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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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I agree that there needs to be some kind of standardization across the board, though I don't know how you'd do it, as it would still be subjective. But it's gotten out of hand somewhat in recent years. You have minor storms (relatively speaking) such as Igor and Paloma retired, while more serious storms (in my opinion) like Alex, Karl and Hanna still remain on the list. Does it really matter? No, but it does look kind of silly having Igor on a list of retired names next to truly horrific storms like Katrina or Andrew or Mitch, etc.

Agreed. I don't think it's a super-big deal, but I think it does matter if a future Alex or Karl once again makes news, and then you've got two important Alexes or Karls to deal with in historic discussions. That can get just a bit messy.

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JD and JB announce new hurricane rating system:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=6

Plenty to discuss there.

Me, personally, I'd go with a simplified/no integration version of the integrated kinetic energy, summing up max winds time radius of max winds, and then something like winds over 64 knots times radius, winds over 50 knots times radius and winds over 34 knots time radius. Or maybe area between the radius lines. Go SI, meters cubed per second, divided by some kind of constant so the numbers are reasonable, say between 0 and 1,000. Could have instantaneous values based on 6 hour NHC updates, could sum up all the 6 hour numbers and divide by another number for something like ACE to produce a relevant and convenient scale, could go back and use best track/post season analysis to tweak the numbers. Pinpoint precise? of course not, but better than just max winds. The SS scale has its use, IMHO, estimating wind damage near landfall.

JB is married to pressure I think because low pressure has a correlation to surge, a low pressure but spread out gradient storm has winds over a larger area, even if weaker, and produces surge. Fine, all well and good.

But the Ed system would also take into account wind field size, and would produce a number that isn't easily confused by the general public for some kind of Saffir-Simpson scale.

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The whole pressure + winds thing is pretty stupid, imo. There are better metrics available to get across the message, if you think it needs to be changed. Personally, I don't. The hurricane center does a fine job explicitly stating the risks involved with any particular cyclone.

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I know Ike's storm surge was well predicted ahead of time as being rather susbstantial for a 95 knot storm.

I guess one should actually square wind speeds in the Ed system before multiplying them by the area between the radiius, but since nobody would use it anyway, no biggie.

Seeing talk on the local KHOU forum of a better than earlier expected chance of an El Neenyo and a blah October, but that is too far away to worry about too much yet, 2004 shows weak to moderate warm ENSOs aren't always fatal, and if its October, excluding 1949 and Barelycane Jerry in 1989, the Equinox ends the season locally anyway.

Of course, the Equinox does not end the season for the Northeast. Meridional troughs, in the Ohio Valley, with a hint of a negative tilt. Yowza. This will be especially important to me if the NFL lockout is still continuing.

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Mad Cheese posted this on the ENSO thread yesterday. Boy, if we have a 1997 again, well, the suckitude would be impressive. Would Josh chase a Cat 1 to Port Sulphur, Louisiana as the highlight of his season?

Don't encourage the season cancel/this season is a bust posts. Thanks...

post-32-0-53424800-1300802875.gif

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Nicaragua FTW?

seasonal_charts_rain!rain!ensemble%20mean!3%20months!Tropics!201103!chart.gif

That looks Nina-ish with surpressed tracks. Unless the Nino is so strong its season cancel, but its March, and Steve is right, season cancel in March, its premature. I like Steve's better, I can imagine multiple landfalls in Florida off his ECMWF guess map.

Edit to add- just noticed its not the same 3 months. High rainfall and higher than normal MSLP for Central America, it'd be hard to picture at the same time.

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That looks Nina-ish with surpressed tracks. Unless the Nino is so strong its season cancel, but its March, and Steve is right, season cancel in March, its premature. I like Steve's better, I can imagine multiple landfalls in Florida off his ECMWF guess map.

Edit to add- just noticed its not the same 3 months. High rainfall and higher than normal MSLP for Central America, it'd be hard to picture at the same time.

That's not the only difference, they are two different models (ECMWF vs EuroSIP). This would compare better to Steve's map:

seasonal_charts_public_rain%21rain%214%20months%21Tropics%21201103%21tercile%20summary%21chart.gif

The EuroSIP is more aggressive with the Niña demise, while the ECMWF slowly rises but stays on the colder than average side.

nino_plumes_public_s3%213.4%21201103%21chart.gif

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I'd sacrifice children to get another 1997 like supernino. The pacific that year was the most awesome stuff ever.

I actually do feel sorry for people making $3 a day in the Philippines, and granted, its the Mid-Atlantic of Japan, where the tsunami hit, but I wouldn't be completely honest if I said that is why a not well expected Nino comes in and craps on the Atlantic season after July is not something I want.

I really do appreciate satellite imagery of well formed tropical cyclones, but I also like U-Tube footage of people in Hurricane Charley's eyewall. I got jealous watching that snippet of the Josh video where you could see the lightness in the distant sky that was the actual eye.

2005, I know, too many tropical storms to count, but Katrina, buzzkill sounds shallow, but if we'd had Rita and Wilma and Dennis, and no Katrina, I think that would have been the gold standard.

To me, 2004 is the year I want to relive.

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<br /><br />

<br />

<br />

I actually do feel sorry for people making $3 a day in the Philippines, and granted, its the Mid-Atlantic of Japan, where the tsunami hit, but I wouldn't be completely honest if I said that is why a not well expected Nino comes in and craps on the Atlantic season after July is not something I want.<br />

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<br />

I really do appreciate satellite imagery of well formed tropical cyclones, but I also like U-Tube footage of people in Hurricane Charley's eyewall. I got jealous watching that snippet of the Josh video where you could see the lightness in the distant sky that was the actual eye.<br />

<br />

2005, I know, too many tropical storms to count, but Katrina, buzzkill sounds shallow, but if we'd had Rita and Wilma and Dennis, and no Katrina, I think that would have been the gold standard.<br />

<br />

To me, 2004 is the year I want to relive.<br />

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2004 would be okay but I really think atlantic activity just brings in idiot weenies, which is why I have been so pro-pacific recently. As long as commiecane gets his I could care less about getting landfalling Atlantic storms.

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That's not the only difference, they are two different models (ECMWF vs EuroSIP). This would compare better to Steve's map:

The EuroSIP is more aggressive with the Niña demise, while the ECMWF slowly rises but stays on the colder than average side.

nino_plumes_public_s3%213.4%21201103%21chart.gif

I sure like a 2008 analog. Could be another interesting season. Who knows? Josh may well have multiple intercept opportunities this year.

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