Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I just can't get excited about ETS/STS in a highly sheared environment along a trough. I guess it's sort of a novelty item though. Better that than droughts and wildfires. GFS a bit less enthusiastic, Crazy Uncle still onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Already have a decent surface circulation out there... highly sheared though currently . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I just saw this feature on the 18z NAM. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 http://www.crownweat...m/?page_id=4557 I find their discussion quite interesting from this morning and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can we stop already with the NAM discussions in the tropical threads? It's useless as a tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ewall maps show is in a safe spot between high shear areas. GFS shows it has a window of about 96hrs to get something going before it gets shredded. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 GFS sort of tries, than decides not to. Canadian doesn't disappoint. Not great yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me. I want an Invest and a HWRF run showing 120 knots in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 It isn't like Josh is an official member of the reanalysis team or anything. And it isn't his fault Steve has hurricane envy. Not the only one, Hugo89 wanting his hurricane to be a Cat 5 and all. Just have to live with the hurricane you're given. I said Hugo was probably around 145 mph, dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me. Yuppers. In fact, rather than a true t-wave, the incipient surface trough was actually remnants of the cold front that pushed through the eastern U.S. almost a full week ago (i.e the system before the one that produced the 3-day severe wx/tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I said Hugo was probably around 145 mph, dummy. Well, excuuuse me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Yuppers. In fact, rather than a true t-wave, the incipient surface trough was actually remnants of the cold front that pushed through the eastern U.S. almost a full week ago (i.e the system before the one that produced the 3-day severe wx/tornado outbreak. Other than the fact is was 4 months later in the year, during an El Nino season with a cold AMO, the last major hurricane to hit the HGX CWA was of non-tropical origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Something is brewin... http://www.tropicala...&lat=23&lon=-60 You can see the 60kt wind shear shredding the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The lack of a true tropical wave? We'd have no tropical weather here almost if we depended on real tropical waves. I was going to respond to a disappeared post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The lack of a true tropical wave? We'd have no tropical weather here almost if we depended on real tropical waves. I was going to respond to a disappeared post... I had a hard time connecting your response with my post at first. I thought it a rebuttal to a point never made...but realized it wasn't so I deleted mine. Sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I guess it depends on how lax your definition of a ST storm is. It's probably going to have gales, but it's never going to come close to getting rid of its upper level cold core. Also, it begins to fill as the temperature gradient weakens, which is never a good sign for pure warm core development. This system is certainly originating from an upper low, but based on the UKMET forecast for Friday it looks rather warm core to me. The GFS has a different evolution, with a small warm core embedded in a region of rather light temperature gradient aloft. The graphics below show 500 mb temps and 850 mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 This system is certainly originating from an upper low, but based on the UKMET forecast for Friday it looks rather warm core to me. The GFS has a different evolution, with a small warm core embedded in a region of rather light temperature gradient aloft. The graphics below show 500 mb temps and 850 mb winds. Yeah, it's definitely warm core below 700mb by Friday morning (if not right now). But once it loses its temperature gradient and the upper low goes by, it will start to weaken. If the upper low cutoff and it continued to deepen, then it would have a chance to go ST, but right now, it looks like all the deepening is due to baroclinic processes rather than moist convective ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Now Invest 91L BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al912011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201104201829 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011 AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Tiny low level swirl ENE of Sint Maarten as seen on this homemade satellite loop made with love and NASA brand loop mix. An AL91 for a possible STD wouldn't completely surprise me. Woot. A new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Heh. GFDL test80l 2011041118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 OK, that is absurd, even for the GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 That GFDL run was a test done on April 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 That GFDL run was a test done on April 11th. Oh, duh! Thanks. I had seriously lost all remaining respect for the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The improvements to the GFDL over the last two years have been pretty good. It no longer bombs everything out. It's still not great for absolute intensity forecasts, but like the GFS and ECM, it gives a good idea on trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Oh, duh! Thanks. I had seriously lost all remaining respect for the model. You really have fallen apart ever since this marathon thing entered your mind. At least I now understand all this silly talk about a Carla downgrade and feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 ^ mid life crisis ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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