HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nothing good ever goes into the big bend anyways... Yeah, it's funny you say that, because it's kind of true. I'm not aware of any big landfalls there-- at least not in the last 75 years or so. Even Tampa hasn't gotten any really hawt action since 1921, when a big, late-season, Wilma-ish Cat 3 hit the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, it's funny you say that, because it's kind of true. I'm not aware of any big landfalls there-- at least not in the last 75 years or so. Even Tampa hasn't gotten any really hawt action since 1921, when a big, late-season, Wilma-ish Cat 3 hit the Bay. The Big Bend makes sense because of geometry. Considering just 50 mi down the coast is a huge landfall area, Tampa has just been statistically lucky, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 The Big Bend makes sense because of geometry. Considering just 50 mi down the coast is a huge landfall area, Tampa has just been statistically lucky, imo. Agreed Re: Tampa. Total luck. The Pensacola area went super long as well, and then Opal 1995 broke the spell and the area's been hammered a few of times since. But up until Opal, Pensacola was like Tampa-- it had gone looooooong without a major even brushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 My thinking is that with a La Nina still in place we should see an above normal period. However how long can luck in any one place last? Odds favor more direct impacts on the US coast. You could hardly ask for any less impacts in a hyper season such as 2010. Here in Louisiana, we had major impacts in 2005, 2008; With 2011 being another 3 years later, will this be our year again? Will Josh be making plans to visit Louisiana again? Hey, Kenneth-- nice to see you here! My chase partner, Scott747, says he thinks we're going to be in W LA this year-- which I find interesting. I have to say, though: your state is some tough chase turf-- just with all the bayous, the low elevations, etc. Tough, tough turf, dude! It'll make a man out of you, that's for sure. N Central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas early in the season with an increased threat to the Western Gulf later would be my WAG. Should be an interesting and active season regardless. I hope you're right. It's interesting how you suggest a W-Gulf threat later in the season-- as I usually think of the W Gulf (TX) as more of an early-season zone. All of TX's majors have been mid-Sep or much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's nice for us all to be talking about the upcoming season like this. Although it's so cold outside, I feel like we're all sitting around a warm campfire. Scott747 in particular needs this sort of cheering up. He gets a bit blue on the off season. I know because he tells me. Methinks these discussions can be therapeutic for him. And they might also help kush with his off-season condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I just read TSR's forecast. I missed it in early December when it came out. Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 A certain private sector met has a theory about the lack of big canes in the Big Bend, shallow water and upwelling ahead of the storm. Second year of a cold ENSO during the current warm AMO, I too have a feeling about Florida and the Carolinas, and maybe a Josh storm for Deep South Texas. I don't know enough to say whether this will be another year of low activity in Srain's "Carla Cradle", maybe HM or one of the smarter pro-mets can weigh in. Minor changes to the 1999 tracks and maybe finally have the big Long Island 1938 weenie storm. My parents remembered it. I only got Belle, which was a letdown, and I missed Gloria in the Navy. I missed Gilbert in the Navy, for that matter, read about it in Newsweek after the fact. Didn't have satellite TV or internet access on war ships last Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 So far, I have to agree with the warm fuzzies. The AMM is at record high levels, and as long as the -AO/NAO sticks around, the Atlantic ridge should stay weaker than average. The chance of El Nino by the summer is very low. So my quick analogs would be: 1950, 1955, 1996, 1999, 2008-- historically there aren't a lot of bad years in the warm Atlantic era in the year +1 of La Nina, assuming no El Nino the next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 perhaps i should get insurance for my mobile home. another 2003 is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 A certain private sector met has a theory about the lack of big canes in the Big Bend, shallow water and upwelling ahead of the storm. Second year of a cold ENSO during the current warm AMO, I too have a feeling about Florida and the Carolinas, and maybe a Josh storm for Deep South Texas. I don't know enough to say whether this will be another year of low activity in Srain's "Carla Cradle", maybe HM or one of the smarter pro-mets can weigh in. Minor changes to the 1999 tracks and maybe finally have the big Long Island 1938 weenie storm. My parents remembered it. I only got Belle, which was a letdown, and I missed Gloria in the Navy. I missed Gilbert in the Navy, for that matter, read about it in Newsweek after the fact. Didn't have satellite TV or internet access on war ships last Century. Someone else mentioned deep-S TX to me. Those cyclones approaching the USA/MX border zone can be so nerve-wracking-- not knowing which side to commit to. So far, I have to agree with the warm fuzzies. The AMM is at record high levels, and as long as the -AO/NAO sticks around, the Atlantic ridge should stay weaker than average. The chance of El Nino by the summer is very low. So my quick analogs would be: 1950, 1955, 1996, 1999, 2008-- historically there aren't a lot of bad years in the warm Atlantic era in the year +1 of La Nina, assuming no El Nino the next year. Wow-- that's some sexy talk there. And those are some hawt analogue years. perhaps i should get insurance for my mobile home. another 2003 is very possible. For sure! Hurricanes aside, shouldn't you have insurance for your home just as a general rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Someone else mentioned deep-S TX to me. Those cyclones approaching the USA/MX border zone can be so nerve-wracking-- not knowing which side to commit to. Wow-- that's some sexy talk there. And those are some hawt analogue years. For sure! Hurricanes aside, shouldn't you have insurance for your home just as a general rule? that would be a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not really paying too much attention to the tropics right now... but the -AO/-NAO thus far during the winter season does seem to be in our favor for keeping SSTA in the Atlantic above normal. In addition, it seems that La Ninas when they are this intense tend to have multi-year phases. Just looking back at history (since 1950) with the stronger La Nina Events (below -1.5 degrees in ENSO region 3.4) and there only been one case of a strong La Nina turning into a weak El Nino during the following Hurricane Season. However, this was likely due to the atmosphere needing to reset itself after a very prolonged period (3+ years) of La Nina conditions in the Eastern Pacific. 