rainstorm Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 JB: top 5-10 impact season coming up. be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 JB: top 5-10 impact season coming up. be prepared. I'll get ready now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 JB: top 5-10 impact season coming up. be prepared. It's hard to take him seriously, since every utterance is a perfectly prepared soundbyte engineered to generate buzz and site traffic. Every season-- and I mean every season-- he says dramatic stuff like this. I would be freaked out if for once he said, "It's going to be a slow season, and the USA and New England should sail through it easy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It's hard to take him seriously, since every utterance is a perfectly prepared soundbyte engineered to generate buzz and site traffic. Every season-- and I mean every season-- he says dramatic stuff like this. I would be freaked out if for once he said, "It's going to be a slow season, and the USA and New England should sail through it easy." he does hype alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 he does hype alot. Yea J.B cries wolf ever year. If someone like LC said a high impact season is likely, I would take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He called for a normal season once a few years ago, so armageddon versus normal season is like only 14 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He called for a normal season once a few years ago, so armageddon versus normal season is like only 14 to 1. I sure wouldn't put much stock into his seasonal forecast after last season. I'd agree with the people that think 1999, 2008 is the closes set-up to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Lover 89 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Totally lost here, so hurricanes and tropical depressions are likely to develop during June? Would make sense since it only gets warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Totally lost here, so hurricanes and tropical depressions are likely to develop during June? Would make sense since it only gets warmer. No, I wouldn't say they are likely. On average, we get one storm every two years or so. Sea surface temperatures are plenty warm to support development, but we'll need a good synoptic set up for genesis to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Totally lost here, so hurricanes and tropical depressions are likely to develop during June? Would make sense since it only gets warmer. Conditons within the western Caribbean and gulf become more favorable as you go into June. Normally. May can have some weaker systems and have had even hurricanes before, but much rarer then June. 2010- Alex June 25th 2009-one, May 28th, but ana didn't form until August 2008-Aurther, May 31st. 2007-Andrea, May 9th, but barry the first tropical like system was June 1st. 2006-Alberto, June 10th 2005-Arlene, June 8th 2004-Alex, July 31st 2003-Ana, April 21st and two June 11th 2002-Arther, July 14th 2001-Alison, June 5th 2000-one, June 7th, Alberto August 4th... 1999-Arlene, June 11th... You can get one in May, but the environment sucks 95 percent of the time. If you look at a graph you will see that from the period from the 1 to about the 12th of June has far more storms than the 15th to 27th of May time frame. Here is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Lover 89 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Thanks for the chart and info guys, so awesome it fascinates me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Looking at that chart, hint of a touch more action late June than July, than clearly a small peak in later October, I'm guessing that is because of systems of non-tropical origin. The last major to landfall in the HGX CWA, way, way back in 1983 was an August system that wasn't tropical in origin, so non-tropical origin can happen anytime during the season, but I would figure late Spring/early Summer and late Summer/early Autumn would have a better chance of a system from the mid-latitudes making it down towards the tropics or sub-tropics and getting stuck. I was in Orlando in 1983, missed all the action, but a mid-Summer system of polar origin, and a (barely) major one at that, that is sort of impressive, as I'm pretty sure I read the vast majority of majors in the Atlantic develop from tropical waves. Of course, I'm not sure how one defines it when a tropical wave gets entrained into a cold low and the resulting system eventually takes on tropical features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Looking at that chart, hint of a touch more action late June than July, than clearly a small peak in later October, I'm guessing that is because of systems of non-tropical origin. The last major to landfall in the HGX CWA, way, way back in 1983 was an August system that wasn't tropical in origin, so non-tropical origin can happen anytime during the season, but I would figure late Spring/early Summer and late Summer/early Autumn would have a better chance of a system from the mid-latitudes making it down towards the tropics or sub-tropics and getting stuck. I was in Orlando in 1983, missed all the action, but a mid-Summer system of polar origin, and a (barely) major one at that, that is sort of impressive, as I'm pretty sure I read the vast majority of majors in the Atlantic develop from tropical waves. Of course, I'm not sure how one defines it when a tropical wave gets entrained into a cold low and the resulting system eventually takes on tropical features. I think 99% in here realize that August / September / October is the real season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 SST's should warm steadily over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 SST's should warm steadily over the next week or so. 25 to 60 knots of shear across the entire basin except the extreme SW corner of the Caribbean per the GFS the next week, and unfavorable mean layer humidity, but at least SST wise, half of Florida is now in the yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 PSU predicts an active season. