Srain Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 An early indicator that the NALT 2011 Tropical Season is getting closer... ...TROPICAL WAVE... THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr through late may pattern is still horrible. huge neg NAO. that will have to reverse if this season has any chance to be better than last years snooze. A negative NAO allows for a more westward bermuda high, which acts to steer north atlantic tc's toward the southern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr through late may pattern is still horrible. huge neg NAO. that will have to reverse if this season has any chance to be better than last years snooze. Looks better then most of last season at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 An early indicator that the NALT 2011 Tropical Season is getting closer... ...TROPICAL WAVE... THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. Ooh, very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 A negative NAO allows for a more westward bermuda high, which acts to steer north atlantic tc's toward the southern U.S. nothing would move west and hit the coast from florida north with that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 nothing would move west and hit the coast from florida north with that pattern. Now, now, rainstorm-- I want you to think positively this season, or we'll never get a good cyclone in the Lower 48. Ya hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Now, now, rainstorm-- I want you to think positively this season, or we'll never get a good cyclone in the Lower 48. Ya hear? Yes, kinda early for Rainstorm to start the Troll patrol. I like the mention of the first tropical wave of the season, thinking nothing but positive thoughts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yes, kinda early for Rainstorm to start the Troll patrol. I like the mention of the first tropical wave of the season, thinking nothing but positive thoughts!!! Yeah, it kind of made me feel warm and fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yeah, it kind of made me feel warm and fuzzy. I figured it would peak your interest. On another note ,NOAA will be releasing its hurricane forecast this week. It will be Interesting to see what they predict, I will say 12-16 will be the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yeah, it kind of made me feel warm and fuzzy. dude, you ALWAYS feel warm and fuzzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Now, now, rainstorm-- I want you to think positively this season, or we'll never get a good cyclone in the Lower 48. Ya hear? ill be positive when the NAO locks into positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 I figured it would peak your interest. On another note ,NOAA will be releasing its hurricane forecast this week. It will be Interesting to see what they predict, I will say 12-16 will be the range. Oh, cool-- I forgot about that. Will be interesting to see what they say. dude, you ALWAYS feel warm and fuzzy ill be positive when the NAO locks into positive. I'm going to hold you to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Oh, cool-- I forgot about that. Will be interesting to see what they say. I'm going to hold you to that... LC said he is taking this weekend off to recharge for tropical troubles ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 LC said he is taking this weekend off to recharge for tropical troubles ahead. so he's still banging the early storm drum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 ill be positive when the NAO locks into positive. I think chances are fair that the pattern will switch unlike last season by mid June to more positive nao. ON your model there appears to be some increase within the heights throughout the 20-30 north area within the western Atlantic. Not the monster hole of a weakness we seen last seen. I wouldn't wait up for early action, but normally we get one in early june. Stay positive rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 New EUROSIP came out today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I'm liking the MSLP anamoly for the Western Basin during JJA via the EUROSIP. That bodes well for some early action in that part of the Basin. Also, the Caribbean looks promising during the JAS timeframe as well if the EUROSIP is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 That being said.. favorable local areas for warmth developing would be conducive to sudden deepening of storms. A year when OVERALL NUMBERS SHOULD BE DOWN, but the threat to the US coast up, and in addition the chance for rapid development of storms. I aint Fooling on the Global Cooling By Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 He always manages to be provocative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 That being said.. favorable local areas for warmth developing would be conducive to sudden deepening of storms. A year when OVERALL NUMBERS SHOULD BE DOWN, but the threat to the US coast up, and in addition the chance for rapid development of storms. I aint Fooling on the Global Cooling By Joe Bastardi I agree with Joe Bastardi...This season should have far less storms, but more landfalls. Reminds me of 1999, which like this seasonn had a nina that lasted kind of two seasons...Remember the 1998 nino weaken into a nina by late season and 1999 was kind of a second year to that. Also 2008 nina was weakening much like this one and so is close with the Enso to this season in some ways. So a 1999 or 2008 like season is what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 This really is a perfect synoptic set up for preseason/early season development in the Western Caribbean, but there isn't a disturbance available to spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Two weeks away, and already Florida has comfortable water for bathing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 This really is a perfect synoptic set up for preseason/early season development in the Western Caribbean, but there isn't a disturbance available to spin up. I wonder if this hurricane won't be a repeat of what everything else meteorologically has been this year. Something that starts off really badly and then just fizzles out. Winter did that. It looks like the tornado season is doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I wonder if this hurricane won't be a repeat of what everything else meteorologically has been this year. Something that starts off really badly and then just fizzles out. Winter did that. It looks like the tornado season is doing that. Some speculation if the ENSO does change during the season there could be an early end. But if you're IMBY, with a couple of exceptions, one notable, most not, the Autumnal Equinox is the end of the season, and then its time to look for the next East Pac Hurricane Rosa for October excitement anyway, and an ENSO becoming more favorable for the East Pac and less favorable for the ATL is actually a good thing. Glass three quarters, I always say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I wonder if this hurricane won't be a repeat of what everything else meteorologically has been this year. Something that starts off really badly and then just fizzles out. Winter did that. It looks like the tornado season is doing that. Tornado season started out awfully slowly. And the trajectory of winter you described may be true for your slice of the east coast, but elsewhere it was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Tornado season started out awfully slowly. And the trajectory of winter you described may be true for your slice of the east coast, but elsewhere it was different. Art will bring unique insights to the tropical threads this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 lol I wonder if this hurricane won't be a repeat of what everything else meteorologically has been this year. Something that starts off really badly and then just fizzles out. Winter did that. It looks like the tornado season is doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Stiltsville I was in Miami this weekend and we rented a boat to cruise around Biscayne Bay, Key Biscayne, and Virginia Key. We rode a couple miles and came acroos a place known as "Stiltsville" This would be the ultimate location to stage for an incoming hurricane to South Florida. Of course you must have total disregard for your safety to do so. Stiltsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Stiltsville I was in Miami this weekend and we rented a boat to cruise around Biscayne Bay, Key Biscayne, and Virginia Key. We rode a couple miles and came acroos a place known as "Stiltsville" This would be the ultimate location to stage for an incoming hurricane to South Florida. Of course you must have total disregard for your safety to do so. Stiltsville Wow. That is insane that folks build homes in that kind of a setup! WTF? Talk about asking for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 nothing would move west and hit the coast from florida north with that pattern. The important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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