1949-1950: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak to Moderate La Nina for the 1950 Hurricane Season 1955-1956: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak La Nina for the 1956 Hurricane Season 1973-1974: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak La Nina for the 1974 Hurricane Season 1975-1976: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak El Nino for the 1976 Hurricane Season 1988-1989: Strong La Nina turned into Near Neutral conditions for the 1989 Hurricane Season 1999-2000: Strong La Nina turned into Near Neutral to Weak La Nina conditions for the 2000 Hurricane Season It makes sense that La Nina events tend to have multi-year effects, since Rossby waves typically travel slower than the Kelvin waves that spark El Nino events. Thus, its no surprise to see quite a few multi-year La Nina events, while El Nino events tend to be more or less a 1-1.5 year ordeal. It also doesn't hurt to see the CFS forecasting a nearly constant Moderate to Strong La Nina persisting through part of this years Hurricane Season... with no members getting even close to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 as far as landfalls go if the neg nao persists through cane season i wouldnt expect much action this season, much like last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not really paying too much attention to the tropics right now... but the -AO/-NAO thus far during the winter season does seem to be in our favor for keeping SSTA in the Atlantic above normal. In addition, it seems that La Ninas when they are this intense tend to have multi-year phases. Just looking back at history (since 1950) with the stronger La Nina Events (below -1.5 degrees in ENSO region 3.4) and there only been one case of a strong La Nina turning into a weak El Nino during the following Hurricane Season. However, this was likely due to the atmosphere needing to reset itself after a very prolonged period (3+ years) of La Nina conditions in the Eastern Pacific. 1949-1950: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak to Moderate La Nina for the 1950 Hurricane Season 1955-1956: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak La Nina for the 1956 Hurricane Season 1973-1974: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak La Nina for the 1974 Hurricane Season 1975-1976: Strong La Nina turned into a Weak El Nino for the 1976 Hurricane Season 1988-1989: Strong La Nina turned into Near Neutral conditions for the 1989 Hurricane Season 1999-2000: Strong La Nina turned into Near Neutral to Weak La Nina conditions for the 2000 Hurricane Season It makes sense that La Nina events tend to have multi-year effects, since Rossby waves typically travel slower than the Kelvin waves that spark El Nino events. Thus, its no surprise to see quite a few multi-year La Nina events, while El Nino events tend to be more or less a 1-1.5 year ordeal. It also doesn't hurt to see the CFS forecasting a nearly constant Moderate to Strong La Nina persisting through part of this years Hurricane Season... with no members getting even close to neutral. Hey, dude-- how've you been? Good to see you around-- and thanks for this optimistic, red-meat post. It's a good debut for your 2011 tropical posting, I think! I'm getting kind of excited-- I just feel like it's going to be a memorable season. I will admit that part of it is just my superstition-- that the USA just can't go six years without a 100-kt landfall-- but the feeling is also based on some of the more science-based posts by you and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 In other news... There still aren't any new Tropical Cyclone Reports on the NHC site. Every weekday morning, I eagerly go on the site and check-- and the bowl's always empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In other news... There still aren't any new Tropical Cyclone Reports on the NHC site. Every weekday morning, I eagerly go on the site and check-- and the bowl's always empty. maybe you should email jack beven and ask what's up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 maybe you should email jack beven and ask what's up I am tempted, but I absolutely won't. I'm strictly business with him. I'm psyched he even gives me the time of day, and so I handle the relationship with great care-- meaning I only contact him about important stuff. P.S. Also, I don't think he's writing either of the reports I'm most eager to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Atlantic TNA index was 1.01 last month. I think that's the highest ever recorded for the month of December. If current warming trends continue, then it is possible that this January may top last January's record of .80. That's crazy to think about. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tna.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 While we wait for storm reports, a piece of data that might support an active 2011. With all of this -NAO/-AO, TNA SSTAs are climbing once more, and December will mark the 11th monthly high record (only October was 2nd to Oct 2003 by a mere 0.03°C) by almost half a degree celsius, since I think Dec will be around +1°C The Atlantic TNA index was 1.01 last month. I think that's the highest ever recorded for the month of December. If current warming trends continue, then it is possible that this January may top last January's record of .80. That's crazy to think about. http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/tna.data Not a bad guess. Kush doesn't get very excited by SSTs, and I agree to a degree...but we have to take into account that even shear is highly modulated, indirectly, by SSTs, and also TNA in spring is well correlated to hyperactivity (not yet there, I know). The best case scenario for a back to back hyperactive season is for the Niña to maybe wane a little during spring (weak Niña) and restart a steady strengthening (of Niña conditions) all season. I think the NAO will average negative for the critical trimonth MAM. If we meet those two requirements, then 16+ storms with several high octane hurricanes will be a good bet. By the way, welcome back, we missed you for the last half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Atlantic TNA index was 1.01 last month. I think that's the highest ever recorded for the month of December. If current warming trends continue, then it is possible that this January may top last January's record of .80. That's crazy to think about. