Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Wow. That is insane that folks build homes in that kind of a setup! WTF? Talk about asking for it. If I'm pushing 80, and I have to wear Depends because my body is failing me, it;ll be tempting to go to the newly rebuilt House of Popo in Jamaica Beach with rum, a blender, ice and fruit juices, and a computer with WiFi connection, and I happen to die in a 15 foot storm surge and my body becomes crab food, well, there are worse ways to go. And look, in a Cat 2 hurricane like Ike, it isn't even suicide, as chances of survival seem close to 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 If I'm pushing 80, and I have to wear Depends because my body is failing me, it;ll be tempting to go to the newly rebuilt House of Popo in Jamaica Beach with rum, a blender, ice and fruit juices, and a computer with WiFi connection, and I happen to die in a 15 foot storm surge and my body becomes crab food, well, there are worse ways to go. And look, in a Cat 2 hurricane like Ike, it isn't even suicide, as chances of survival seem close to 50% You should run for office in Galveston. Definitely would fit in with the ignorance that they showed as Ike approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 This thread just got started in a big way, can't wait for hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 You should run for office in Galveston. Definitely would fit in with the ignorance that they showed as Ike approached. Read the entire post, or just humor challenged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Read the entire post, or just humor challenged? KHOU needs you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 This thread just got started in a big way, can't wait for hurricane season! Welcome back. KHOU needs you.... Oh, hey! 'Sup, dude?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Oh, hey! 'Sup, dude?? I'm already in desperation mode. Scanning every 384 GFS panel for the hint of something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 I'm already in desperation mode. Scanning every 384 GFS panel for the hint of something... Dude. Get hep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Dude. Get hep. I'd be perfectly happy if my ABC theory worked out and we didn't meet up till September. That might be another few years when that cat five I'm predicting hits the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Just preference, a June or July (or two) tropical storms or minimal hurricanes, a little thread action, drought relief, and used up OHC in the NW Gulf. I want 2004 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 12Z GFS has weak and competing features either side of Central America in a week. I'd guess, based on time of year, if either went, it'd be in the East Pac. East Pac feature has better mean relative humidity and a little more friendly looking shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 KHOU needs you.... It hasn't been the same since you and Ed chased BB away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 It hasn't been the same since you and Ed chased BB away... Have there been tensions among the Texan tropical dudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It hasn't been the same since you and Ed chased BB away... I put BiggerByte on ignore, per your suggestion. I had nothing to do with him leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Have there been tensions among the Texan tropical dudes? You know how people complain about some AmWx posters as being weenies and/or idiots? Bigger Byte was that to a thousand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 The sitting in my Depends when I'm 80 drinking rum, ice and juice drinks from a blender, surfing the weather boards and waiting for the 15 foot storm surge to turn me to crab food, wasn't meant as a recommendation to anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Wow. That is insane that folks build homes in that kind of a setup! WTF? Talk about asking for it. Have you ever been in the keys? I go down there every few months and I can't believe some of the houses I see. Some of the keys are only 2 or 300 yards wide w/ a $2,000,000 house on it. Insane. And they don't even evacuate half the time. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Have you ever been in the keys? I go down there every few months and I can't believe some of the houses I see. Some of the keys are only 2 or 300 yards wide w/ a $2,000,000 house on it. Insane. And they don't even evacuate half the time. LOL. I've never been there, but I'd like to go. I've heard exactly that-- that there's all this fancy, hyper-exposed property. Just wait until a 1935 redux or another Donna 1960. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I've never been there, but I'd like to go. I've heard exactly that-- that there's all this fancy, hyper-exposed property. Just wait until a 1935 redux or another Donna 1960. Ugh. I don't even remember the storm now, just a few years back, but Monroe County did mando evacs, a huge percentage of the regulars stayed, and the storm was a little less than expected, only minor flooding. A storm better look like a Cat 5 from 2 or 3 days away or mortality in the Keys could be rather high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I don't even remember the storm now, just a few years back, but Monroe County did mando evacs, a huge percentage of the regulars stayed, and the storm was a little less than expected, only minor flooding. A storm better look like a Cat 5 from 2 or 3 days away or mortality in the Keys could be rather high. That could be said for most storms that pass near/over the Keys. Wilma did seem to 'wake up' the Conch's, but years have passed since 05. Meanwhile, another potential wave has exited off the African Coast. It's good to see things progressing as they should this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It hasn't been the same since you and Ed chased BB away... Don't worry. He will be back. Plus you still have to deal with the MPHI map guy who will try and scare everyone claiming how hot the water is and that almost every threat could be a monster in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I'll be in here a lot more often then last year. Can't offer much in-depth analysis, but I'll gladly post warnings, tracks, etc... Hoping for a busy season and the chance to get to know some of yall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 take the KHOU talk to whatever KHOU's DBM is k thx bai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 take the KHOU talk to whatever KHOU's DBM is k thx bai Jealous because we have the best local TV station weather forum in America. And Steve is master of the weather forum admins. KHOU-TV 11- Dr. Neil Frank and Dr. Gene Norman talk TS Hermine... http://www.khou.com/video?id=102317084&sec=548547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 This really is a perfect synoptic set up for preseason/early season development in the Western Caribbean, but there isn't a disturbance available to spin up. Could have fooled me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 i was wondering why the west carib would be favorable with low pressure dominating the west atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Could have fooled me The main trough is digging a bit too far south towards Jamaica today, but yesterday, shear was below 20 kts in the SW Caribbean and will be again by tomorrow afternoon, there is a cutoff low over the southeast, creating an area of natural shear vorticity in the mid-levels, and the MJO is providing favorable divergence aloft. The only thing missing is a tropical wave to spin up. I'm not sure what more you could ask for on May 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 i was wondering why the west carib would be favorable with low pressure dominating the west atlantic. I don't expect anything until at least June. You need a favorable environment for at least a few days or more to get something to spin up and that is not going to occur. Wait until June...Yes am19psu it is more favorable then what is normal, but 20 knots within a 40 knot period of wind shear is not very favorable. Normal for May 17th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 You need a favorable environment for at least a few days or more to get something to spin up and that is not going to occur. Wait until June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I don't expect anything until at least June. You need a favorable environment for at least a few days or more to get something to spin up and that is not going to occur. Wait until June...Yes am19psu it is more favorable then what is normal, but 20 knots within a 40 knot period of wind shear is not very favorable. Normal for May 17th... It's obviously not an ideal scenario for deep tropical development (like you would see in Aug or Sep), but much, much better than climo for May 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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