Srain Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I've a feeling you're not going to like Josh's upcoming new thread. Pffft...Cat 3 my back side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 I wanted to position my findings carefully-- but I see the cat's out of the bag. Carla was a low end four at landfall. Metz backs me up. Well, I'm not sure I agreed with all of the points in his presentation, honestly. He also called Audrey a Cat 4 at landfall, and we now know that's simply not true. Uh oh. Are the hurtyhurtz bigger in Texas too? Troublemaker. Don't mess with Carla... Omg, it's like you're holding a gun to my head. This doesn't exactly foster the scientific method. I've a feeling you're not going to like Josh's upcoming new thread. Troublemaker. Pffft...Cat 3 my back side... Well, I'd like an opportunity to explain my calculations before everyone attacks me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I wasn't born yet. No memories of Dan Rather in the wind and rain at the beach. No skin in that game. The F-4 tornado in GLS was cool, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 So when can we expect this piece of art to be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 So when can we expect this piece of art to be posted? Omg. Why-- so you can attack it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Omg. Why-- so you can attack it? Now don't be so sensitive. Who said anything about anyone attacking it...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Now don't be so sensitive. Who said anything about anyone attacking it...? I'm a sensitive guy. P.S. When you take my reanalysis work as a whole, TX loses one Cat 4 but gains another-- so I don't wanna hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I'm a sensitive guy. P.S. When you take my reanalysis work as a whole, TX loses one Cat 4 but gains another-- so I don't wanna hear it. It isn't like Josh is an official member of the reanalysis team or anything. And it isn't his fault Steve has hurricane envy. Not the only one, Hugo89 wanting his hurricane to be a Cat 5 and all. Just have to live with the hurricane you're given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 It isn't like Josh is an official member of the reanalysis team or anything. Bingo. My conclusions have no influence on anything. That having been said, I do think-- since I'm applying their methodologies-- that my conclusions should anticipate theirs fairly well. But let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Canadian 00z GGEM run from D8-10 clearly indicates a tropical storm.. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Looks frontal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I also just checked the other models, none of them have anything even close to a low pressure system in that region at that time...something to keep an eye on though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Looks frontal to me. Do you have any better source that shows the tropical Atlantic for days 7-10? or at least a link to the phase charts? It does look mostly tropical, with a disturbance coming in from the tropical Atlantic and developing close to PR, while a huge ridge builds for most of the subtropical Atlantic. Merely academical interest. >99% that it won't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Does look like its pulling the 14ºC 850 mb isotherm down behind it. 700 mb RH looks quirelly. Surface isobars look pretty round. Could be a hybrid. Or, it could be the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Looking at the 06z GFS, it does look frontal in origin...maybe transitioning to a hybrid. The GFS shows that the EPac has an early start too, fully tropical and more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Do you have any better source that shows the tropical Atlantic for days 7-10? or at least a link to the phase charts? It does look mostly tropical, with a disturbance coming in from the tropical Atlantic and developing close to PR, while a huge ridge builds for most of the subtropical Atlantic. Merely academical interest. >99% that it won't pan out. Nope, just looking at the 850T gradient and the warm frontal overrunning signature. I was also only using the snapshot that was posted, so it certainly could be transitioning in model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I care more about storms going into the maritimes than I do Texas...for some reason, nothing over there ever gets me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Oh, I TX cyclones. I think it's my favorite chase turf on the planet. Well, MX's Yucatan is, really. But TX is a close second because of the combination of excellent, high-quality cyclones and ease of access/navigation, along with lots of towns. TX rocks from a cyclone perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 You have to look at the whole vertical profile. Also, there's no such thing as an "ascending" easterly QBO. Wind anomalies descend through the stratosphere. See my other posts too. Again, the QBO should NOT be treated as a one dimensional index as it so often is. The "transition" to an easterly QBO that you note yields easterly vertical shear through the stratosphere, at the equator. Which through the thermal wind relationship, results in an anomalously warm stratosphere ~10-15 degrees off the equator. A warmer stratosphere is linked with lower tropopause heights, which limits convective potential and TC development. In 2005, we were squarely within a strong easterly phase of the QBO. This did present net easterly shear in the stratosphere for at least the first half of the season. By October, we saw a switch to net westerly shear. Note that most of the activity that year was relatively "high latitude", away from strongest influence of the QBO induced anomalies. Interesting. I'd love to learn more about this stuff. What levels are you using to determine net shear in the stratosphere? 10-100mb? I'm also a little confused about how the thermal wind relationship plays a role in this case -- I assume westerly QBO corresponds to a stronger meridional temperature gradient in the stratosphere, and therefore (like the jet stream) results in cool stratospheric temperature anomalies 10-15° poleward? Then again, the Coriolis force is neglible around the equator, so the PGF would seemingly be the only force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ This is a fun toy for trying to guess if a model likes something in a special, warm core, kind of way. CMC hasn't updated to the 12Z run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The Euro, GFS, Canadian and Nogaps suggest an easterly wave traversing across the Atlantic. It must be getting a bit closer to Tropical Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 hurricane sign of the Apocalypse, GFS offers some support, and Canadian is totally onboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 its interesting that if anything develops it appears it will move sw. a sign that this season everything doesnt beebop out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I guess it depends on how lax your definition of a ST storm is. It's probably going to have gales, but it's never going to come close to getting rid of its upper level cold core. Also, it begins to fill as the temperature gradient weakens, which is never a good sign for pure warm core development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wow incredibly favorable environment for development </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 00Z ECMWF brings it (whatever it is) into S. Fl Mon afternoon. Probably not going to verify but I'd take an enhanced risk of thunderstorms over climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Tiny low level swirl ENE of Sint Maarten as seen on this homemade satellite loop made with love and NASA brand loop mix. An AL91 for a possible STD wouldn't completely surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I just can't get excited about ETS/STS in a highly sheared environment along a trough. I guess it's sort of a novelty item though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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