rainstorm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Im guessing thats just a cold core nontropical system that has no chance to become tropical and will just sit and spin off the east coast for a while. the west atlantic is totally dominated by low pressure. nothing is going to develop in the west carib until that reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Since it's going to move northward on a front(frontal low). I'd say likely it won't be tropical...Of course we have seen systems split off and sit for days only to become tropical, but not likely over 65f waters. http://www.ssd.noaa....nwatl/avn-l.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 the west atlantic is totally dominated by low pressure. nothing is going to develop in the west carib until that reverses. I think the more important question as we approach the start of the season is when are you gonna get five posted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Future Arlene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 that would make LC a genius, but with a low north of it instead of a high its a little suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Posting the NAM can make Adam, my favorite green tagged met, (ormaybe its B-I or Wooostah_Wx) upset sometimes, I think. 0Z GFS has lowering pressure and some vorticity in the Eastern Caribbean as well, but besides climatology, the 0Z GFS shows the wave coming off South America (noted 700 mb moisture surge) and apparently headed for absolutely destructive shear. But the model supports rainstorm's LC idea of an early season of ITCZ related happiness coming into the Caribbean. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Not that I'm really buying off on this threat yet (I'll devote a lot more time to it tomorrow), but that H500 pattern is decent for early season development over the Western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Not that I'm really buying off on this threat yet (I'll devote a lot more time to it tomorrow), but that H500 pattern is decent for early season development over the Western Caribbean. Climatology suggests that as well for late May/early June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Climatology suggests that as well for late May/early June... Yes, Climatology argues against such a event in mid May, but climatology has been busted many times within the past 10 years. It is something to be watched as the gfs is now on board with lowering surface pressures. I'd say the unfavorablity of the eastern Caribbean during this time of the year should make it improbable, but we have been surprised before. LC was right about there being NO landfalling hurricanes (I believe that was one of his forecast), but wrong with the amount of storms last season. I believe it was 12 and we had 19. This time of the year it is a complete wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 LC was right about there being NO landfalling hurricanes (I believe that was one of his forecast), but wrong with the amount of storms last season. I believe it was 12 and we had 19. Yes, but only one of those forecasts indicates skill or lack thereof. The other is a stochastic process, at least as far as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 climatology has been busted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Is it possible for this to briefly become subtropical because it does become warmcore for a while.Windshear isn't that high but im guessing the sst's are too cool to support development.Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Not that I'm really buying off on this threat yet (I'll devote a lot more time to it tomorrow), but that H500 pattern is decent for early season development over the Western Caribbean. Looking at everything a bit closer, the teleconnections do argue for favorable environmental conditions over the Western Caribbean in 8-10 days. Troughing over the Eastern U.S. is usually favorable for development due south of the trough axis due to the col and shear vorticity maximum that sets up between the westerlies at the base of the trough and the tropical easterlies. Add in the MJO pulse coming through in that time period and the ingredients are there for development. Of course, climatology strongly argues against it. I wouldn't give anything more than a 5-10% chance at this point. Still it's worth keeping an eye on for nothing else than a reminder that the season is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 ^ That all time great tropical model the CMC is sniffing something near Jamaica... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 It looks like the CFS may be picking up on increased convection potential near Central America around the end of May and beginning of June. Even if there is no organized development for the Western Caribbean,it may be a signal for EPAC potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 It looks like the CFS may be picking up on increased convection potential near Central America around the end of May and beginning of June. Even if there is no organized development for the Western Caribbean,it may be a signal for EPAC potential. When I'm being a homer/IMBY dude, I like to recall Allison was on its way to becoming a TC in the East Pac before coming North into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 ^ That all time great tropical model the CMC is sniffing something near Jamaica... You have to love the Crazy Uncle, of course anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 WSI 2011 hurricane forecast. http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/4/prweb8337890.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 WSI 2011 hurricane forecast. http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/4/prweb8337890.htm Seems pretty reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 JB speculates: 2011 ace 146.8 http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Seems pretty reasonable to me I don't know about multiple hurricane hits, but we could use multiple tropical storm hits for certain. Going on 6 weeks locally with 0.11 inches of rain. A June hit that weakens the drought and taps the OHC off Texas is what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I don't know about multiple hurricane hits, but we could use multiple tropical storm hits for certain. Going on 6 weeks locally with 0.11 inches of rain. A June hit that weakens the drought and taps the OHC off Texas is what the doctor ordered. I am sure Josh would like the chance to head to Texas to chase a few storms . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I am sure Josh would like the chance to head to Texas to chase a few storms . A Bret wouldn't hurt my feelings. And all the seafood in Corpus Christi he could enjoy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 JB speculates: 2011 ace 146.8 http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?paged=2 That would be a fairly good season. Just under hyper-active. 1996 Atlantic hurricane season 166 2010 Atlantic hurricane season 165 1969 Atlantic hurricane season 158 1980 Atlantic hurricane season 147 1966 Atlantic hurricane season 145 2008 Atlantic hurricane season 144 1951 Atlantic hurricane season 137 1989 Atlantic hurricane season 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 too bad it's not a few weeks later...we could root for this MCS to fester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 la la land GFS has a EPAC crossover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 JB gives a hint. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 JB gives a hint. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ If May was cooler than normal in Texas that analog might make sense. Mild dry is at least in the right direction down here. That part might still benefit from showing more substantial drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011051512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr through late may pattern is still horrible. huge neg NAO. that will have to reverse if this season has any chance to be better than last years snooze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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