a an emergency management perspective, I understand the need of making the public aware of a potential severe event. I've come to the point of believing that there are many (most?) people who don't pay any attention to the weather, and especially a potential wintertime severe event. About the only thing that would get some people's attention would be a swift kick to the head. I think you are so correct about people not paying attention to the weather. We had an incident this summer where we directly warned an organizer of an outdoor event than an impending squall line with 40+ MPH winds were 20-30 minutes out. All they saw was sunshine and turned a blind eye. Luckily all that happened was people got wet and their stuff blew away. It could have been much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think you are so correct about people not paying attention to the weather. We had an incident this summer where we directly warned an organizer of an outdoor event than an impending squall line with 40+ MPH winds were 20-30 minutes out. All they saw was sunshine and turned a blind eye. Luckily all that happened was people got wet and their stuff blew away. It could have been much worse. 40+ mph is all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I dont know what SPC's thinking was yesterday but why wasnt there not at least a 10%(high-slight risk) hatched area if not 15%(moderate risk) hatched area for strong tornadoes. I dont know of very many forecasts that have overperformed like December 31, 2010 except for maybe January 7, 2008, June 17, 2010, and maybe the more recent November 29, 2010 tornado outbreak. There may have been some well into the past but over the past 7 or 8 years I have been studying tornadoes I have rarely if never seen this happen with only a 5% tornado forecast. SPC underestimated the event from the beginning, which is fine, but they should have at least beefed things up after the event was underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 From one extreme to another in this region. Cold cold cold - tornadoes - back to cold. Got to love it. This last event really drives home the point that you have to keep up on these events from one day to the next. I think most NWS offices were caught a bit off-guard by the event. It seems like everyone expected "some" severe weather but not to the extent that we ended up having. Another example of how these winter events can over-achieve. Wind fields were impressive. Unfortunate to see the high death toll. I am sure people were caught off guard because of the holiday and time of year. Could have been worse. SPC underestimated the event from the beginning, which is fine, but they should have at least beefed things up after the event was underway. 100% agree with both of these posts. I want to add that most, if not all, forecasters underestimated this system. It wasn't until I got a good look at the weather the morning of that I was able to see the potential with this system, and I imagine many others had the same experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 From one extreme to another in this region. Cold cold cold - tornadoes - back to cold. Got to love it. This last event really drives home the point that you have to keep up on these events from one day to the next. I think most NWS offices were caught a bit off-guard by the event. It seems like everyone expected "some" severe weather but not to the extent that we ended up having. Another example of how these winter events can over-achieve. Wind fields were impressive. Unfortunate to see the high death toll. I am sure people were caught off guard because of the holiday and time of year. Could have been worse. I kind of was wondering if it had to do with the temperatures, dewpoints, and CAPE. Temperaturs were only about 60-65 degrees, dewpoints in the mid 50s, and CAPE at about 1000-1500J/KG. The thing is insane wind shear can make for those lack of ingredients. While temperatures, dewpoints, and CAPE were not that high, for this time of year that can be pretty significant. Even the tornado watches for where the killer tornadoes happened were low prob, and I would have thought at least a 10% hatched area would have been warranted. I mean we had multiple EF3 tornadoes the other day and that was just as many as some moderate/high risk days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 100% agree with both of these posts. I want to add that most, if not all, forecasters underestimated this system. It wasn't until I got a good look at the weather the morning of that I was able to see the potential with this system, and I imagine many others had the same experience. Guess everyone (including the SPC) should have been listening to northpittweather right from the get go, lol. Well i have been seeing this storm on the models for several days while i was watching the possible east coast storm This storm looks like a classic spring time system, this storm seems like it could pump warm moist air the whole way up to the lakes, so this could be a possible severe weather maker in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and possibly southern lakes Could be like the storm system that produced tornadoes in early January a few years back in 2008 Severe Weather in West Texas, where no cape is present, when this upper air system comes into Dixie Alley, looks like Armageddon tomorrow This could be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Something was definitely up with SPC on Friday. The entire event was obviously underestimated. To make matters worse, the 8PM ET SPC update placed a slight risk all the way up to Northern Kentucky. Most of the energy was long gone up there once the storms blew through STL and into Western IL and the storms really got its act together down in MS. But SPC had portions of WV in a 2% tornado threat and not even in a slight risk area. Very strange I think. This certainly won't be the last storm that is underestimated by SPC and other forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I agree with SPC going with 5% tor probs with the first day 1 outlook for this past event but once we started seeing reports of sig tornadoes I dont understand why they didn't upgrade to a 10% hatched outlook later on in the day. There was lots of shear to work as the wind fields were very impressive with extreme amounts of 0-3km CAPE and colder air aloft moving in from the west associated with the ULL and these storms being closer to the sfc low. Some of the storms in MO/AR didn't have much instability to work with above that. I think both MLCAPE and SBCAPE were both under 500 at the time of the morning tornadoes across the northern area. I got the chance to talk to Roger Edwards last year at our COD symposium about SPC busting on moderate risks in the spring/summer months the past few years and also the big high risk bust on 4/26/09...he said that some of the forecasters "see lots of shear and get scared" and the mesoscale won't out play out right and the risks dont end up verifying. So I would be curious to hear there thinking behind this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here is something for those who might be interested. It seems like one of those extremely powerful tornadoes that are forgotten and fortunately this tornado was not deadly or injurous. There was only a 2% area for tornadoes when this F4 happened. Here is a study done by NWS offices. www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fgf/casestudy/BarnesF4_20040718.pdf Here are some of the damage photos associated with this tornado. This tornado did high-end F4 damage(borderline F5) to some structures. One home waas completely levelled off the foundation and swept away. www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/severe/jul18_tor/jul18_tor.php Here is the final outlook of that day. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040718_2000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.