Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 See post 735. It uses concrete examples to debunk this logic. Which is so cool, a 2004 season where Florida gets 4 storms is entirely possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 See post 735. It uses concrete examples to debunk this logic. this? are you talking about my logic or his? HM, on 06 April 2011 - 03:17 PM, said: This made me laugh out loud. By the way, Ed, I got your message man. 1917 is a terrible analog to use for predicting numbers, especially because of the -AMO period that we were estimated to be in at that time. I would stick to +AMO years when it comes to predicting numbers. And on that note, I think it is generally a waste of time predicting total numbers. Well, hello, stranger! Nice to see you dropping by. HM, on 06 April 2011 - 03:17 PM, said: By the way...El Niño fail this summer. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 this? are you talking about my logic or his? By the way...El Niño fail this summer. Cool. I'm talking about the logic of suggesting a location can be "overdue" for a 'cane. P.S. Yeah, let's just hope that remains El Nino fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Yeah, let's just hope that remains El Nino fail. Looking likely so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I'm talking about the logic of suggesting a location can be "overdue" for a 'cane. P.S. Yeah, let's just hope that remains El Nino fail. K, but by that measure then, how do you define 'overdue' at all? If a hitter 'on average' over the course of a career hits a home run every 10 times at bat and hasn't hit one in 50 at bats, would it not be correct to call him 'overdue' for a home run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Looking likely so far... i'm thinking probably neutral to weak nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 K, but by that measure then, how do you define 'overdue' at all? If a hitter 'on average' over the course of a career hits a home run every 10 times at bat and hasn't hit one in 50 at bats, would it not be correct to call him 'overdue' for a home run? each year is an independent event...the atmosphere doesn't know that a place hasn't been hit in forever...it just does what it does, regardless of past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I'm not a casual observer of these things. I'm all or nothing-- meaning I enjoy following basins that I've really studied closely, so that I understand the context of what I'm seeing. There are three basins that I've studied closely-- NATL, EPAC, and AUS. I'm happy with those three. Any more, and my career will suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 K, but by that measure then, how do you define 'overdue' at all? If a hitter 'on average' over the course of a career hits a home run every 10 times at bat and hasn't hit one in 50 at bats, would it not be correct to call him 'overdue' for a home run? My whole point is that there is no such thing as "overdue"-- at least not in a way that offers any insight for assessing the threat to a given location. Tampa Bay is the best example. It hasn't had a major since 1921. So since the 1940s, Tampa residents could have said every year that they're "overdue" for another big 'cane-- and every year for the last 70 years, this would have been a meaningless pronouncement. Tampa is "overdue" this year as well. So is GA-- which hasn't had a major since the 1890s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) ... Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 each year is an independent event...the atmosphere doesn't know that a place hasn't been hit in forever...it just does what it does, regardless of past history. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 My whole point is that there is no such thing as "overdue"-- at least not in a way that offers any insight for assessing the threat to a given location. Tampa Bay is the best example. It hasn't had a major since 1921. So since the 1940s, Tampa residents could have said every year that they're "overdue" for another big 'cane-- and every year for the last 70 years, this would have been a meaningless pronouncement. Tampa is "overdue" this year as well. So is GA-- which hasn't had a major since the 1890s. i hear ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) ... Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 K, but by that measure then, how do you define 'overdue' at all? If a hitter 'on average' over the course of a career hits a home run every 10 times at bat and hasn't hit one in 50 at bats, would it not be correct to call him 'overdue' for a home run? What happened in the past has nothing to do with an independant future event. Pretend we flip a coin and it lands heads. We do this 10x and every time we do it, it lands heads. On our 11th try, it's still a 50% chance. The fact that the coin landed heads 10x in a row has nothing to do with the 11th try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 What happened in the past has nothing to do with an independant future event. Pretend we flip a coin and it lands heads. We do this 10x and every time we do it, it lands heads. On our 11th try, it's still a 50% chance. The fact that the coin landed heads 10x in a row has nothing to do with the 11th try. Agreed. BTW, I think South Florida is overdue for a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Agreed. BTW, I think South Florida is overdue for a Hurricane. LOL. We better get one. That's all I'm going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Agreed. BTW, I think South Florida is overdue for a Hurricane. LOL. We better get one. That's all I'm going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Sorry, I just felt like being a wiseazz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 K, but by that measure then, how do you define 'overdue' at all? If a hitter 'on average' over the course of a career hits a home run every 10 times at bat and hasn't hit one in 50 at bats, would it not be correct to call him 'overdue' for a home run? "Overdue" is just a loose description based on what we know to have occurred in the past. It has no statistical bearing on what is more or less likely to occur in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Agreed. BTW, I think South Florida is overdue for a Hurricane. Yea. And from 1966-1991 there were none in S. Florida. . 27 years between Betsy and Andrew. 1965/1992. Mother Nature delivered Andrew about 20 years late. Also, the odds in any given year (based on statistics) of a hurricane making landfall in S. Florida are around one in 7. This implies that your hurricane is not "due" until 2012. JulianColton noted: "Overdue" is just a loose description based on what we know to have occurred in the past. It has no statistical bearing on what is more or less likely to occur in the future. Actually it has a very definite statistical bearing; but limited to that. Statistical studies study what did happen in the past; and is one indicator of what might happen, on average, in the future. What it doesn't have is a bearing in reality; until maybe after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Sorry, I just felt like being a wiseazz. Yea, so did I. It's an honor getting my first weenie tag of the year from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 The CONUS is overdue for a SS scale major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 LOL. We better get one. That's all I'm going to say. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Take your pick. Picks a hybrid of both. Andrews track and strength with floyds size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Picks a hybrid of both. Andrews track and strength with floyds size. with isabel's pentagram in the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Oklahoma is overdue for a major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The return periods reflect the frequency with which the eye of a storm passes through a particular coastline segment. The storm eye is easy to track but is only one aspect of a storm that must be considered when determining its impact. The storm (and storm surge) may extend 50 or more miles from the center. . The correlation of occurrence and hurricane category is not a design tool but should be used as an indicator of the frequency with which one may expect the potential damage, flooding, and wind conditions in an area of interest. he number in parentheses is the landfall occurrences of hurricane eye for each 50 nautical mile segment during the 113-year period from 1886 to 1999 . The number in parentheses is the landfall occurrences of hurricane eye for each 50 nautical mile segment during the 113-year period from 1886 to 1999 Figure C.1. Return period of Category 1 or greater hurricanes along the Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 sassy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 sassy I know. I shouldn't do that-- I don't know what came over me. I apologized to those guys. P.S. I hope all you Floridians get raked by a good one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I know. I shouldn't do that-- I don't know what came over me. I apologized to those guys. P.S. I hope all you Floridians get raked by a good one this year. I thought it was funny. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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