MJW155 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 The amount of uncertainty is useful for their customers for planning purposes. Shipping, commerce, travel industries, etc should know how much confidence is had or what range can be expected in a certain outlook for seasonal weather consideration planning. Well I think the range tries to quantify the uncertainty. It is stated up front that NOAA expects the range to verify 70% of the time. I think the size of the range is controlled by uncertainty, but also for this forecast (and any others that show a high probability of an active season) that active seasons have quite a range in the potential numbers and could still verify. For example, 1999 was a rather busy year with long-lived hurricanes and 5 majors. However, there were only 12 total named storms then. I think it is pretty difficult to know whether an active season will be one of these that has just a few more storms than hurricanes (96 or 99), or whether it is more like 08 or 95/10 with well above normal Named storms. It is easier in August I think to narrow the ranges as the ENSO uncertainty is less with the tropical Atlantic SST forecast basically being persistence, plus the June/July upper wind anomalies and sea level pressures mean a lot. Thanks guys. It sounds like predicting # of hurricane days is as important as predicting actual # of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 it appears JB's free blog is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 it appears JB's free blog is gone. they are going to be charging 17 bucs a month now i believe..while steep, its better than the accuweather price (if you payed for JB's services) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 why would anyone pay for that crap when they can just read rainstorm and art rosen here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 why would anyone pay for that crap when they can just read rainstorm and art rosen here? and free 168hr gfs panels and LC quotes posted daily, you can't beat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 why would anyone pay for that crap when they can just read rainstorm and art rosen here? i may start charging soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 think we're in for a bad one this year, overdue for some east coast landing bombs, central mid-atlantic/ entire florida east coast / eastern gulf / se new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 think we're in for a bad one this year, overdue for some east coast landing bombs, central mid-atlantic/ entire florida east coast / eastern gulf / se new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 here we go with the "overdue" nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 why so funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I would just like to say that I am hoping for a very active year for the simple reason that I miss 2005. Now before you label me a complete weenie, hear me out. I have always followed hurricanes but never had the in-depth analysis tools I have now. Nor did I frequent boards like this one. There is imagery like the rapid scan visibles that I am aware of now, and I have a reference point for whether a season is active. In short, I really just got cranking towards the end of 2005 and have been hoping for a real slammin-and-jammin season to try out all my new tools. Perhaps that is how others here feel. We also have a lot of new tools with the explosion of new storm chasers with live video the last few years, thanks to the spread of 3G and higher wireless broadband speeds. That simply didn't exist in 2005 like it does today. I'm interested to see how all the preparation turns out when we get another Camille/Katrina-like system impacting a populated area. Plus, it's plain to see that the new AmericanWX board is a lot better than the old Eastern board. I don't know exactly why, but it seems to flow better and the comments are more useful. Less senseless insults and more science, FTW. Thanks, mods! All in all, I think we just plain need a good active season or at least a lot of landfalls so we can all get some exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 why so funny? Because nothing is overdue. If there is a 10% chance, there's a 10% chance. It doesn't go up to 20% the following year, 30%, 40% etc. My area gets 48 storms every 100 years. Wilma was the last hurricane. That doesn't mean I have something like a 90% chance of getting a hurricane because I'm "overdue." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 i may start charging soon. NOOO!!! We enjoy your insightful post. Keep up the good work rainstorm. In my opinion it does make some sense as in if there is a trough(low pressure) instead of a ridge over the western Atlantic it will likely recurve storms out to sea and if there is a bermuda high than that is what we want to see. You point that out for us. Also when there is a heat wave in Europe=ridging over europe. That can mean a trough is somewhere within the Atlantic recurving storms out to sea. So that is not wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 think we're in for a bad one this year, overdue for some east coast landing bombs, central mid-atlantic/ entire florida east coast / eastern gulf / se new england I agree with your track thinking. 1999 appears to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 I don't believe in the "overdue" thing, either. Actually, what you see looking across history is the opposite-- that certain regions get pounded repeatedly over relatively short periods, and then go long periods (sometimes as much as a century) without much action: * GA/SC 1890s. None of us can even remember the last time GA had a hurricane impact. Well, it was raked by several intense hurricanes-- including a Cat 4-- in this single decade. Since then? Almost nada. * FL's Gold Coast 1945-1950. This densely-populated portion of the FL coast was pounded by multiple Cat 4s in this period, with a major 'cane every year. But after that, with the possible exception of Cleo 1964 (which I'm reanalyzing and which might have been a Cat 3), the SE FL metroplex went 42 years without a major hurricane. * Mid-Atlantic/Northeast 1938-1960. This region got pounded again and again over a couple of decades. But it had almost zero action for many decades before this period, and for a quarter century after. (Belle 1976 barely dented a long dry spell.) * Pensacola, FL 1995-2005. Pensacola had gone almost a century without a serious hurricane impact until Opal 1995-- and then it had a few significant hits in the space of a decade. Tampa Bay last had a major in 1921-- so I guess they've been "overdue" for a good 80 years. The bottom line is that using the "overdue" logic to predict threats doesn't make sense-- it assumes some sort of regularity to hurricane landfalls, when in reality, they happen in random regional spurts. A big landfall in your area doesn't mean you're "safe" for a while-- it more likely means you'll be seeing another threat within the next couple of years. The mid-to-late 1990s