HurricaneJosh Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 The improvements to the GFDL over the last two years have been pretty good. It no longer bombs everything out. It's still not great for absolute intensity forecasts, but like the GFS and ECM, it gives a good idea on trend. Yeah, actually, I shouldn't joke about it like that. It's a cool model and it has its place. Would you believe, I was actually disappointed last year that it was no longer this tropical porn factory? I'm ashamed to say that, but the reality is that on an off week, a particularly titillating GFDL run can really lift an otherwise dull day-- even if it has no basis in reality. We live to dream in these parts. You really have fallen apart ever since this marathon thing entered your mind. At least I now understand all this silly talk about a Carla downgrade and feel better. Wtf? ^ mid life crisis ftw... OK, that is just vicious. I tell ya, the Texans are a tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yeah, actually, I shouldn't joke about it like that. It's a cool model and it has its place. Would you believe, I was actually disappointed last year that it was no longer this tropical porn factory? I'm ashamed to say that, but the reality is that on an off week, a particularly titillating GFDL run can really lift an otherwise dull day-- even if it has no basis in reality. We live to dream in these parts. Feel free to direct your ridicule at the HWRF, though. Replace Bebe with Carla and this is how I always envision the Texans thinking about Carla (first :20). http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153600/stupid-boobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Replace Bebe with Carla and this is how I always envision the Texans thinking about Carla (first :20). http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153600/stupid-boobs Perv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Feel free to direct your ridicule at the HWRF, though. Replace Bebe with Carla and this is how I always envision the Texans thinking about Carla (first :20). http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153600/stupid-boobs I see you're happy to inflame this diplomatic crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 I wasn't alive yet. And Carla dropped a mondo tornado on Galveston, which I think is compensation if it gets dropped by Josh down a Cat. 91L, I'd say next but next is 6 weeks away or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Interesting... The precip chart makes it look as though the trough will be set up in a favored position for East Coast landfalls, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 The precip chart makes it look as though the trough will be set up in a favored position for East Coast landfalls, too. Yep. As well as MX/TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 The Euro Seasonal for August, September & October is out regarding MSLP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 1938! 1938!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 yeah, but it looks the like the NAM-GFS consensus is another Ike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 The Euro Seasonal for August, September & October is out regarding MSLP... Gotta love that long-range weenie porn...a swath of darker blue is pointed toward the East Coast, and another one is in the eastern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 While thunderstorms are the major concern for interests in the U.S., the GOES EAST view shows what may be the big issue during the coming summer. The tropics are very active, and I am not talking about the empty circulation over the Sargasso Sea! The ITCZ continues to percolate, with strong tropical waves progressing westward from equatorial Africa into Brazil and later, Colombia. These huge impulses have often displayed circulations, and the lead disturbance is linked to the polar westerlies over the central Atlantic Ocean. As the jet stream retreats in coming months, a higher latitude route could take these systems into the major islands as well as the Gulf and/or East Coasts. Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Longer Term, Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 6:30 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-longer-term-saturday-april-23-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct#ixzz1KOdwxedF from LC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Not gonna bother to even look at the NAO or whatever, wrong phase of the AMO, but an extreme drought year with recurring 90ºF days in April and maybe some days pushing 113ºF or above in Dallas at Solstice time, well, maybe Josh gets to set up camp around Matamoros or Brownsville and video a weakening, but still major hurricane, in August. /science, I don't need no stinkin' science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 bump. a watched pot never boils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Food for thought for later. Just borrowed this from a red tag named f-2 in the 4/27 tornado thread, and 50 m/s is about 100 knots, or a major. I sort of knew this already, but a picture says a thousand words. A major hurricane, at least in the RMW, is the equivalent of an EF-2 tornado, and SPC considers EF-2 and above as 'significant' tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 A split 500MB flow is leading to a strong and somewhat cold storm pattern across the Mediterranean countries. Rare for the end of April, a deep low is seen tracking across Algeria and Tunisia. See also the percolation along the ITCZ in equatorial Africa. Close examination reveals EIGHT convective circulations from the central Atlantic Ocean into the Rift Valley. I must stress once more that if this pattern maintains itself for another month, there is the threat of a named storm impacting the major islands and U.S. coastline near or before the start of the official 2011 Hurricane Season. Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 3:30 A.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-april-30-2011-at-3-30-a-m-ct#ixzz1L0FxkO7P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Good to see that LC is finally onboard with just about everyone else regarding an early start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 A split 500MB flow is leading to a strong and somewhat cold storm pattern across the Mediterranean countries. Rare for the end of April, a deep low is seen tracking across Algeria and Tunisia. See also the percolation along the ITCZ in equatorial Africa. Close examination reveals EIGHT convective circulations from the central Atlantic Ocean into the Rift Valley. I must stress once more that if this pattern maintains itself for another month, there is the threat of a named storm impacting the major islands and U.S. coastline near or before the start of the official 2011 Hurricane Season. Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 3:30 A.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....t#ixzz1L0FxkO7P Has LC issued his forecast for this season?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 LC's crazy...a storm possibly impacting the islands before the start of the season? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Has LC issued his forecast for this season?? not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 this pattern better reverse or the forecasts of east coast activity will be wrong: http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr may sets the pattern for the season. a strong bermuda low means another 2010.we need a positive NAO and a very elusive bermuda high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 this pattern better reverse or the forecasts of east coast activity will be wrong: New regulations require barbless hooks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 this pattern better reverse or the forecasts of east coast activity will be wrong: http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=168hr may sets the pattern for the season. a strong bermuda low means another 2010.we need a positive NAO and a very elusive bermuda high. Do we have a forecast for temperature patterns in the former USSR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Do we have a forecast for temperature patterns in the former USSR? looks hot again, another 2010 and nothing to be interested in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Enjoy your sub tropical storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 looks impressive. impressively icepussyish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 impressively icepussyish hopefully it can get rid of the hideous negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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