wxmx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 US Major Landfalls during +AMO ...and during -AMO. There's the expected overall dampened activity, but notice how hard the activity slumps in the E Coast.. * Note: This is based on latest hurdat 1851-2009. There are some glaring errors in this source, just like showing Gloria as a major landfall in the 2nd graph (best track shows it as a cat2 -shown here- but it's considered a major hit by hurdat, hence the filtering displaying Gloria) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 10 majors within 50mi from Miami from the period 1851-2009... 18 within 75mi.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Matthew explained it shows the general pattern... Why do you believe it doesn't show the general/large scale pattern? The western Atlantic bermuda high is forecasted to be stronger then most of last season. That shows something....You get a trough at 500 mb's centered near 85 west then you have a better chance at getting a east coast season. It is better then Ivanhaters 260 hour gfs that is jsut above my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Why do you believe it doesn't show the general/large scale pattern? The western Atlantic bermuda high is forecasted to be stronger then most of last season. That shows something....You get a trough at 500 mb's centered near 85 west then you have a better chance at getting a east coast season. It is better then Ivanhaters 260 hour gfs that is jsut above my post. A surface pressure map valid in late May, just a snapshot, and a forecasted snapshot at that, doesn't really, really say much about JASO, IMHO. I'm just an amateur, note two different degreed meteorologists also thought it was kind of pointless. They might be better to explain it. 10 day GFS runs are silly as well, although multiple runs valid at the same time suggesting similar features at least shows a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 there has been nothing worth posting about in this thread for the last week...still not sure how you guys are eeking out a conversation about such silly crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 92L has been declared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 92L has been declared... That icep*ssy thing near 28N? Wow-- that caught me by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 That icep*ssy thing near 28N? Wow-- that caught me by surprise. Very asymmetric/comma-shaped. 850mb analysis shows a temperature gradient, but it's very weak with no well-defined front: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_850_temp_ht.gif But it looks like that's because it's mostly an upper-level low induced by a weak jet-streak: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_300_wnd_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_500_vort_ht.gif A surface low is spinning up probably based on the interaction of the upper low with the southern end of a cold front/pressure trough: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 there has been nothing worth posting about in this thread for the last week...still not sure how you guys are eeking out a conversation about such silly crap i still stand by this statement despite the declaration of an invest immediately afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Very asymmetric/comma-shaped. Yep-- that's why I called it what I did. 850mb analysis shows a temperature gradient, but it's very weak with no well-defined front: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_850_temp_ht.gif But it looks like that's because it's mostly an upper-level low induced by a weak jet-streak: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_300_wnd_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_500_vort_ht.gif A surface low is spinning up probably based on the interaction of the upper low with the southern end of a cold front/pressure trough: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110523/12/gfs_atlantic_012_10m_wnd_precip.gif Oooh, Mallowberry's gettin' his tropical-met chops warmed up for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Yep-- that's why I called it what I did. Oooh, Mallowberry's gettin' his tropical-met chops warmed up for the season. I've gots-to think about how to run the tropical forecast this season. Lots of decisions! I'd like to get the "rules" and first month up by the end of the day today, if I can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 i still stand by this statement despite the declaration of an invest immediately afterwards Just NHC getting in some practice for the season/boredom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'm impressed Steve checked the ftp site or NRL Monterrey third week in May without anything super awesome in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'm impressed Steve checked the ftp site or NRL Monterrey third week in May without anything super awesome in the Atlantic. It's not even up on NRL yet. That said: yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 It's not even up on NRL yet. That said: yawn. Yep. Just tryin' to get into that ole routine, you know. Nice warmup for the real season I suppose. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I've gots-to think about how to run the tropical forecast this season. Lots of decisions! I'd like to get the "rules" and first month up by the end of the day today, if I can! Sounds great... looking forward to the competition as it was a lot of fun last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 That is what rainstorm likes to do and it kind of shows the general pattern of things. Anyways that weakness is still "weaker" then what we had to deal with much of last season. I expect that this season will have more western Atlantic ridging and a much more east coast centered trough as the 500 millibar pattern shows in early June on the last page...That is why this season will more likely be like 1996, 1999 with track of the cyclones. It. doesn't deserve crapped on, but explained to rainstorm why a storm might not make it across on the short scale, but the large scale of things is far better then last season. Why do you believe it doesn't show the general/large scale pattern? The western Atlantic bermuda high is forecasted to be stronger then most of last season. That shows something....You get a trough at 500 mb's centered near 85 west then you have a better chance at getting a east coast season. It is better then Ivanhaters 260 hour gfs that is jsut above my post. The problem is hurricanes and other tropical systems are not steered by surface winds, but at winds at various levels in the atmosphere. Its misleading to show a surface map and pretty much describe how the winds around a surface high or low will control where a tropical cyclone is likely to go. Just take an example forecasted surface pressure map at 168 hrs. Note that it seems like you have widespread easterlies that would draw in Atlantic basin tropical cyclones towards the United States. However, just look in the mid to upper levels to see that the 500mb winds are completely opposite of the surface winds. First of all, no tropical cyclone would be able to develop under such a hostile shearing pattern. Second, if you do end up with any sort of vertical depth, the storm will be mainly steered by these upper level winds, which is why they are far more useful to look at than surface pressure in determining where a system might go. You have to think of the system as a vortex that has quite a bit of vertical depth rather than a two-dimensional flat circulation over water. The deeper the tropical cyclone is, the more the circulation will be influenced by upper level winds since part of the circulation extends up to that height in the atmosphere. While I certainly don't expect rainstorm to get the message since he/she is a troll, I hope others that are trying to get some meteorological information out of this thread