am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 They could do a simplified version of Ike, couldn't they, using max winds, RMW, weighted radius in four quadrants of 64 knot, 50 knot, and 34 knots, couldn't they? I think that all comes out every six hours. They aren't that accurate. My masters was on the differences between HWIND and the operational NHC advisories (amongst other wind field things). They both have their pros and cons but neither one is all that great to be used as a ground truth. There's just not enough observations to accurately quantify them. And they're the things that are worried about least by the specialists (again, as they should be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 They aren't that accurate. My masters was on the differences between HWIND and the operational NHC advisories (amongst other wind field things). They both have their pros and cons but neither one is all that great to be used as a ground truth. There's just not enough observations to accurately quantify them. And they're the things that are worried about least by the specialists (again, as they should be). You make a good point, but surely you agree that it would be somewhat better than ACE, which doesn't take wind fields into account at all, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You make a good point, but surely you agree that it would be somewhat better than ACE, which doesn't take wind fields into account at all, right? As a metric, yeah, no doubt. That was part of my motivation for doing my thesis. And it's not like there aren't pretty decent error bars on ACE, too. But the error bars on IKE are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As to where we are headed next summer, it is still too early to give more than a tentative call. But considering that such a well-developed -ENSO episode is likely to hold over into next year, the scenario of a cool West/hot East configuration must be mentioned. I also noticed just how warm the Atlantic Ocean is close to Africa and the Lesser Antilles, with a very active ITCZ thunderstorm pulse in central/southern Africa into Brazil. If Saharan dry values are not an issue, then the long period of quiet tropics close to the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico could be at an end after June 1. Just a few things to think about.... Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 15, 2011 at 6:30 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-15-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct#ixzz1BJhpRr1S from LC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As to where we are headed next summer, it is still too early to give more than a tentative call. But considering that such a well-developed -ENSO episode is likely to hold over into next year, the scenario of a cool West/hot East configuration must be mentioned. I also noticed just how warm the Atlantic Ocean is close to Africa and the Lesser Antilles, with a very active ITCZ thunderstorm pulse in central/southern Africa into Brazil. If Saharan dry values are not an issue, then the long period of quiet tropics close to the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico could be at an end after June 1. Just a few things to think about.... Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 15, 2011 at 6:30 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-15-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct#ixzz1BJhpRr1S from LC That's all well and good, but I'd rather read wx1996's thoughts than LC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Other than noting a few favorite second year cold ENSO events, which has some elements of wish casting due to East Coast close calls, I don't trust anyone, except maybe HM or a few of the guys with extreme understanding of the indices and what they really mean, to have anything better than a very vage idea in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd take another 99 if we were guaranteed another lenny for the late season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That's all well and good, but I'd rather read wx1996's thoughts than LC's. LC is quite good. the best last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LC is quite good. the best last season. 12 Storms! I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12 Storms! I think not. again, landfalls are everything. i dont know of anyone else who predicted no US cane landfalls last season. greatest call of al time in my opinion. if LC now says landfalls are more likely, it takes on added weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 again, landfalls are everything. i dont know of anyone else who predicted no US cane landfalls last season. greatest call of al time in my opinion. if LC now says landfalls are more likely, it takes on added weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 again, landfalls are everything. i dont know of anyone else who predicted no US cane landfalls last season. greatest call of al time in my opinion. if LC now says landfalls are more likely, it takes on added weight. No landfalls due to lack of storms is quite a bit different than no landfalls due to persistant SE US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No landfalls due to lack of storms is quite a bit different than no landfalls due to persistant SE US trough. who else said no US landfalls last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 who else said no US landfalls last season? the ghost of john hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 In a small piece of 2010 news... The Tropical Cyclone Report for Richard came out today, and their verdict Re: landfall intensity in BZ is 977 mb/85 kt, which is higher than the operational value of 80 kt and graduates it to Cat 2. I can't help feeling this seems a bit... generous, somehow. I'm basing this opinion partially on the really anemic wind data out of BZE, just 20 n mi N of the landfall point: 32 kt G 54. Granted, radar imagery suggests the Belize City was outside of the core ring of convection-- but that just seems really lame for an open-exposure airport reading just 20 n mi from the center, on the right (and probably stronger) side. The HRD surface-wind analysis was also pretty blah. I'm not doubting the NHC's judgment-- they explain their reasoning in the report, and it makes perfect sense-- but I'm just surprised, I guess. The strong winds must have been really tight around that center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Image