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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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I like the visible landfall loop best. That's hawt.

892 landfalls tend to be that way

from wikipedia:

On October 17, Megi became the first tropical cyclone to have a pressure below 900 millibars since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.[103] Later that day, it became the first tropical cyclone since Hurricane Allen in 1980 to have one-minute sustained winds of 190 mph. Early on October 18, the JMA reported that 10-minute sustained winds had increased to 230 km/h (145 mph), making Megi one of three storms to attain this intensity, after Super Typhoon Bess (1982) and Super Typhoon Tip (1979). When it made landfall on October 18, it became one of the strongest tropical cyclones recorded to make landfall. Megi was the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines in four years.[104]

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Ugh, totally. Even though I am crazed with work right now, the time still seems to move slowly.

So depressing.

Yea, it really is dragging by .. Hopefully this year Josh you will have some nice U.S. landfalling systems to chase. Before you know the forum will be alive with the tropics talk. Rainstorm will saying by June 6th everyone needs to lower their storm totals and by June 15th a few people will call the season a bust because we haven't had 3 named storms yet.. :lol:

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Just to pass the time, I thought I would pass on some info-- right now the Atlantic is still at record warm levels:

Atlantic SSTs

The general -NAO/AO combination has been very effective at keeping this warm water in place, due to all the relaxed

trades because of the weak Atlantic ridge. This would generally would herald an active 2011. Yet, there is some trouble

ahead. All models have been consistently showing a positive, in fact very positive NAO/AO developing:

AO forecasts

This would take a big chunk out of those warm SSTs and reduce them below record levels for February. It all depends on

how long the trades last, but it seems like a fair bet is at least two weeks of 20-25 kt, maybe higher, trades over a large portion

of the Atlantic basin.

La Nina remains at moderate/strong levels, but should weaken during the late winter/spring. I'm not sure it matters much over

the long haul, but a safe bet at this time is weak La Nina or neutral conditions. We would need some significant westerly wind

bursts over the western and central Pacific to even get me worried about El Nino this year, and climo is heavily against that.

So-- plenty to watch for-- :popcorn:

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You're predicting an unfavorable steering regime?

when you combine the AO with the persistent east coast trough, antilles TUTT, SW flow from the equator and the Orinoco delta signal, you're looking at about 8 storms and a couple dozen struggling invests.

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Hey Josh! Wish i knew really what the steering pattern will be come the meat of the season. Its Anybodys guess in my view.

My point was all you need is an unfavorable steering pattern in place for 2 weeks and the U.S. could be in trouble.

Do you mean "unfavorable" in the sense that the storms avoid the US or they strike the US? There's a bit of discrepancy in the definitions of "favorable" in meteorology circles.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sea surface temps play a valuable role during the season but, as always it will ultimately come down to an unfavorable steering regime.

as we saw last year, sst's are highly overrated. any steering regime has to be more favorable than last season

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Is there any relation to the pattern that has brought NYC 60 inches of snow this winter and the ensuing tropical season?

Weakly, yes. The early season -NAO did not allow systems to dig into the subtropics, keeping cold air masses away from the Tropical Atlantic. That has helped keep SSTs elevated across the Tropical Atlantic. There is no relationship, to my knowledge, between winter patterns and future warm season cyclone tracks.

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CPC:

Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Niña in the coming months (Fig. 6). A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Recent trends in the observations and models do not offer many hints on which outcome is more likely. Also, model skill is historically at a minimum during the Northern Hemisphere spring (the “spring barrier”). Therefore La Niña is expected to weaken during the next several months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely during May-June 2011.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

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