am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You mean this as a troll post, Half troll/half serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Thanks! I greatly appreciate it. I'll also make sure I don't make a stupid mistake like I did earlier... what I did would be comparable to someone forgetting Charley, which made landfall about 50 miles south of me. I still feel bad, but will do my best to not allow it to happen again. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Thanks! I greatly appreciate it. I'll also make sure I don't make a stupid mistake like I did earlier... what I did would be comparable to someone forgetting Charley, which made landfall about 50 miles south of me. I still feel bad, but will do my best to not allow it to happen again. Thanks guys! Oh, hush-- it's no big deal. Just a couple of us are big historical-stats nerds around here, so it's aways slightly dangerous territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 P.S. Jorge (wxmx) was trolling me Re: Gloria via Skype yesterday-- because he knows it's a sentimental favorite of mine-- and in light of the rather asymmetric structure at landfall, he was like, "How many inches of snow did you get in that one?" Little wiseazz. Gloria is pretty much the reason why I'm in my profession. I had an interest in wx beforehand, but I was in 1st grade for Gloria and remember so many details from that storm. I lived south of BOS at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice flareup in the SW Caribbean with the approach of a wave axis... HPC: ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE...A BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /UNLIKE THE 06Z GFS/ WHICH SHOULD KEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW CONSTRAINED TO THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. KEPT CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS 17Z NHC COORDINATED POINTS SINCE THE GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SYSTEM...ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Gloria is pretty much the reason why I'm in my profession. I had an interest in wx beforehand, but I was in 1st grade for Gloria and remember so many details from that storm. I lived south of BOS at the time. Wow, cool. I was on Long Island, and it was my first 'cane as a Baby Tropical Dude (I was fifteen). It was the first time I ever saw the wind tear down a large tree-- I was like, "Whoa." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wow, cool. I was on Long Island, and it was my first 'cane as a Baby Tropical Dude (I was fifteen). It was the first time I ever saw the wind tear down a large tree-- I was like, "Whoa." It was more like it really got me interested. I think every met has a benchmark storm that got them interested in wx, and that was mine. I probably would have been doing it regardless, but yeah I remember those trees bending to the north and snapping, as well as the stratus clouds flying north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yea Gloria was the storm that got me interested in the weather too. I was living in Morris County, NJ. I was in the 4th grade. Couldn't believe how windy it was that day and we got the edge of the storm. 2 trees in my yard fell over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wow, cool. I was on Long Island, and it was my first 'cane as a Baby Tropical Dude (I was fifteen). It was the first time I ever saw the wind tear down a large tree-- I was like, "Whoa." My first was Belle, which was generously considered a Cat 1. Some weepng willow trees down, a couple of days w/o power. Probably from willows down on powerlines. Only structural damage I saw was from the willow tree that punched a hole through the roof of the Smith's garage across the street. Evac'd to North Massapequa for non-existent storm surge, but was my first exposure to cable TV and HBO before the power failed. The uprooted willows that weren't cleared, in fields and such, didn't die, but kept cranking out leaves lying on their sides. My Dad wouldn't let me outside that night, if there was an eye passage, however pathetic, I missed it. Missed the Ike eye as well, although it was filling in already looking at it... The Caribbean is still there, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It was more like it really got me interested. I think every met has a benchmark storm that got them interested in wx, and that was mine. I probably would have been doing it regardless, but yeah I remember those trees bending to the north and snapping, as well as the stratus clouds flying north. It was Gilbert 1988 for me. I remember watching John Hope on TWC explaining how big and powerful it was and I was hooked from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 My first was Belle, which was generously considered a Cat 1. I think it was a legit Cat 1. I don't think the designation was generous. The central pressure at landfall (980 mb), measured winds at JFK and LGA, and estimated winds on the S Shore and at Jones Beach suggest it was a solid, 65-kt cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 It was Gilbert 1988 for me. I remember watching John Hope on TWC explaining how big and powerful it was and I was hooked from there. That's a good first. Strongest ever at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think it was a legit Cat 1. I don't think the designation was generous. The central pressure at landfall (980 mb), measured winds at JFK and LGA, and estimated winds on the S Shore and at Jones Beach suggest it was a solid, 65-kt cyclone. Well, no property damage not involving trees I could see, and that was in a coastal town. Whereas Ike, just a Cat 2, and we're 50 plus miles inland, the neighborhood was full of the blue tarps, and lots of trees, not just shallow rooted willows, snapped or uprooted, and an auto supply store maybe 5 miles from me on I-45 near Shepperd, a concrete block building, collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Well, no property damage not involving trees I could see, and that was in a coastal town. Whereas Ike, just a Cat 2, and we're 50 plus miles inland, the neighborhood was full of the blue tarps, and lots of trees, not just shallow rooted willows, snapped or uprooted, and an auto supply store maybe 5 miles from me on I-45 near Shepperd, a concrete block building, collapsed. Ike was a high-end Cat 2, and it was very large-- so a cyclone like that would most certainly bring winds over hurricane force well inland. As per the original SS damage descriptions, Cat-1 