k*** Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 hopefully it can get rid of the hideous negative NAO. what's wrong with a -NAO during this part of the year? i'm fine with it going to town on SST's and then switching around the opening of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 hopefully it can get rid of the hideous negative NAO. May -NAOs are correlated to hurricane landfalls during the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 what's wrong with a -NAO during this part of the year? i'm fine with it going to town on SST's and then switching around the opening of the season. but will it switch? it didnt last year. persistent east coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 May -NAOs are correlated to hurricane landfalls during the season. thats what JB is saying. leys hope this patern is reversed in aug-oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Poor rainstorm fretting already that there will be no EC action and it's only May 3rd. Right on que just as last year and the year before and the year before that... did you get insurance yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Poor rainstorm fretting already that there will be no EC action and it's only May 3rd. Right on que just as last year and the year before and the year before that... did you get insurance yet? cut rainstorm some slack...she's depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 1996, 1999 like for 2011. SST's are cooler then 2005, 2010. More in line with those seasons of 12-14 named storms... Farther west tracks-east coast hits. thinking 14 named storms 7 hurricanes 4 majors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 thats what JB is saying. leys hope this patern is reversed in aug-oct. Yes, JB developed that idea entirely on his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 DBM crew vs. rainstorm isn't very fair. Hang in there rainstorm. Appreciate the LC updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Poor rainstorm fretting already that there will be no EC action and it's only May 3rd. Right on que just as last year and the year before and the year before that... did you get insurance yet? im beginning to notice the same pattern as last may. fronts crossing the coast every 2 to 3 days without resistance. lets see if a western atlantic ridge ever shows up. it didnt last season and this may isnt getting off to a good start.a west atlantic ridge will not lock in with a neg NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 im beginning to notice the same pattern as last may. fronts crossing the coast every 2 to 3 days without resistance. lets see if a western atlantic ridge ever shows up. it didnt last season and this may isnt getting off to a good start.a west atlantic ridge will not lock in with a neg NAO. Hang in there. The trends look good and a +NAO may well be in place by mid June and last through September. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 lets see the pattern in late may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 lets see the pattern in ASO fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 lets see the pattern in late may Around here it appears to be occurring a couple of months earlier then last year...So instead of May and June it is March and April that sucked this year. I expect the pattern to flip by August-Sept time frame. Much more postive nao this year. Hang in there rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 The case for an early season Tropical Storm. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 ^ The GFS is sniffing out that lower pressure in the Caribbean, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 ^ The GFS is sniffing out that lower pressure in the Caribbean, fwiw. 3 weeks from now, not quite to official hurricane season. Thinking Allison, only a week into the season. I don't need two feet of rain, but an early season storm limited by low heat content waters off Texas and just enough rain to ease the drought, that'd be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 ^ The GFS is sniffing out that lower pressure in the Caribbean, fwiw. I have noticed the GFS doing that the last few days . Hopefully it will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 the pattern will have to change first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 Crown weather thinks tropical development is possible next week on May Friday the 13th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Still another 2-3 weeks out before any real chance for early development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 Crown weather thinks tropical development is possible next week on May Friday the 13th lol. I'd file that under highly unlikely. Maybe later towards the 16-20th, but still pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 SOI has tanked MJO erupting in phase 5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 SOI has tanked MJO erupting in phase 5/6. Right, which means we're 10-14 days from the effects reaching the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Continuing a pattern established last December, the ITCZ remains very active about South America and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Note the defined convective circulations (arrows) and the linear thunderstorm complex that stretches from the Cape Verde Islands into Brazil. Once the westerlies relax and retreat to higher latitudes, these disturbances will have a clear path over very warm waters into the major islands and (eventually) the United States. Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:00 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....t#ixzz1LgzudvUt i would add, IF the westerlies ever relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Continuing a pattern established last December, the ITCZ remains very active about South America and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Note the defined convective circulations (arrows) and the linear thunderstorm complex that stretches from the Cape Verde Islands into Brazil. Once the westerlies relax and retreat to higher latitudes, these disturbances will have a clear path over very warm waters into the major islands and (eventually) the United States. Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Friday, May 6, 2011 at 7:00 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....t#ixzz1LgzudvUt i would add, IF the westerlies ever relax Normal for May of course. Expect the normal gulf, caribbean to produce our first tropical cyclones in June. The chance of getting something east of the islands before July are very rare. I expect that the cape verdes to be pretty good this year...Hopefully more will make it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 We're waiting for the 200mb westerly shear to lift out of the Carribien. It's not about to happen and doesn't happen until August some years. The MJO could help it temporarily but my guess is we won't start to see any permanent gaps in the shear zone until late June. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 things are as hostile as they can get right now. pattern must reverse somehow.the bermuda low must be replaced with a bermuda high. zero sign of that. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011050712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 things are as hostile as they can get right now. pattern must reverse somehow.the bermuda low must be replaced with a bermuda high. zero sign of that. http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr It supposed to be hostile during early to mid May. Typical. We will see if we can have a pattern switch with that "bermuda low" later this season, which could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Im guessing thats just a cold core nontropical system that has no chance to become tropical and will just sit and spin off the east coast for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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