k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oops, yeah. That one kind of made up for all the little babies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice! I that shot. Karl was a cool 'cane-- very weird and violent on the ground. It was hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice! I that shot. Karl was a cool 'cane-- very weird and violent on the ground. It was hawt. finding that in my archive made me look at some megi porn...i'm done talking about the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 finding that in my archive made me look at some megi porn...i'm done talking about the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Who knows, a stronger Bermuda High may well bring some excitement this season. Meanwhile, I'm dreaming of the warmer days of tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Perv. Gettin' me all worked up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like the visible landfall loop best. That's hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like the visible landfall loop best. That's hawt. 892 landfalls tend to be that way from wikipedia: On October 17, Megi became the first tropical cyclone to have a pressure below 900 millibars since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.[103] Later that day, it became the first tropical cyclone since Hurricane Allen in 1980 to have one-minute sustained winds of 190 mph. Early on October 18, the JMA reported that 10-minute sustained winds had increased to 230 km/h (145 mph), making Megi one of three storms to attain this intensity, after Super Typhoon Bess (1982) and Super Typhoon Tip (1979). When it made landfall on October 18, it became one of the strongest tropical cyclones recorded to make landfall. Megi was the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines in four years.[104] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ugh, totally. Even though I am crazed with work right now, the time still seems to move slowly. So depressing. Yea, it really is dragging by .. Hopefully this year Josh you will have some nice U.S. landfalling systems to chase. Before you know the forum will be alive with the tropics talk. Rainstorm will saying by June 6th everyone needs to lower their storm totals and by June 15th a few people will call the season a bust because we haven't had 3 named storms yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just to pass the time, I thought I would pass on some info-- right now the Atlantic is still at record warm levels: Atlantic SSTs The general -NAO/AO combination has been very effective at keeping this warm water in place, due to all the relaxed trades because of the weak Atlantic ridge. This would generally would herald an active 2011. Yet, there is some trouble ahead. All models have been consistently showing a positive, in fact very positive NAO/AO developing: AO forecasts This would take a big chunk out of those warm SSTs and reduce them below record levels for February. It all depends on how long the trades last, but it seems like a fair bet is at least two weeks of 20-25 kt, maybe higher, trades over a large portion of the Atlantic basin. La Nina remains at moderate/strong levels, but should weaken during the late winter/spring. I'm not sure it matters much over the long haul, but a safe bet at this time is weak La Nina or neutral conditions. We would need some significant westerly wind bursts over the western and central Pacific to even get me worried about El Nino this year, and climo is heavily against that. So-- plenty to watch for-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sea surface temps play a valuable role during the season but, as always it will ultimately come down to an unfavorable steering regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sea surface temps play a valuable role during the season but, as always it will ultimately come down to an unfavorable steering regime. You're predicting an unfavorable steering regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You're predicting an unfavorable steering regime? when you combine the AO with the persistent east coast trough, antilles TUTT, SW flow from the equator and the Orinoco delta signal, you're looking at about 8 storms and a couple dozen struggling invests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You're predicting an unfavorable steering regime? Hey Josh! Wish i knew really what the steering pattern will be come the meat of the season. Its Anybodys guess in my view. My point was all you need is an unfavorable steering pattern in place for 2 weeks and the U.S. could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 when you combine the AO with the persistent east coast trough, antilles TUTT, SW flow from the equator and the Orinoco delta signal, you're looking at about 8 storms and a couple dozen struggling invests. HOW COULD YOU FORGET ABOUT EUROPEAN HEAT WAVES?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey Josh! Wish i knew really what the steering pattern will be come the meat of the season. Its Anybodys guess in my view. My point was all you need is an unfavorable steering pattern in place for 2 weeks and the U.S. could be in trouble. Do you mean "unfavorable" in the sense that the storms avoid the US or they strike the US? There's a bit of discrepancy in the definitions of "favorable" in meteorology circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I thought I would pass this along... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback2011_two/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 I thought I would pass this along... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback2011_two/ Oh, my! You posted about something tropical! You feeling OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sea surface temps play a valuable role during the season but, as always it will ultimately come down to an unfavorable steering regime. as we saw last year, sst's are highly overrated. any steering regime has to be more favorable than last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 as we saw last year, sst's are highly overrated. any steering regime has to be more favorable than last season I hope you get a direct hit by a 110-kt cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Is there any relation to the pattern that has brought NYC 60 inches of snow this winter and the ensuing tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Oh, my! You posted about something tropical! You feeling OK? Actually, no I'm not. I thought you were too busy to be online and decided it was time to begin shifting gears. But I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Is there any relation to the pattern that has brought NYC 60 inches of snow this winter and the ensuing tropical season? Weakly, yes. The early season -NAO did not allow systems to dig into the subtropics, keeping cold air masses away from the Tropical Atlantic. That has helped keep SSTs elevated across the Tropical Atlantic. There is no relationship, to my knowledge, between winter patterns and future warm season cyclone tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Actually, no I'm not. I thought you were too busy to be online and decided it was time to begin shifting gears. But I digress... Too busy for OT. I can post about tropical stuff, though-- so you can just hush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 June 1st can't come soon enough. I hope the Carolinas do well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 June 1st can't come soon enough. I hope the Carolinas do well this year. You're tellin' me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think I saw an Iceberg off Galveston Island this morning. Is it tropical season yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Random thought, 1899 mega freeze and 1900 hurricane. 2011 Bartlesville breaks all time Oklahoma record, 2012 epic Gulf Coast hurricane? 1899 was also the San Ciriaco storm. But Josh doesn't like islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 CPC: Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Niña in the coming months (Fig. 6). A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Recent trends in the observations and models do not offer many hints on which outcome is more likely. Also, model skill is historically at a minimum during the Northern Hemisphere spring (the “spring barrier”). Therefore La Niña is expected to weaken during the next several months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely during May-June 2011. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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