Atlantic Tropical Action 2011

[Srain]

This spot has 20 to 25 kts of shear right now, but if this area of convection presists, we might be looking at an invest tomorrow afternoon, but because of shear dont expect much more than an invest until the weekend or early next week

Why an invest by tomorrow? Convection hasn't lasted for more than 24 hours and certainly has not sustained any deep convection for more than 10-12 hours. I suspect the NHC will be in no rush to classify an invest until shear decreases and/or an actual surface low develops instead of a trough axis.

[kwt]

Well convection has been flaring up for a solid 24hrs now, sure its been a little bit all over the place but it has been brewing for a little while. Then there is the fact that nearly all the models develop it, therefore the NHC may well be interested to see what thier own models suggest strength wise, etc. On top of that its in a favourable area for June for development, with some sort of weak low pressure system and in a region of the Caribbean where any westward motion could well make it a land threat if it did develop in the short term...oh and given its early season still, it'll be a good time for the NHC to test run so to speak on a system that has a shot at developing.

Plenty enough reasons for an invest in the next 24-48hrs or so.

[Ed Lizard]

Why an invest by tomorrow? Convection hasn't lasted for more than 24 hours and certainly has not sustained any deep convection for more than 10-12 hours. I suspect the NHC will be in no rush to classify an invest until shear decreases and/or an actual surface low develops instead of a trough axis.

Well, yes, except the last invest comes to mind...