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tna.data Omg, calamity!!1! P.S. That record heat content didn't do a whole lot for the USA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there a proper analog on what kind of season you have after a strong hurricane (late) hurricane season AND a strong la nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there a proper analog on what kind of season you have after a strong hurricane (late) hurricane season AND a strong la nina? During +AMO and with the premise that the Niña won't go down on fire, we have the steady or strengthening 1955 and 1956 or the slowly declining 1989 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 During +AMO and with the premise that the Niña won't go down on fire, we have the steady or strengthening 1955 and 1956 or the slowly declining 1989 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the way, welcome back, we missed you for the last half of the season. Omg, calamity!!1! P.S. That record heat content didn't do a whole lot for the USA last year. Hello! Yes, my tropical interests have kind of dwindled since the 2009 hurricane season, and last year didn't really help me either, Josh. Here's to a good season of tracking storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just a little aside I'm currently creating maybe what is a better way of judging indivdual storms/seasons. Whilst the ACE is all well and good for a historical measure, I do feel it doesn't tell the full story of the season. So I thought what would seasons look like if a system was created which weighted everything from max winds, pressure, deaths from the storm, cost, and other factors. I've only done the 1950-1953 years (I on't want to go any further back due to information lacking in some departments!) but the top 5 of those 4 seasons are: Dog 1950 71.76 (probably overdone!) Easy 1951 54.72 Fox 1952 50.25 Charlie 1951 47.15 Carol 1953 47.12 Maybe people aren't bothered but its interesting to me, esp as most of the way of measuring a season bypass the effects to land which I personally don't think is right. A bit of off-season fun, I suspect Janet and Hazel will both be getting onto that top 5 list when the 50-59 series is done, wonder what is going to be top overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's a neat concept, but I don't like the idea of having to come up with numbers to equate deaths to dollers to millibars. Kinda like tornadotony's toin index. What kind of formula did you come up with? Just a little aside I'm currently creating maybe what is a better way of judging indivdual storms/seasons. Whilst the ACE is all well and good for a historical measure, I do feel it doesn't tell the full story of the season. So I thought what would seasons look like if a system was created which weighted everything from max winds, pressure, deaths from the storm, cost, and other factors. I've only done the 1950-1953 years (I on't want to go any further back due to information lacking in some departments!) but the top 5 of those 4 seasons are: Dog 1950 71.76 (probably overdone!) Easy 1951 54.72 Fox 1952 50.25 Charlie 1951 47.15 Carol 1953 47.12 Maybe people aren't bothered but its interesting to me, esp as most of the way of measuring a season bypass the effects to land which I personally don't think is right. A bit of off-season fun, I suspect Janet and Hazel will both be getting onto that top 5 list when the 50-59 series is done, wonder what is going to be top overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well as for your first point, yeah your right I'm not using this as a serious thing but I simply thought as I said before that a storm or season involves more then just pure numbers...for example you can have a low number/low ACE season but have multiple big storms and I just thought it'd be cool to use a rather basic set of numbers to actually rank em, nothing more then that really! As for the forumla. It varies but the wind max forumal is simply 25kts equals 2, then 30kts equals 4 (+2), 35kts comes out at 7 (+3), 40kts arrives at 11 (+4) and it keeps going up the scale like that, for example 145kts comes out at a hefty 305 whilst 65kts has much less. Pressure works out with 1015mbs as a base then every 1mb lower peak X2. ACE hasn't been weighed very heavily niether have H.days. As for the death/damage, I'm still tweaking with that for now. As I said its really just something to whittle away the off-season. Just for fun I wonder what people think will come out top...from 1950-55 the top 3 at the moment are #1: Janet #2: Hazel #3: Dog (50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think sometime soon someone will track accumulated IKE or some other similar measure, giving us something way better than ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think sometime soon someone will track accumulated IKE or some other similar measure, giving us something way better than ACE. The only problem with that, and I say this as someone who did their master's thesis on wind fields, is that our description of the total wind field is poor at best and doesn't seem to be on the list of priorities to improve (nor should it be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The only problem with that, and I say this as someone who did their master's thesis on wind fields, is that our description of the total wind field is poor at best and doesn't seem to be on the list of priorities to improve (nor should it be). They could do a simplified version of Ike, couldn't they, using max winds, RMW, weighted radius in four quadrants of 64 knot, 50 knot, and 34 knots, couldn't they? I think that all comes out every six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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