Atlantic Tropical Action 2011

[wxmx]

I am most surprised about Karl's staying and Igor's going.

Clearly, our "I" names have been retired a lot lately. Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike and now Igor. That means only Isaac, Ingrid, and Ida have survived this last rotation.

Had Alex and Karl exchanged LF points, the damage from Alex would have been a lot worse than Karl's in SE MX. Karl was a compact storm, with relatively little wind affectation, it was mostly added stress to an already bad flooding situation there. Alex's precipitation shield was a lot larger. The La Pesca area has seen a lot worse than Karl (Anita, Gilbert, Emily), but since it's a scarcely populated area, usually damages (lives and economic wise) are rather minimal...unless it affects larger population areas to the west (ie. Monterrey), like Gilbert and Alex did (Emily to a lesser extent).

[rainstorm]

JB and JD are coming out with their forecast soon. lower numbers but more action.

[rainstorm]

stormtopia forecast coming:

[bluewave]

Wunderground added a really cool hurricane archive with old newspaper articles,NOAA/ NHC reports,and some great old satellite loops.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp

Here's the Hurricane Gloria long loop:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19857.asp?feature=hurricanemovie

[battlebrick]

LOL AGATHA WASN'T RETIRED.

Like seriously, why?

[HurricaneJosh]

Igor and Tomas were both retired - no big surprise there.

Huh? Igor is an enormous surprise to me.

I mean, why on earth was it retired? Because it was big? Because it produced hurricane winds on land? I'm just trying to think of a reason-- any reason.

[OSUmetstud]

Huh? Igor is an enormous surprise to me.

I mean, why on earth was it retired? Because it was big? Because it produced hurricane winds on land? I'm just trying to think of a reason-- any reason.

I think it was the Canadians...we wouldn't have retired that, I think. It was the costliest hurricane in Newfoundland history.

[HurricaneJosh]

I think it was the Canadians...we wouldn't have retired that, I think. It was the costliest hurricane in Newfoundland history.

And two years ago we had the heaviest snow in L.A. history-- a trace up in Malibu.

There should be some standardization to this process. It is ridiculous that two very damaging hurricanes in MX weren't retired and that silly, extratropical pussycane in the sparsely-populated region N of the Canadian Maritimes was. C'mon.

[HurricaneJosh]

Even Tomas was kind of borderline for me.

[OSUmetstud]

And two years ago we had the heaviest snow in L.A. history-- a trace up in Malibu.

There should be some standardization to this process. It is ridiculous that two very damaging hurricanes in MX weren't retired and that silly, extratropical pussycane in the sparsely-populated region N of the Canadian Maritimes was. C'mon.

It's all up to the affected country. Usually they petition for a storm to be retired and it is done.

[HurricaneJosh]

It's all up to the affected country. Usually they petition for a storm to be retired and it is done.

I get that part. But there still needs to be some standardization to the approval process, in my opinion-- or else you have silly situations like these where a comparative non-event gets retired because it was a big IMBY thing for five people. I'm sorry, but retiring a name because of $200 million damage on a sparsely-populated island is setting the bar really low. If every country did that, we'd be out of names by now.

[OSUmetstud]

On September 20, roughly one day prior to Igor's arrival in Atlantic Canada, the Canadian Hurricane Center (CHC) issued tropical storm watches and warnings for southern Newfoundlandand the French territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon. On September 21, the CHC issued a hurricane watch for the eastern and northern coasts. Early the next day, all advisories were discontinued as Igor moved away from the region.^[2] In response to the storm's arrival, schools were closed and several flights were delayed or canceled at St. John's International Airport.^[22]Offshore, an oil rig with 110 personnel was mostly evacuated near the coast of Newfoundland on September 19.^[23] In comparison to Hurricane Earl two weeks earlier, there was substantially less media attention given to Igor, attributed to the possibility of it going out to sea.^[24]

Throughout much of eastern Newfoundland, Hurricane Igor produced torrential rainfall, estimated over 10 in (250 mm) in Bonavista,^{[nb 1]} resulting in widespread flooding. In St. Lawrence, a confirmed 9.37 in (238 mm) of rain fell,^[2] ranking Igor as the third-wettest tropical cyclone in the island's history.^[25] In Cape Pine, near where the center of Igor tracked, sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and gusts to 107 mph (172 km/h) battered the area. Along the coast, Igor produced astorm tide of 3.5 ft (1.1 m).^[2] Additionally, offshore waves reached immense heights, measured up to 83.6 ft (25.5 m); one bouy reported a wave of 92 ft (28 m) but data is subject to further analysis to verify it.^[24]

