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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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Is that early for this time of year? Won't shear just rip it up anyway?

Yes, and no. Tropical Storm Allison partly originated from a wave that left Africa in May, reached the Pacific, started to develop, got pulled across into the Gulf by a polar low, and became a sub-tropical/tropical storm, and its mid-level remnants rained enough there was a TWC Storm Stories about it.

10 inches behind, roughly, on rain here, but 20 to 30 inches in 2 days might be more than we'd actually want. Six or eight inches, yeah, the usual low spots and Pasadena would flood, but the water table would recharge and I wouldn't have to sprinkle for a week.

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Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen.

We'll always have Bertha as a half decent Cape Verde-ish storm from the first half of July.

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I did some half assed research whenever there was excessive rainfall in our area in the months leading up to the tropical season and what played out for the mid and upper Texas coast a few years back. Think it was before the 08 season. There was a guy on the local forum that had even more extensive stats (rainfall wise.) It wasn't very technical but did have some interesting results.

Of course at this point in our neck of the woods it's a reversal type of mentality with the current drought.

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Oh, I'm not expecting a darn thing way out there anytime before August. It's just nice to see all that fertility in the basin. It's a good omen.

It is cool that such a nerdy, articulate, educated, pristine and colorful writer, facts and the science of it all person has a soft spot for an omen. You are a well rounded and refined dude. :weight_lift:

Just sayin! And where the fook is that book!

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Bertha is special cause she was my "first"......

:wub:

She took your hurricane virginity. :D

It was an interesting cyclone-- not just because it was a super-early Cape Verde 'cane, but also the very large RMW at landfall in NC.

It is cool that such a nerdy, articulate, educated, pristine and colorful writer, facts and the science of it all person has a soft spot for an omen. You are a well rounded and refined dude. :weight_lift:

Just sayin! And where the fook is that book!

:lol:

Silly. :D

You getting excited for some action? When a Cat 4 comes barreling toward you this year, perhaps it might inspire you to pen your own hurricane tale of terror. :sun:

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The 00Z GFS continues to advertise lower pressures as well as a possible area of disturbed weather in the W Caribbean for next week. The NOGAPS as well as Canadian are also 'sniffing' out that area. The operational Euro has suggested a weak disturbance as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the start of tropical season.

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The 00Z GFS continues to advertise lower pressures as well as a possible area of disturbed weather in the W Caribbean for next week. The NOGAPS as well as Canadian are also 'sniffing' out that area. The operational Euro has suggested a weak disturbance as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the start of tropical season.

What's really weird, in both the GFS and Euro, is that it almost looks like more "monsoon" nonsense like we saw last year.

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Josh....

Brief write up about pressures in Carla. http://docs.lib.noaa...094-07-0454.pdf

Also has a shot from Brownsville radar. Still haven't came back across that loop of Carla and now thinking it came from images from Brownsville.

Need a historical thread like we had on Eastern to keep from clogging things up.

Cool paper-- you always dig up these little treasures. It's interesting that they refer to a concentric-eyewall structure-- way before that phenomenon was really discussed or the term was coined. Also cool are the radar shots; I hadn't seen those two.

Stuff like this is perfect for the reanalysis thread:

P.S. I wish the darn paper had wind data!

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IMBYism, as posted on subforum thread, I think the upper ridge will be too close for anyplace but Mexico in North America the next 10 days or so. That was about much sea breeze activity, but it should hold for any TCs.

If anything developed.

IMBYism again, I want rain.

Ensemble Euro off Alan's site happier, weakness in ridge over my house, with lowest pressures safely down in SW Caribbean. It isn't wildy different from the operational, but so far this Spring GFS seems to have worked out better locally.

That low just meanders last few days of op Euro run.

post-138-0-82124800-1306498114.gif

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Let me know what they say. I don't know if anyone else has done any extensive research on this theory or not.

This is what they had to say...

Hi Matt: A few years ago our office looked at the correlation of a dry May in South Florida and a hurricane strike in the same area that hurricane season. No strong correlation was found. Thanks for writing.

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:wub:

She took your hurricane virginity. :D

It was an interesting cyclone-- not just because it was a super-early Cape Verde 'cane, but also the very large RMW at landfall in NC.

:lol:

Silly. :D

You getting excited for some action? When a Cat 4 comes barreling toward you this year, perhaps it might inspire you to pen your own hurricane tale of terror. :sun:

Hurricane Belle was my first. Like losing one's virginity to a $5 streetwalker...

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