understand why its not practical to base a tropical cyclone track on surface pressure at any time interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The problem is hurricanes and other tropical systems are not steered by surface winds, but at winds at various levels in the atmosphere. Its misleading to show a surface map and pretty much describe how the winds around a surface high or low will control where a tropical cyclone is likely to go. Just take an example forecasted surface pressure at 168 hrs. Note that it seems like you have widespread easterlies that would draw in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone towards the United States. However, just look in the mid to upper levels to see that the 500mb winds are completely opposite of the surface winds. First of all no tropical cyclone would be able to develop under such a hostile shearing pattern. Second, if you do end up with any sort of vertical depth, the storm will be mainly steered by these upper level winds, which is why they are far more useful to look at than surface pressure in determining where a system might go. You have to think of the system has a vortex that has quite a bit of vertical depth rather than a two-dimensional flat circulation over water. The deeper the tropical cyclone is, the more the circulation will be influenced by upper level winds since part of the circulation extends up to that height in the atmosphere. While I certainly don't expect rainstorm to get the message since he/she is a troll, I hope others that are trying to get some meteorological information out of this thread understand why its not piratical to base a tropical cyclone track on surface pressure at any time interval. Excellent post. I learned a lot from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The problem is hurricanes and other tropical systems are not steered by surface winds, but at winds at various levels in the atmosphere. Its misleading to show a surface map and pretty much describe how the winds around a surface high or low will control where a tropical cyclone is likely to go. Just take an example forecasted surface pressure at 168 hrs. Note that it seems like you have widespread easterlies that would draw in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone towards the United States. However, just look in the mid to upper levels to see that the 500mb winds are completely opposite of the surface winds. First of all no tropical cyclone would be able to develop under such a hostile shearing pattern. Second, if you do end up with any sort of vertical depth, the storm will be mainly steered by these upper level winds, which is why they are far more useful to look at than surface pressure in determining where a system might go. You have to think of the system has a vortex that has quite a bit of vertical depth rather than a two-dimensional flat circulation over water. The deeper the tropical cyclone is, the more the circulation will be influenced by upper level winds since part of the circulation extends up to that height in the atmosphere. While I certainly don't expect rainstorm to get the message since he/she is a troll, I hope others that are trying to get some meteorological information out of this thread understand why its not piratical to base a tropical cyclone track on surface pressure at any time interval. Great post. I understand that the upper levels are what steers tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 FWIW, 92L is receiving Dvorak classifications (subtropical). 24/0545 UTC 27.1N 52.7W ST1.5 92L 23/2345 UTC 27.3N 53.5W ST1.5 92L 23/1745 UTC 28.0N 54.6W ST1.5 92L Also, I would watch the western Caribbean for potential development after Jun 1. The MJO looks favorable and the upper pattern, with a big ridge from the southern Plains into the SE US, supports lowering pressures underneath it over the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 The problem is hurricanes and other tropical systems are not steered by surface winds, but at winds at various levels in the atmosphere. Its misleading to show a surface map and pretty much describe how the winds around a surface high or low will control where a tropical cyclone is likely to go. Just take an example forecasted surface pressure map at 168 hrs. Note that it seems like you have widespread easterlies that would draw in Atlantic basin tropical cyclones towards the United States. However, just look in the mid to upper levels to see that the 500mb winds are completely opposite of the surface winds. First of all, no tropical cyclone would be able to develop under such a hostile shearing pattern. Second, if you do end up with any sort of vertical depth, the storm will be mainly steered by these upper level winds, which is why they are far more useful to look at than surface pressure in determining where a system might go. You have to think of the system as a vortex that has quite a bit of vertical depth rather than a two-dimensional flat circulation over water. The deeper the tropical cyclone is, the more the circulation will be influenced by upper level winds since part of the circulation extends up to that height in the atmosphere. While I certainly don't expect rainstorm to get the message since he/she is a troll, I hope others that are trying to get some meteorological information out of this thread understand why its not practical to base a tropical cyclone track on surface pressure at any time interval. Cool post! Thanks, Phil! FWIW, 92L is receiving Dvorak classifications (subtropical). 24/0545 UTC 27.1N 52.7W ST1.5 92L 23/2345 UTC 27.3N 53.5W ST1.5 92L 23/1745 UTC 28.0N 54.6W ST1.5 92L Also, I would watch the western Caribbean for potential development after Jun 1. The MJO looks favorable and the upper pattern, with a big ridge from the southern Plains into the SE US, supports lowering pressures underneath it over the western Caribbean. Hey, Justin-- nice seeing you dropping by! I'm getting excited about 01 June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 More a pattern thing than an actual TC related thing. One caveat, Euro, so it could easily be wrong (I never used to say that). Cut off 500 mb low migrating Westward in the Gulf, a sign we are getting into Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Does invest 92 have any chances at development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Does invest 92 have any chances at development? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Also, I would watch the western Caribbean for potential development after Jun 1. The MJO looks favorable and the upper pattern, with a big ridge from the southern Plains into the SE US, supports lowering pressures underneath it over the western Caribbean. Looks like the new 12z ECMWF does just that with origins from the Mid Latitudes...perhaps a pv-streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like the new 12z ECMWF does just that with origins from the Mid Latitudes...perhaps a pv-streamer. Oh, hey! How are you? Just in time... It's almost 01 June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Oh, hey! How are you? Just in time... It's almost 01 June. Hey man, I'm doing okay. How have you been? I am looking forward to this season all-around. The ENSO/MJO trends promise to bring a broader range of above normal activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like the new 12z ECMWF does just that with origins from the Mid Latitudes...perhaps a pv-streamer. Is the EURO developing it from the 500 MB low it cuts off near Florida?? and whats a PV streamer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Don't know why they made this a invest. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Euro actually closes off (barely) a weak surface reflection as its 500 mb low moves into Tamaulipas. Hey, its May, gotta talk about something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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