Scorpion Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Florida is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I am completely glass half full on that. A mean trough axis near or just East of 95ºW would seem to imply boatloads of action possible from Louisiana to around Florida and up the East Coast. Eternal optimist. Klotzbach likes 61, 89, 99 and 08 as analogs. fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Klotzbach likes 61, 89, 99 and 08 as analogs. fwiw... All four years had Gulf hurricane landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 All four years had Gulf hurricane landfalls. 1989 was big for the Atlantic Southeast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 1989 was big for the Atlantic Southeast too Oh, yeah. Hugo was hawt. Didn't mean to discount that-- was just trying to find a common thread in the years Steve mentioned. P.S. I was thinking the other day that Hugo and Yasi are good inter-basin analogues-- big, strong Cat 4s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 1989 was big for the Atlantic Southeast too 89 was an interesting year. Who could forget that late season surprise microcane that will remain unmentioned just in case a crusty old Floridian is lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Klotzbach likes 61, 89, 99 and 08 as analogs. fwiw... That from December's CSU thing I should have read but didn't, or something newer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 That from December's CSU thing I should have read but didn't, or something newer? It was from December. Rumor has it he is still liking those analogs, though... http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/dec2010/dec2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Reading it now. I remember how much Gray used to like the QBO and rainfall in the sub-Sahara, and its all down to just 3 factors now, 1961 would threaten Hacienda Popo, ditto '08, but 89 and 99, we have no problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Not familiar with this Christopher Hebert, but a ranking system that sort of combines SS scale and size, and would make Srain happy by making Carla Queen of the Canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Not familiar with this Christopher Hebert, but a ranking system that sort of combines SS scale and size, and would make Srain happy by making Carla Queen of the Canes. Hebert Box FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Hebert Box FTW. Not the same Hebert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Not familiar with this Christopher Hebert, but a ranking system that sort of combines SS scale and size, and would make Srain happy by making Carla Queen of the Canes. Not to nitpick, but Table 3 is loaded with errors: Betsy is not considered a Cat 4 by anyone-- at least not yet. The Great Miami Hurricane was a Cat 4-- not a 3-- and the winds were much higher-- 125 kt. Audrey was not a Cat 4 at landfall-- everyone knows this now. Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Not to nitpick, but Table 3 is loaded with errors: Betsy is not considered a Cat 4 by anyone-- at least not yet. The Great Miami Hurricane was a Cat 4-- not a 3-- and the winds were much higher-- 125 kt. Audrey was not a Cat 4 at landfall-- everyone knows this now. Etc. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf I remember a then UM doctoral candidate named Ortt wrote on S2K that Audrey was a 1 or 2 at landfall, but the above still has it as a 4. Betsy is a 3 on this. Not sure where there are now as far as the reanlysis. If Audrey has been officially dropped below a 4, I'd be interested to know. As far as errors, I assume that wasn't submitted for peer review. Private sector petroleum engineers submit technical papers to the SPE's Journal of Petroleum Technology, and parers are peer reviewed before being published, and will occasionally get a vigorous back and forth in subsequent issues after publication in the letters to the editor. A lot of the science in Petroleum Engineering, like 'Archie's Law', were from oil company, not academic, engineers and scientists. Then there are non-peer reviewed magazines like 'Oil and Gas Journal', but people understand the articles are a form of advertising, in a way. O&GJ is a free subscription, JPT requires active SPE membership. I know there are peer reviewed met journals, having a generally good idea with a few technical errors, peer review would seem like a favor in this case. Oh, when I used to post/read Dr. Master's Wunderground hurricane forum, the Hebert box(es) were constantly referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf I remember a then UM doctoral candidate named Ortt wrote on S2K that Audrey was a 1 or 2 at landfall, but the above still has it as a 4. Betsy is a 3 on this. Not sure where there are now as far as the reanlysis. If Audrey has been officially dropped below a 4, I'd be interested to know. As far as errors, I assume that wasn't submitted for peer review. Private sector petroleum engineers submit technical papers to the SPE's Journal of Petroleum Technology, and parers are peer reviewed before being published, and will occasionally get a vigorous back and forth in subsequent issues after publication in the letters to the editor. A lot of the science in Petroleum Engineering, like 'Archie's Law', were from oil company, not academic, engineers and scientists. Then there are non-peer reviewed magazines like 'Oil and Gas Journal', but people understand the articles are a form of advertising, in a way. O&GJ is a free subscription, JPT requires active SPE membership. I know there are peer reviewed met journals, having a generally good idea with a few technical errors, peer review would seem like a favor in this case. Oh, when I used to post/read Dr. Master's Wunderground hurricane forum, the Hebert box(es) were constantly referenced. Hurricanes