The main impacts from Igor were attributed to torrential rains, leading to excessive runoff and flash flooding. Several rivers rose to record levels across the Bonavista and Burin Peninsulas where many roads were washed out. Entire bridges, homes and portions of roads were destroyed.^[24] In some instances, flood waters were higher than entire homes.^[22] Roughly 150 communities were temporarily isolated as all roads leading to them were severely damaged or washed out.^[24] Overall damage to roadways was regarded as "colossal" by Tom Hedderson, the minister for emergency preparedness.^[26] A 100 ft (30 m) section of the Trans-Canada Highway in Terra Nova National Park was severely eroded, leaving a large ravine behind and disconnecting the main population – roughly 20,000 people^[22] – of Newfoundland from the rest of the island.^[24] Public infrastructure losses were estimated in excess of $100 million, mainly attributed to roadways.^[27] On Random Island, a man was swept out to sea after his driveway collapsed from flooding; he was later confirmed dead. During the storm, portions of Clarenville had to be evacuated.^[22]

In addition to flood damage, hurricane-force winds felled trees and power lines over large areas and many homes were damaged to varying degrees.^[24] An estimated 50,000 residences were left without electricity in the region.^[28][29] The small coastal community of South East Bight sustained some of the most significant wind damage where entire fishing sheds were hurled into the air.^[30] Along the East Coast hiking trail, an estimated 5,000 trees were felled.^[31] In all, losses from the hurricane were placed at $200 million, ranking it as the costliest cyclone in Newfoundland history.^[2]

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't meant to be dismissive, but c'mon-- what in that article makes this such a big deal? It's a standard tropical-cyclone impact: heavy rain, strong winds, and some downed trees. Sorry, I'm just not getting it.

P.S. I'm not dismissing Canadian 'canes. I could see the case for Juan 2003, since it heavily impacted a large town in that region (Halifax)-- although even that was not exactly a huge disaster.

[OSUmetstud]

I don't meant to be dismissive, but c'mon-- what in that article makes this such a big deal? It's a standard tropical-cyclone impact: heavy rain, strong winds, and some downed trees. Sorry, I'm just not getting it.

P.S. I'm not dismissing Canadian 'canes. I could see the case for Juan 2003, since it heavily impacted a large town in that region (Halifax)-- although even that was not exactly a huge disaster.

Retirement has never really been about intensity....it's always going to have some subjective elements due to countries involved. We have numerous retirements due to flooding rains...Alison, for example.

[HurricaneJosh]

Retirement has never really been about intensity....it's always going to have some subjective elements due to countries involved. We have numerous retirements due to flooding rains...Alison, for example.

Of course I know it's not about intensity. Otherwise, names like Agnes and Diane never would have been retired.

Again, what in that article stands out to you? Downed trees, school closures, and air-traffic delays?

[OSUmetstud]

Of course I know it's not about intensity. Otherwise, names like Agnes and Diane never would have been retired.

Again, what in that article stands out to you? Downed trees, school closures, and air-traffic delays?

the guy getting swept out to sea

the floodwaters higher than homes

An entire area of 20,000 being isolated due to the loss of a connecting road

There's probably a relative thing here, since Canada doesn't get with too many nasty hurricanes and this happened to be one of the worst they've ever been hit with.

(Mexico might not be as so passionate about retiring a cat 3 in a relatively isolated area since they've been hit with numerous 4s and 5s while Canada has not)

I predicted this reaction from you when I saw that Igor had been retired.

[HurricaneJosh]

the guy getting swept out to sea

the floodwaters higher than homes

An entire area of 20,000 being isolated due to the loss of a connecting road

There's probably a relative thing here, since Canada doesn't get with too many nasty hurricanes and this happened to be one of the worst they've ever been hit with.

(Mexico might not be as so passionate about retiring a cat 3 in a relatively isolated area since they've been hit with numerous 4s and 5s while Canada has not)

I predicted this reaction from you when I saw that Igor had been retired.

Alex and Karl both had major impact on population centers:

* Alex made landfall in a sparsely-populated area, but the floods in Monterrey-- a huge city-- were devastating.

* Karl's SE eyewall passed right over Veracruz-- another major population center-- and the city was heavily impacted. It wasn't "devastated", but it took a beating.

I don't mean to sound insensitive, but it seems silly to me to retire a name because a guy got swept out to sea and some homes were flooded/isolated. There are deaths and flooding every single time a tropical cyclone interacts with land.

You predicted my reaction because it's the only logical one to this situation. I know you're just playing devil'd advocate here-- and that you don't really think a cyclone name should be retired for such reasons.

[OSUmetstud]

Alex and Karl both had major impact on population centers:

* Alex made landfall in a sparsely-populated area, but the floods in Monterrey-- a huge city-- were devastating.

* Karl's SE eyewall passed right over Veracruz-- another major population center-- and the city was heavily impacted. It wasn't "devastated", but it took a beating.

I don't mean to sound insensitive, but it seems silly to me to retire a name because a guy got swept out to sea and some homes were flooded/isolated. There are deaths and flooding every single time a tropical cyclone interacts with land.