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html J.B. talks about an early start to the Cane season. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 NOAA Releases 2011 NATL Hurricane Outlook... Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year: 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which: 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including: 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher) Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. http://www.noaanews....aneoutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Nice. A healthy, robust set of ranges there. The very low end of each range is above average. I'm cool with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Nice. A healthy, robust set of ranges there. The very low end of each range is above average. I'm cool with this. They do give themselves a fairly large range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I like the informational reality of this statement in their forecast; as it puts any soothsayer's "forecasts" of landfall probability in their place, in fantasy-land. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches Bill Gray's forecasts for many years also made this statement; until the year insurance company concerns began funding his research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 TCHP has really shot up in the Caribbean over the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 They do give themselves a fairly large range. The range given isn't for them, it's for their customers. It's showing the amount of uncertainty they have in the outlook. It's also the same amount of uncertainty CSU has in their 2011 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The range given isn't for them, it's for their customers. It's showing the amount of uncertainty they have in the outlook. It's also the same amount of uncertainty CSU has in their 2011 outlook. Is having a range really neccessary? Everyone knows when hurricane season is and you always have time to follow/prepare. I mean yea, something could spin up quick and move inland in 24 hours but that's not really a long term forecast. I like seeing a range for entertainment purposes, but don't really understand how it's that practical other than insurance purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Is having a range really neccessary? Everyone knows when hurricane season is and you always have time to follow/prepare. I mean yea, something could spin up quick and move inland in 24 hours but that's not really a long term forecast. I like seeing a range for entertainment purposes, but don't really understand how it's that practical other than insurance purposes. Without the offseason guess how many storm predictions, the main forum would be a lonely place from the end of Australian season until late May. I like the analogs. Nobody has given me 2004, my favorite hurricane season of all time, as an analog yet, and I don't know enough about the long term climate stuff, aka HM, to dive deep into the indices and QBO and Kelvin waves and make one, so the guess how many storms and the season analog threads gives me something to do during the slow season. The fact that the projections are generally falling in the same camp suggests it isn't pure guess work, and there are some identifiable signals, and if any groups are using different methodologies to reach similar conclusions, that becomes very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Is having a range really neccessary? Everyone knows when hurricane season is and you always have time to follow/prepare. I mean yea, something could spin up quick and move inland in 24 hours but that's not really a long term forecast. I like seeing a range for entertainment purposes, but don't really understand how it's that practical other than insurance purposes. The amount of uncertainty is useful for their customers for planning purposes. Shipping, commerce, travel industries, etc should know how much confidence is had or what range can be expected in a certain outlook for seasonal weather consideration planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 here comes the isohume NWS defense force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 here comes the isohume NWS defense force Just stating some facts. Not sure why it's construed as defensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Is having a range really neccessary? Everyone knows when hurricane season is and you always have time to follow/prepare. I mean yea, something could spin up quick and move inland in 24 hours but that's not really a long term forecast. I like seeing a range for entertainment purposes, but don't really understand how it's that practical other than insurance purposes. Well I think the range tries to quantify the uncertainty. It is stated up front that NOAA expects the range to verify 70% of the time. I think the size of the range is controlled by uncertainty, but also for this forecast (and any others that show a high probability of an active season) that active seasons have quite a range in the potential numbers and could still verify. For example, 1999 was a rather busy year with long-lived hurricanes and 5 majors. However, there were only 12 total named storms then. I think it is pretty difficult to know whether an active season will be one of these that has just a few more storms than hurricanes (96 or 99), or whether it is more like 08 or 95/10 with well above normal Named storms. It is easier in August I think to narrow the ranges as the ENSO uncertainty is less with the tropical Atlantic SST forecast basically being persistence, plus the June/July upper wind anomalies and sea level pressures mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011051918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr much better pattern. can it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr much better pattern. can it hold? I expect a good part of this season will look like that unlike what we had last. Nothing holds in place at all times, but things are looking up this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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