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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011


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UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me.

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UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me.

I want an Invest and a HWRF run showing 120 knots in Miami.

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It isn't like Josh is an official member of the reanalysis team or anything. And it isn't his fault Steve has hurricane envy. Not the only one, Hugo89 wanting his hurricane to be a Cat 5 and all.

Just have to live with the hurricane you're given.

I said Hugo was probably around 145 mph, dummy.

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UKMet and ECM have similar evolutions. Baroclinic deepening due to the upper low through Friday morning, then weakening as the upper low passes east. Outside of the fact that a tropical wave was already in the area, which meant there was already a surface low to deepen, this seems like pretty standard extratropical stuff to me.

Yuppers.

In fact, rather than a true t-wave, the incipient surface trough was actually remnants of the cold front that pushed through the eastern U.S. almost a full week ago (i.e the system before the one that produced the 3-day severe wx/tornado outbreak.

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Yuppers.

In fact, rather than a true t-wave, the incipient surface trough was actually remnants of the cold front that pushed through the eastern U.S. almost a full week ago (i.e the system before the one that produced the 3-day severe wx/tornado outbreak.

Other than the fact is was 4 months later in the year, during an El Nino season with a cold AMO, the last major hurricane to hit the HGX CWA was of non-tropical origin.

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The lack of a true tropical wave?

We'd have no tropical weather here almost if we depended on real tropical waves.

I was going to respond to a disappeared post...

I had a hard time connecting your response with my post at first. I thought it a rebuttal to a point never made...but realized it wasn't so I deleted mine. Sorry...

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I guess it depends on how lax your definition of a ST storm is. It's probably going to have gales, but it's never going to come close to getting rid of its upper level cold core. Also, it begins to fill as the temperature gradient weakens, which is never a good sign for pure warm core development.

This system is certainly originating from an upper low, but based on the UKMET forecast for Friday it looks rather warm core to me. The GFS has a different evolution, with a small warm core embedded in a region of rather light temperature gradient aloft. The graphics below show 500 mb temps and 850 mb winds.

post-88-0-56224300-1303323335.gif

post-88-0-16757400-1303323511.gif

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This system is certainly originating from an upper low, but based on the UKMET forecast for Friday it looks rather warm core to me. The GFS has a different evolution, with a small warm core embedded in a region of rather light temperature gradient aloft. The graphics below show 500 mb temps and 850 mb winds.

Yeah, it's definitely warm core below 700mb by Friday morning (if not right now). But once it loses its temperature gradient and the upper low goes by, it will start to weaken. If the upper low cutoff and it continued to deepen, then it would have a chance to go ST, but right now, it looks like all the deepening is due to baroclinic processes rather than moist convective ones.

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Now Invest 91L

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al912011.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201104201829

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011

AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105,

AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

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