You predicted my reaction because it's the only logical one to this situation. I know you're just playing devil'd advocate here-- and that you don't really think a cyclone should be retired for such reasons.

Perhaps it's really an issue with Mexico's representative at the WMO Hurricane Committee not pushing for those retirements. I don't really have a strong opinion either way. There isn't a standardized process, so I am resigned to the fact there were will be subjectivity and inconsistencies.

[OSUmetstud]

btw, I predicted your reaction since this was an IP hurricane, and lackluster intensity wise even by those standards.

[HurricaneJosh]

Perhaps it's really an issue with Mexico's representative at the WMO Hurricane Committee not pushing for those retirements. I don't really have a strong opinion either way. There isn't a standardized process, so I am resigned to the fact there were will be subjectivity and inconsistencies.

It's not the end of the world-- there are bigger issues to debate-- I just think it's silly.

And Mexico's rep should step up to the plate-- there've been a few over the last ten years that really should have been retired-- like Emily 2005.

[HurricaneJosh]

btw, I predicted your reaction since this was an IP hurricane, and lackluster intensity wise even by those standards.

OK, maybe there is a grain of truth in that.

[eyewall]

I had a tease with Earl last year on the OBX. I am looking for my first real cane experience this year where I get a true eyewall and perhaps even an eye.

[HurricaneJosh]

I had a tease with Earl last year on the OBX. I am looking for my first real cane experience this year where I get a true eyewall and perhaps even an eye.

OBX is a total c*cktease location, though, as you're bound to get a lot of near misses and left eyewalls of transitioning cyclones.

[k***]

OBX is a total c*cktease location, though, as you're bound to get a lot of near misses and left eyewalls of transitioning cyclones.

Harsh but true.

[MJW155]

I hope this is finally the year I get a storm since moving down here in 2008.

I went for a hike last weekend up by Lake Okeechobee. There are parts of the dike around the southern end of the lake that are still damaged by Hurricane Wilma. Part of the Florida Trail is closed in that area even though it's more of a suggestion not to use the trail for hikers.

[flwxwatcher45]

I hope this is finally the year I get a storm since moving down here in 2008.

I went for a hike last weekend up by Lake Okeechobee. There are parts of the dike around the southern end of the lake that are still damaged by Hurricane Wilma. Part of the Florida Trail is closed in that area even though it's more of a suggestion not to use the trail for hikers.

You mean the fury of Bonnie last year didn't satisfy you?

I know what you mean. It's been calm for me here in Polk County since Charley, Frances and Jeanne came to visit in 2004.

[wxmx]

Alex and Igor main stories which affected population were the flooding...but they were two different beasts. Area, absolute intensity of the precipitation, population and economic affectations, Alex was at least an order of magnitude worse than Igor. IMHO, Igor shouldn't have been retired, while Alex should have.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I get that part. But there still needs to be some standardization to the approval process, in my opinion-- or else you have silly situations like these where a comparative non-event gets retired because it was a big IMBY thing for five people. I'm sorry, but retiring a name because of $200 million damage on a sparsely-populated island is setting the bar really low. If every country did that, we'd be out of names by now.

I agree that there needs to be some kind of standardization across the board, though I don't know how you'd do it, as it would still be subjective. But it's gotten out of hand somewhat in recent years. You have minor storms (relatively speaking) such as Igor and Paloma retired, while more serious storms (in my opinion) like Alex, Karl and Hanna still remain on the list. Does it really matter? No, but it does look kind of silly having Igor on a list of retired names next to truly horrific storms like Katrina or Andrew or Mitch, etc.

[Srain]

Report issued today by the CPC suggests neutral La Nina conditions for May/June/July. Interesting that they also suggest a possible return to El Nino conditions for the late summer/fall timeframe. Perhaps an early start and an early ending of Tropical Season? We will see...

•Nearly all models indicate that La Niña will weaken in the coming months.

•A majority of models and all three multi-model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011 (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ).

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

[Ed Lizard]

Report issued today by the CPC suggests neutral La Nina conditions for May/June/July. Interesting that they also suggest a possible return to El Nino conditions for the late summer/fall timeframe. Perhaps an early start and an early ending of Tropical Season? We will see...

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

Granted, limited knowledge base, but weak Nino's, ala 2004, don't kill a season.

About Canada and Igor, it is a UN agency, the WMO, and if Canada says they want it retired, who is going to propose a committee to study it and make a recommendation? About Haiti, I almost wonder if they might not be budget contrained and not attend all the WMO meetings. Too bad another "I" storm bites the dust, but Ian, besides being an admin, is descended from the same name Yochanon that 'Ivan' was, so the bloodlines are good.

Useless trivia, Evan, llike Sean, Ian, Ivan, John, Johannes, Johan, all variants of the same name, from the Apostle John/Yochanan in the Christian scriptures. (For Hugo)