stolen from Ji's JB predicts an ice age thread. Might be my imagination, but neutral to even weakly warm ENSOs are generally good for excitement locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In a small piece of 2010 news... The Tropical Cyclone Report for Richard came out today, and their verdict Re: landfall intensity in BZ is 977 mb/85 kt, which is higher than the operational value of 80 kt and graduates it to Cat 2. I can't help feeling this seems a bit... generous, somehow. I'm basing this opinion partially on the really anemic wind data out of BZE, just 20 n mi N of the landfall point: 32 kt G 54. Granted, radar imagery suggests the Belize City was outside of the core ring of convection-- but that just seems really lame for an open-exposure airport reading just 20 n mi from the center, on the right (and probably stronger) side. The HRD surface-wind analysis was also pretty blah. I'm not doubting the NHC's judgment-- they explain their reasoning in the report, and it makes perfect sense-- but I'm just surprised, I guess. The strong winds must have been really tight around that center. It was blowing up pretty good at landfall and looked better after the eye crossed the coast. I bet the eyewall was ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Image stolen from Ji's JB predicts an ice age thread. Might be my imagination, but neutral to even weakly warm ENSOs are generally good for excitement locally. I could do another weak nina-neutral. After that I'll be ready for a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was blowing up pretty good at landfall and looked better after the eye crossed the coast. I bet the eyewall was ferocious. Yeah, I guess. It presented quite nicely on radar-- and clearly the core missed BZE to the S. But, still-- that 32 kt is lame. I guess it was just a very tight wind field. An odd theme of last year was that all of the significant landfalling cyclones* (Alex, Hermine, Karl, Paula, Richard) had very small RMWs. * Significant cyclone = strong TS or 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This off season is really dragging by... Cool view of a few 2010 canes from the space station - Cameras on the International Space Station captured new views of Hurricanes Julia and Igor from 225 statute miles above the Earth on September 16, 2010 as well as views of newly formed Hurricane Karl. Julia is weakening, but is seen in the video as a formidable Category 2 hurricane as it moved northwest across the eastern Atlantic with winds of 105 miles an hour. Igor remains a powerful hurricane and strengthened overnight back to a Category 4 storm as it moved west-northwest across the western Atlantic with winds of 145 miles an hour. What was Tropical Storm Karl crossed the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane over the Bay of Campeche Thursday morning with winds of 75 miles an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 This off season is really dragging by... Ugh, totally. Even though I am crazed with work right now, the time still seems to move slowly. So depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The toughest time is between the end of tornado season, and the beginning of the active part of hurricane season. June and July don't usually cut it, the one excellent June/July combo I remember, 1997, flatlined the rest of the year. Claudette was in July, Allison in June, but those are usually dull months of blob watching and Hour 272 spin-ups on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ugh, totally. Even though I am crazed with work right now, the time still seems to move slowly. So depressing. Hear ya. I'm working on my tournament schedule now for the summer so at least I have that going for me. Any word on the Karl report? Wasn't sure if you happened to send that email... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hear ya. I'm working on my tournament schedule now for the summer so at least I have that going for me. Any word on the Karl report? Wasn't sure if you happened to send that email... I didn't. I couldn't get myself to do it. I was worried about seeming pushy. Of course I'm in suspense about it. The reports haven't been too rich with detail this year-- I think because the cyclones on foreign territories are just harder to document-- so I'm hoping they might at least flesh out the Karl one with my damage survey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, I guess. It presented quite nicely on radar-- and clearly the core missed BZE to the S. But, still-- that 32 kt is lame. I guess it was just a very tight wind field. An odd theme of last year was that all of the significant landfalling cyclones* (Alex, Hermine, Karl, Paula, Richard) had very small RMWs. * Significant cyclone = strong TS or 'cane. remember when microcanes seemed to not be the norm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm hoping they might at least flesh out the Karl one with my damage survey. how pissed are you going to be if they cite Mr. Henry Plett in richard's report but ignore josh morgerman, esq in karl's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 remember when microcanes seemed to not be the norm? Yeah, it's weird. I don't know what was going on last year. But the last few years have seen decent-sized 'canes overall: 2005's newsmakers were mostly very large: Dennis was small, but Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were big 'canes with huge wind fields when they hit the USA. Humberto 2007 was tiny. Dolly 2008 was small-ish, Gustav average, Ike huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, it's weird. I don't know what was going on last year. But the last few years have seen decent-sized 'canes overall: 2005's newsmakers were mostly very large: Dennis was small, but Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were big 'canes with huge wind fields when they hit the USA. Humberto 2007 was tiny. Dolly 2008 was small-ish, Gustav average, Ike huge. I guess we shouldn't ignore Igor...talk about a macrocane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 how pissed are you going to be if they cite Mr. Henry Plett in richard's report but ignore josh morgerman, esq in karl's? Mega-pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I guess we shouldn't ignore Igor...talk about a macrocane. Oops, yeah. That one kind of made up for all the little babies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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