Srain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The Euro ensembles suggesting a bit of lower pressures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The Euro ensembles suggesting a bit of lower pressures... I want the op Euro and the ensembles to be off about 200 miles to the South. Not going IMBY weenie for first week of June, I just want deep Easterly flow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Meanwhile the ITCZ is simmering ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow-- nice. That's some seriously decent convection-- and over a very wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow-- nice. That's some seriously decent convection-- and over a very wide area. Is that early for this time of year? Won't shear just rip it up anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Is that early for this time of year? Won't shear just rip it up anyway? Yes, and no. Tropical Storm Allison partly originated from a wave that left Africa in May, reached the Pacific, started to develop, got pulled across into the Gulf by a polar low, and became a sub-tropical/tropical storm, and its mid-level remnants rained enough there was a TWC Storm Stories about it. 10 inches behind, roughly, on rain here, but 20 to 30 inches in 2 days might be more than we'd actually want. Six or eight inches, yeah, the usual low spots and Pasadena would flood, but the water table would recharge and I wouldn't have to sprinkle for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Is that early for this time of year? Won't shear just rip it up anyway? The west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof have been rather active the past few weeks. Still way early to see anything develope out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Is that early for this time of year? Won't shear just rip it up anyway? Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen. We'll always have Bertha as a half decent Cape Verde-ish storm from the first half of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 We'll always have Bertha as a half decent Cape Verde-ish storm from the first half of July. Yep-- but so rare I won't ever hope for a really good July CV cyclone on any given year. P.S. It's funny you mention that one, as I've been reviewing it recently as part of some research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen. That's all that counts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 That's all that counts! You might also like the Lushine theory about May rainfall and a South Florida Hurricane strike!! http://articles.sun-...ne-floyd-s-path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 why would anyone pay for that crap when they can just read rainstorm and art rosen here? Can you feel the love tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 You might also like the Lushine theory about May rainfall and a South Florida Hurricane strike!! http://articles.sun-...ne-floyd-s-path Nice. I posted on the Miami NOAA facebook page and asked about how reliable it is since that article is a few years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice. I posted on the Miami NOAA facebook page and asked about how reliable it is since that article is a few years old. Let me know what they say. I don't know if anyone else has done any extensive research on this theory or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Caribbean will looks suspicious next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I did some half assed research whenever there was excessive rainfall in our area in the months leading up to the tropical season and what played out for the mid and upper Texas coast a few years back. Think it was before the 08 season. There was a guy on the local forum that had even more extensive stats (rainfall wise.) It wasn't very technical but did have some interesting results. Of course at this point in our neck of the woods it's a reversal type of mentality with the current drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Yep-- but so rare I won't ever hope for a really good July CV cyclone on any given year. P.S. It's funny you mention that one, as I've been reviewing it recently as part of some research. Bertha is special cause she was my "first"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Bertha is special cause she was my "first"...... Blonde with blue eye: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen. It is cool that such a nerdy, articulate, educated, pristine and colorful writer, facts and the science of it all person has a soft spot for an omen. You are a well rounded and refined dude. Just sayin! And where the fook is that book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Bertha is special cause she was my "first"...... She took your hurricane virginity. It was an interesting cyclone-- not just because it was a super-early Cape Verde 'cane, but also the very large RMW at landfall in NC. It is cool that such a nerdy, articulate, educated, pristine and colorful writer, facts and the science of it all person has a soft spot for an omen. You are a well rounded and refined dude. Just sayin! And where the fook is that book! Silly. You getting excited for some action? When a Cat 4 comes barreling toward you this year, perhaps it might inspire you to pen your own hurricane tale of terror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Speaking of virginity, my story began at a young age. I was violently raped by a hurricane and my eyewall was penetrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Josh.... Brief write up about pressures in Carla. http://docs.lib.noaa...094-07-0454.pdf Also has a shot from Brownsville radar. Still haven't came back across that loop of Carla and now thinking it came from images from Brownsville. Need a historical thread like we had on Eastern to keep from clogging things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The 00Z GFS continues to advertise lower pressures as well as a possible area of disturbed weather in the W Caribbean for next week. The NOGAPS as well as Canadian are also 'sniffing' out that area. The operational Euro has suggested a weak disturbance as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the start of tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The 00Z GFS continues to advertise lower pressures as well as a possible area of disturbed weather in the W Caribbean for next week. The NOGAPS as well as Canadian are also 'sniffing' out that area. The operational Euro has suggested a weak disturbance as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the start of tropical season. What's really weird, in both the GFS and Euro, is that it almost looks like more "monsoon" nonsense like we saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 What's really weird, in both the GFS and Euro, is that it almost looks like more "monsoon" nonsense like we saw last year. Omg, don't go there. You'll send me over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Josh.... Brief write up about pressures in Carla. http://docs.lib.noaa...094-07-0454.pdf Also has a shot from Brownsville radar. Still haven't came back across that loop of Carla and now thinking it came from images from Brownsville. Need a historical thread like we had on Eastern to keep from clogging things up. Cool paper-- you always dig up these little treasures. It's interesting that they refer to a concentric-eyewall structure-- way before that phenomenon was really discussed or the term was coined. Also cool are the radar shots; I hadn't seen those two. Stuff like this is perfect for the reanalysis thread: P.S. I wish the darn paper had wind data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 IMBYism, as posted on subforum thread, I think the upper ridge will be too close for anyplace but Mexico in North America the next 10 days or so. That was about much sea breeze activity, but it should hold for any TCs. If anything developed. IMBYism again, I want rain. Ensemble Euro off Alan's site happier, weakness in ridge over my house, with lowest pressures safely down in SW Caribbean. It isn't wildy different from the operational, but so far this Spring GFS seems to have worked out better locally. That low just meanders last few days of op Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Let me know what they say. I don't know if anyone else has done any extensive research on this theory or not. This is what they had to say... Hi Matt: A few years ago our office looked at the correlation of a dry May in South Florida and a hurricane strike in the same area that hurricane season. No strong correlation was found. Thanks for writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 She took your hurricane virginity. It was an interesting cyclone-- not just because it was a super-early Cape Verde 'cane, but also the very large RMW at landfall in NC. Silly. You getting excited for some action? When a Cat 4 comes barreling toward you this year, perhaps it might inspire you to pen your own hurricane tale of terror. Hurricane Belle was my first. Like losing one's virginity to a $5 streetwalker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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