CUmet Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Cliffs notes? I'm not going to spend the time navigating through his garbage. lol, I skipped ahead to read some of the hurricane stuff, encountered the "Do not EVER use probabilities for seasonal forecasting TC" statement, and stopped reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I'm a novice and knew it read like garbage... Cliffs notes? I'm not going to spend the time navigating through his garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Cliffs notes? I'm not going to spend the time navigating through his garbage. He didn't give numbers so who knows what that will be. Main storm track into tampico, secondary into ms gulf coast and the big bend (Lolz). No mention of NC threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Cliffs notes? I'm not going to spend the time navigating through his garbage. lol, I skipped ahead to read some of the hurricane stuff, encountered the "Do not EVER use probabilities for seasonal forecasting TC" statement, and stopped reading. OK, cool. My two favorite tropical mets have the same opinion I do. The world makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 lookin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Just read DT's hurricane season forecast. It's pretty lame that he can't issue his own forecast without bashing other groups. Agreed, he always has to take his shots at Dr Gray!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Meh... HPC Final Update: AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE MIDWESTERN/MID SOUTH RIDGE...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A SLOW PROCESS CONSIDERING THE LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS NORTHWEST CAUSING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EARLY ON WITH A SUBSEQUENT SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED. THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE OF FAIRLY LARGE SIZE PER THE GUIDANCE. THE POINTS FOR THIS LOW WERE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT 17Z. First visit to the CIMMS page for the Atlantic this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 ECM shows a decent environment 48 hours out for some sort of warm cored tropical/subtropical development, with a low shear, good upper level divergence environment. The model shows increasing mid level relative humidities as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 DT's "forecast" was a joke. Dedicating however many pages to bashing the other agencies and not even given out a real forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Decent stationary convection at this hour.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 CIMMS TPW loop suggests near 50 mm (~2 inches) TPW, not bone dry, WV imagery suggests above convection safely away from worst of dry air, but while it is apparently well ventilated, it is being sheared badly. (See also above post with CIMMS shear map) 18Z GFS does lower shear in a few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It's crazy to think that the United States hasn't been hit by a hurricane since Hurricane Gustav Ike, which made landfall September 1 13, 2008.... By my calculations, that's 1002 days! We may be able to get this number close to 1050 before the US is even threatened by a hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 It's crazy to think that the United States hasn't been hit by a hurricane since Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall September 1, 2008.... By my calculations, that's 1002 days! We may be able to get this number close to 1050 before the US is even threatened by a hurricane... Ike hit the USA on 13 September 2008. It's not that unusual for the USA to have two calendar years in a row without a 'cane-- for example, just in the last 30 years: 2000-2001 1993-1994 1981-1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Ike hit the USA on 13 September 2008. It's not that unusual for the USA to have two calendar years in a row without a 'cane-- for example, just in the last 30 years: 2000-2001 1993-1994 1981-1982 Five years without a major is pretty uncommon, though, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Five years without a major is pretty uncommon, though, isn't it? Extremely. Reanalysis may affect the stats a little, but as they currently stand, if the USA doesn't get a 100-kt cyclone this year, we'll be getting into uncharted territory. For anyone who doesn't know, the last major to hit the USA was Wilma 2005, on the SW coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Not really. And how quickly some seem to forget Ike with the economic disaster that occured the same week. Shame on you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Not really. And how quickly some seem to forget Ike with the economic disaster that occured the same week. Shame on you... Wait... Are you saying five years isn't unusual, or that Ike was a major? I would disagree with either statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wait... Are you saying five years isn't unusual, or that Ike was a major? I would disagree with either statement. Took out the post, guys, lighten up. I was just shocked at the Gustav statement and replied abit too soon. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 The USA has had 5 consecutive calendar years without a major (2006-2010). The last time this happened was 1910-1914, and also 1901-1905. If the USA doesn't get a major this year, that will be 6 consecutive years-- something that has not happened since 1861-1868. (I suppose it's possible that one of the 'canes in this period might have been a major, but based on reanalyzed data, none of them are believed to have been.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Took out the post, guys, lighten up. I was just shocked at the Gustav statement and replied abit too soon. My mistake. Well alright then. I was surprised by the Ike omission as well-- especially given that Ike is the only significant hurricane to hit the USA in the last half decade. P.S. I wish you didn't take out the post-- it had that beautiful radar image in it. It looked very nice for a large-RMW Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 WOW! Yeah, totally blanked out on Ike there.... So then it's only 989 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Well alright then. I was surprised by the Ike omission as well-- especially given that Ike is the only significant hurricane to hit the USA in the last half decade. P.S. I wish you didn't take out the post-- it had that beautiful radar image in it. It looked very nice for a large-RMW Cat 2. Just as a reminder of what we all went through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The USA has had 5 consecutive calendar years without a major (2006-2010). The last time this happened was 1910-1914, and also 1901-1905. If the USA doesn't get a major this year, that will be 6 consecutive years-- something that has not happened since 1861-1868. Interesting, I didnt realize it had been that long. Here's to a beauty this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Took out the post, guys, lighten up. I was just shocked at the Gustav statement and replied abit too soon. My mistake. My mistake Srain, didn't mean any disrespect by forgetting about Ike... I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just as a reminder of what we all went through... It looked as good as Wilma. It really started to pull together in the end. I remember how big it was-- it just took forever to pass. I'm pretty sure my location (Texas City) had well over 12 solid hrs of gale winds. Even the eyewall seemed to take hours. My hotel lost its roof in that one. Memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The USA has had 5 consecutive calendar years without a major (2006-2010). The last time this happened was 1910-1914, and also 1901-1905. If the USA doesn't get a major this year, that will be 6 consecutive years-- something that has not happened since 1861-1868. (I suppose it's possible that one of the 'canes in this period might have been a major, but based on reanalyzed data, none of them are believed to have been.) Is there anywhere that you can easily get the historical data with years like this? Or did you go through all the NHC stuff and have it memorized? Just wondering. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Is there anywhere that you can easily get the historical data with years like this? Or did you go through all the NHC stuff and have it memorized? Just wondering. Thanks. Here is the NHC's official list of all hurricane landfalls in the USA from 1851 to present: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Important Note: The NHC is currently reanalyzing all of these events and recategorizing a lot of them up or down. The period 1851-1930 has been completed, so those data can be considered reliable-- and you can also consider stuff from 1989 onward to be pretty accurate. However, the period in between (1931-1988) will be seeing lots of changes-- but for now this is the official list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 However, the period in between (1931-1988) will be seeing lots of changes-- but for now this is the official list. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf You mean this as a troll post, but I am all for the proposed downgrade of Gloria (and the other changes recommended in that paper). I was in it, and it sure wasn't a Cat 3. That having been said, I might at some point write a note to Chris Landsea to argue 85 kt (as opposed to 75 kt) for Gloria, given the structural damage on the S Shore of Long Island and also the wind-pressure relationship formulas you and I have been discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 P.S. Jorge (wxmx) was trolling me Re: Gloria via Skype yesterday-- because he knows it's a sentimental favorite of mine-- and in light of the rather asymmetric structure at landfall, he was like, "How many inches of snow did you get in that one?" Little wiseazz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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