after 1930 are all undergoing reanalysis and many of them will be reassigned to new categories-- especially the ones before 1980. (We have a thread going about this.) So, even though that's an official NHC document, it's very out of date, and a lot of it will change. (The period 1851-1930 has already been reanalyzed, so those data are now considered accurate-- however, they're not reflected in that document, which is old.) Audrey is one that will get majorly demoted-- and people who follow reanalysis know this. Brian Jarvinen suggests it was only an 80-kt Cat 1. I think that might be a little on the harsh side, but I don't think it was any higher than a Cat 2, based on the pressure, huge wind radii, surge, and radar presentation. Audrey has been traditionally thought of as a Cat 4 because they used to assign intensity based on pressure, and the presumed landfall pressure was 945 mb-- on the Cat 3/4 cusp. (By the way, the landfall pressure wasn't that low, apparently. Analysis of reliable surface obs yields a much higher value-- ~955 mb.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 When looking at the 61 analog, there are some nice intercept correlations that would leave Josh salivating… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 When looking at the 61 analog, there are some nice intercept correlations that would leave Josh salivating… Yeah, Carla and Hattie FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 1961 was a very neat year, Anna was also a pretty good system that is often overlooked, so there were 3 very good landfalling systems that year...its 2nd personally behind 1964 for interesting systems, simply because of the sheer number of landfalling systems in that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If one only goes by the analogs used by CSU this year there will be plenty of recurving cyclones into the open atl. Steering currents out 2 weeks can't really trusted with any kind of accuracy so its anyones guess if the U.S. will see any signifcant threats this up coming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If one only goes by the analogs used by CSU this year there will be plenty of recurving cyclones into the open atl. Steering currents out 2 weeks can't really trusted with any kind of accuracy so its anyones guess if the U.S. will see any signifcant threats this up coming season. There are plenty of recurves and near misses even in the most active US landfall seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If this wasn't early March, I'd almost think the ensembles were hinting at something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll be a red tagger for this coming hurricane season. Prepare for my wrath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll be a red tagger for this coming hurricane season. Prepare for my wrath. That's not going to all of a sudden make you look less like an IP traitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The ever-active ITCZ is a sign of an impending upturn in the tropical cyclone period in the Atlantic Basin. Unlike the 2010 hurricane season, which has many weak systems and no real threats to the U.S., I suspect that a rather early, intense, and active tropical cyclone period is in store for the major islands and continental coastal points, starting in June. In the meantime, Brazil will be and the Orinoco River watershed the focal point of tremendous rains and severe weather." "This GOES EAST image is notable as it shows the continuation of excessive rainfall from thunderstorms across all of Brazil. But also see the huge tropical wave over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, which exhibits a circulation. This ITCZ impulse is part of a series of unusually well-developed convective disturbances with definable vorticity maxima. Should this type of feature continue to develop as the discontinuity drifts northward with the coming of spring and summer, the odds on an active and early tropical cyclone season over the Atlantic Basin will increase dramatically." by Larry Cosgrove Meteorologist sorry if to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Not the same Hebert. Please forgive my ignorance. That is a pretty cool coincidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Please forgive my ignorance. That is a pretty cool coincidence though. Hey, no problem. Just didn't want any confusion. Wiki has some interesting information on former NHC forecaster Paul Hebert... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Interesting from Larry, much depends on the state of the ENSO, neutral seasons can really go either way but a La Nina often tends to have a delayed start, 2010 in that respect was textbook Nina, as was obviously 98/99. Doesn't always work out that way mind you! I'm not so sure of a quick start, but then again in the earlier 2 months of the season you only need a 2 week phase of favourable MJO in the western part of the basin to get 1-2 storms going and your already going to be at or even slightly above average even if nothing else forms in those two months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Halfway there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Should be noted that this year's name list is the one used in 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999 and 2005. Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma were retired from the 2005 list. Of course, Katia and Rina are awfully close to Katrina and Rita. One could argue that a Kelsey and a Robin would have been better suited replacements Also should note that those of us who remember tracking Hurricane Bret in 1999 or Hurricane Emily in 2005 as if it were yesterday will be feeling...mighty old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 omg naso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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