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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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The improvements to the GFDL over the last two years have been pretty good. It no longer bombs everything out. It's still not great for absolute intensity forecasts, but like the GFS and ECM, it gives a good idea on trend.

Yeah, actually, I shouldn't joke about it like that. It's a cool model and it has its place. Would you believe, I was actually disappointed last year that it was no longer this tropical porn factory? :D

I'm ashamed to say that, but the reality is that on an off week, a particularly titillating GFDL run can really lift an otherwise dull day-- even if it has no basis in reality. We live to dream in these parts. :wub:

You really have fallen apart ever since this marathon thing entered your mind. At least I now understand all this silly talk about a Carla downgrade and feel better.

Wtf? :lol:

^

mid life crisis ftw...

OK, that is just vicious. :D

I tell ya, the Texans are a tough crowd.

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Yeah, actually, I shouldn't joke about it like that. It's a cool model and it has its place. Would you believe, I was actually disappointed last year that it was no longer this tropical porn factory? :D

I'm ashamed to say that, but the reality is that on an off week, a particularly titillating GFDL run can really lift an otherwise dull day-- even if it has no basis in reality. We live to dream in these parts. :wub:

Feel free to direct your ridicule at the HWRF, though.

Replace Bebe with Carla and this is how I always envision the Texans thinking about Carla (first :20).

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153600/stupid-boobs

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While thunderstorms are the major concern for interests in the U.S., the GOES EAST view shows what may be the big issue during the coming summer. The tropics are very active, and I am not talking about the empty circulation over the Sargasso Sea! The ITCZ continues to percolate, with strong tropical waves progressing westward from equatorial Africa into Brazil and later, Colombia. These huge impulses have often displayed circulations, and the lead disturbance is linked to the polar westerlies over the central Atlantic Ocean. As the jet stream retreats in coming months, a higher latitude route could take these systems into the major islands as well as the Gulf and/or East Coasts.

Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Longer Term, Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 6:30 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-longer-term-saturday-april-23-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct#ixzz1KOdwxedF

from LC

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Not gonna bother to even look at the NAO or whatever, wrong phase of the AMO, but an extreme drought year with recurring 90ºF days in April and maybe some days pushing 113ºF or above in Dallas at Solstice time, well, maybe Josh gets to set up camp around Matamoros or Brownsville and video a weakening, but still major hurricane, in August.

/science, I don't need no stinkin' science

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Food for thought for later. Just borrowed this from a red tag named f-2 in the 4/27 tornado thread, and 50 m/s is about 100 knots, or a major. I sort of knew this already, but a picture says a thousand words. A major hurricane, at least in the RMW, is the equivalent of an EF-2 tornado, and SPC considers EF-2 and above as 'significant' tornadoes.

fscale.jpg

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A split 500MB flow is leading to a strong and somewhat cold storm pattern across the Mediterranean countries. Rare for the end of April, a deep low is seen tracking across Algeria and Tunisia. See also the percolation along the ITCZ in equatorial Africa. Close examination reveals EIGHT convective circulations from the central Atlantic Ocean into the Rift Valley. I must stress once more that if this pattern maintains itself for another month, there is the threat of a named storm impacting the major islands and U.S. coastline near or before the start of the official 2011 Hurricane Season.

Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 3:30 A.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-april-30-2011-at-3-30-a-m-ct#ixzz1L0FxkO7P

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A split 500MB flow is leading to a strong and somewhat cold storm pattern across the Mediterranean countries. Rare for the end of April, a deep low is seen tracking across Algeria and Tunisia. See also the percolation along the ITCZ in equatorial Africa. Close examination reveals EIGHT convective circulations from the central Atlantic Ocean into the Rift Valley. I must stress once more that if this pattern maintains itself for another month, there is the threat of a named storm impacting the major islands and U.S. coastline near or before the start of the official 2011 Hurricane Season.

Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 3:30 A.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....t#ixzz1L0FxkO7P

Has LC issued his forecast for this season??

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