seemed to be a NC period, and the mid-to-late 2000s seem to have been a Gulf Coast period. The burning question in my mind: are we still in a Gulf Coast phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I don't believe in the "overdue" thing, either. The burning question in my mind: are we still in a Gulf Coast phase? I think so, however that doesn't necessarily mean much. 09 and 10 were rather benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 I think so, however that doesn't necessarily mean much. 09 and 10 were rather benign. Doesn't mean much? It depends on your perspective. To me, it does-- and I think it does to a lot of people here, since we spend a lot of time discussing where hurricanes might strike. But obviously nothing is guaranteed on a given year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I find it hilarious that people are actually getting paid to "forecast" this stuff... much like long range climate forecasting... Just look at the numbers: (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) Averages - 15/8/4 NOAA - 12-18/6-10/3-6 WSI - 15/8/4 CSU - 16/9/5 Notice a trend? They're all forecasting AVERAGE How is NOAA calling this above average??? And the number of storms means absolutely nothing anyways as there have been many years with tons of storms/few landfalls and years with not many storms/devastating landfalls. The whole thing just seems like a massive waste of time and resources if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Notice a trend? They're all forecasting AVERAGE Actually, they're all forecasting above average. Longterm NATL average = 11/6/2. (This having been said, the forecasts are closer to average for the post-1994 busy cycle we're currently in.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I find it hilarious that people are actually getting paid to "forecast" this stuff... much like long range climate forecasting... Just look at the numbers: (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) Averages - 15/8/4 NOAA - 12-18/6-10/3-6 WSI - 15/8/4 CSU - 16/9/5 Notice a trend? They're all forecasting AVERAGE How is NOAA calling this above average??? And the number of storms means absolutely nothing anyways as there have been many years with tons of storms/few landfalls and years with not many storms/devastating landfalls. The whole thing just seems like a massive waste of time and resources if you ask me. The average is like 11.5 NS a year over the long-term, no? This has been discussed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I find it hilarious that people are actually getting paid to "forecast" this stuff... much like long range climate forecasting... Just look at the numbers: (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) Averages - 15/8/4 NOAA - 12-18/6-10/3-6 WSI - 15/8/4 CSU - 16/9/5 Notice a trend? They're all forecasting AVERAGE How is NOAA calling this above average??? And the number of storms means absolutely nothing anyways as there have been many years with tons of storms/few landfalls and years with not many storms/devastating landfalls. The whole thing just seems like a massive waste of time and resources if you ask me. Probably no more than mohair subsidies, and how many weather forums discuss wool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Let's stay on topic. No politics, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Let's stay on topic. No politics, please. Just saying we wouldn't have much to discuss post Australia without people releasing their pre-season forecasts, and I picked a subject, Mohair subsidies, that was criticized by a Utah Republican and a New York Democrat, making it as bipartisan as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 BTW, I know you may not be exactly Kush in the WestPac, but there may or may not be a strengthening tropical depression menacing the Philippines, and you're discussing generally average to slighlty above forecast numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Just saying we wouldn't have much to discuss post Australia without people releasing their pre-season forecasts, and I picked a subject, Mohair subsidies, that was criticized by a Utah Republican and a New York Democrat, making it as bipartisan as possible. Gotcha-- no harm done. I just wanted to cut off any wrong turns. Back on topic, I don't think anywhere is owed a hurricane-- however, I sense the Gulf Coast might still be at greater risk, simply because we seem to be in a Gulf Coast cycle that started in the mid-2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 BTW, I know you may not be exactly Kush in the WestPac, but there may or may not be a strengthening tropical depression menacing the Philippines, and you're discussing generally average to slighlty above forecast numbers? I'm not a casual observer of these things. I'm all or nothing-- meaning I enjoy following basins that I've really studied closely, so that I understand the context of what I'm seeing. There are three basins that I've studied closely-- NATL, EPAC, and AUS. I'm happy with those three. Any more, and my career will suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I don't know how well this will work out, but it appears sound from appearance, and where seems more important to me than how many. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18712-spring-pattern-hinting-at-2011-east-coast-hurricane-landfall-potential/ I have heard 2008 as an analog, but I think that is more ENSO state than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I find it hilarious that people are actually getting paid to "forecast" this stuff... much like long range climate forecasting... Just look at the numbers: (Storms/Named Storms/Strong Storms) Averages - 15/8/4 NOAA - 12-18/6-10/3-6 WSI - 15/8/4 CSU - 16/9/5 Notice a trend? They're all forecasting AVERAGE How is NOAA calling this above average??? And the number of storms means absolutely nothing anyways as there have been many years with tons of storms/few landfalls and years with not many storms/devastating landfalls. The whole thing just seems like a massive waste of time and resources if you ask me. Probably best you stick to what you know then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Because nothing is overdue. If there is a 10% chance, there's a 10% chance. It doesn't go up to 20% the following year, 30%, 40% etc. My area gets 48 storms every 100 years. Wilma was the last hurricane. That doesn't mean I have something like a 90% chance of getting a hurricane because I'm "overdue." No, however using your own statistics if you average 48 storms in 100 years and the last 90 years you've had 3.....you would be in most senses of the word, "overdue". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 No, but to use your own argument if you average 48 storms in 100 years and the last 90 years you've had 3.....you would be in most senses of the word, "overdue". See post 735. It uses concrete examples to debunk this logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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