winds are not expected to cause any structural damage. It should be mostly to trees, signs, and fences. I do know at least one hotel on the S Shore lost its roof. The data and estimates suggest that the original designation was correct-- a 65-kt landfall in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I can't see it on regular satellite, but per NHC, a wave is at 71ºW moving towards the disorganized blob. GFS is 3 or 4 days away from a much mellower shear forecast. Remains broad and with limited mean layer RH on the Western side through the next week, but I still think we can get a 93L just in time for the new thread Johs starts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I can attest to Hurricane force winds well inland with Ike. Gusts were greater than 85 mph as well and we certainly saw some structural damage in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I can attest to Hurricane force winds well inland with Ike. Gusts were greater than 85 mph as well and we certainly saw some structural damage in my neighborhood. That was scary loud. I don't know if it was rain or pebbles, but it sounded like someone was pelting the house with rocks. I can definitely go 15 more years w/o a major, until the kids are gone to college and maybe I can talk my wife into enjoying a hurricane party with me. Cat 2 well inland, bad enough. Now, I'm sad the Caribbean blob probably won't come visiting with six inches of liquid sunshine for my lawn... Edit to add- we had blue tarps on some houses for must have been a year, and that annoying IkeAttorney.com TV ads haven't stopped yet. My house survived with no damage, like a champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It was Gilbert 1988 for me. I remember watching John Hope on TWC explaining how big and powerful it was and I was hooked from there. Also for me. The 80s were a snooze IMBY... I was visiting my uncle's family in Houston during Allen, and remember my father warning my mother about it. I was too young during Anita to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 While we are walking down tropical memory lane, Carla did it for me. Funny how the the sights and sounds of 50 years ago are still fresh in my tropical nerdy mind. Happy 50th, Carla.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Do hurricanes hit Georgia? If so, when was the last time a major hit Georgia. Florida and the Carolinas see lots of Majorcanes and tropical storms yet Georgia hardly sees any tropical cyclones just some rain bands or remains of the storm . Why is this the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Do hurricanes hit Georgia? If so, when was the last time a major hit Georgia. Florida and the Carolinas see lots of Majorcanes and tropical storms yet Georgia hardly sees any tropical cyclones just some rain bands or remains of the storm . Why is this the case? GA doesn't get as much action simply because it's "tucked in", whereas FL and the Carolinas "stick out". Most 'canes miss it to the E. A cyclone has to 1) recurve very close to the SE Coast or 2) take a very weird WNW track in order to directly impact the state. GA has not been hit by a major in over 100 years-- however, in the 1890s, it was hit by 3 hurricanes, including a Cat 3 and a Cat 4. The last direct hit was David 1979 (Cat 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 GA doesn't get as much action simply because it's "tucked in", whereas FL and the Carolinas "stick out". Most 'canes miss it to the E. A cyclone has to 1) recurve very close to the SE Coast or 2) take a very weird WNW track in order to directly impact the state. GA has not been hit by a major in over 100 years-- however, in the 1890s, it was hit by 3 hurricanes, including a Cat 3 and a Cat 4. The last direct hit was David 1979 (Cat 2). was there any surge reports for those hurricanes that hit GA? a hurricane coming from the east or SE would pile up alot of water on the Georgia coastline just do to their geographical position of being tucked in..Luckily they rarely get hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 was there any surge reports for those hurricanes that hit GA? a hurricane coming from the east or SE would pile up alot of water on the Georgia coastline just do to their geographical position of being tucked in..Luckily they rarely get hit lol The Sea Islands hurricane in 1893, which I believe is among the most significant storms known to have directly impacted GA, shoved 16 feet of water onshore. Pretty sizable surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Well, the 12z Euro certainly is, uh, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 12z Euro has it almost stationary south of Cuba for the entire 10 day period it seems. Down to 1001 mb's at hour 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Do hurricanes hit Georgia? If so, when was the last time a major hit Georgia. Florida and the Carolinas see lots of Majorcanes and tropical storms yet Georgia hardly sees any tropical cyclones just some rain bands or remains of the storm . Why is this the case? October 2nd, 1898 ... and before that it was Aug 28th, 1893, just 5 years prior. The main factors of why Georgia hardly sees TCs is 2 fold: 1) Shape of the coast only allows for mostly west moving cyclones to hit Georgia, which means there should be an extended period of time without a trough influencing the steering currents...that's it's very difficult in such a relatively northern location (happens in the tropics, but it's rare in the mid latitudes). and 2) The coast of Georgia is small compared to that of Florida and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Well, the 12z Euro certainly is, uh, interesting 12z Euro has it almost stationary south of Cuba for the entire 10 day period it seems. Down to 1001 mb's at hour 216. There goes our incipient above normal TCHP in the Central Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 There goes our incipient above normal TCHP in the Central Caribbean. But at least we'd be on Don by June 15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 But at least we'd be on Don by June 15... Nothing excites me more than 15 NS with a cumulative 78 ACE for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This spot has 20 to 25 kts of shear right now, but if this area of convection presists, we might be looking at an invest tomorrow afternoon, but because of shear dont expect much more than an invest until the weekend or early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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