IsentropicLift Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 it might be 4 months before we even get a real storm...taking the 384 hr GFS and extrapolating it forward doesnt make a whole lot of sense. This general pattern has been persistant in one form or another for several weeks. Even taking the GFS at hr 72 you can see the SE ridge. Hr 156 the Gulf is still open for business hr 228 ridge is still in place and finaly hr 384 Of course the pattern is going to fluctuate, but it seems as soon as the ridge breaks down, its replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The general theme throughout the long range for quite awhile now appears to be a nice dome of high pressure off the SE US coast. This should allow for favorable development underneath the ridge. Tropical cyclones would then round the base of the ridge and be directed into the SE US. If this pattern persists, it should be a very good year for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Texas is doomed if a hurricane enters the Gulf by the 3rd week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Texas is doomed if a hurricane enters the Gulf by the 3rd week of April. Start stocking up now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 This thread has gotten a bit light on science today, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Texas is doomed if a hurricane enters the Gulf by the 3rd week of April. Was the famous TCHP map posted on the local forum showing cat 6 and sub 850 potential already? Never to early to get everyone worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This thread has gotten a bit light on science today, hasn't it? I'm staying old school this year. Storm by storm. 08 analog is such a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Of course I agree that its too early to be looking at the models, but there is definitly a pattern that has been developing over the past few weeks, which looks to persist for the foreceable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm staying old school this year. Storm by storm. 08 analog is such a teaser. Omg, hi! A 2008 redux would be ultra-hawt-- I wubbed the W-Gulf focus-- but it would be nice to have cyclones with actual cores this time around! P.S. I've been doing some reanalysis work, and my calculations cast doubt on Carla's Cat-4 status. If you model it from a purely mathematical standpoint, it flirts with Cat 3. Naturally, I find this a bit disturbing. Will post details in the reanalysis thread soon. P.P.S. However, my same reanalysis work makes Celia a solid 4-- so even if TX loses one Cat 4, it gains another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Was the famous TCHP map posted on the local forum showing cat 6 and sub 850 potential already? Never to early to get everyone worked up. We could be facing a 35 knot 1000 mb storm if that 384 hour GFS height map pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Omg, hi! A 2008 redux would be ultra-hawt-- I wubbed the W-Gulf focus-- but it would be nice to have cyclones with actual cores this time around! P.S. I've been doing some reanalysis work, and my calculations cast doubt on Carla's Cat-4 status. If you model it from a purely mathematical standpoint, it flirts with Cat 3. Naturally, I find this a bit disturbing. Will post details in the reanalysis thread soon. P.P.S. However, my same reanalysis work makes Celia a solid 4-- so even if TX loses one Cat 4, it gains another. More palm trees in Florida=better video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Omg, hi! A 2008 redux would be ultra-hawt-- I wubbed the W-Gulf focus-- but it would be nice to have cyclones with actual cores this time around! P.S. I've been doing some reanalysis work, and my calculations cast doubt on Carla's Cat-4 status. If you model it from a purely mathematical standpoint, it flirts with Cat 3. Naturally, I find this a bit disturbing. Will post details in the reanalysis thread soon. I'm riding in the backseat on the next chase as it could become heated if you decide to downgrade Carla. Palin dissing I can take. However I won't stand for Carla dissing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Omg, hi! A 2008 redux would be ultra-hawt-- I wubbed the W-Gulf focus-- but it would be nice to have cyclones with actual cores this time around! P.S. I've been doing some reanalysis work, and my calculations cast doubt on Carla's Cat-4 status. If you model it from a purely mathematical standpoint, it flirts with Cat 3. Naturally, I find this a bit disturbing. Will post details in the reanalysis thread soon. P.P.S. However, my same reanalysis work makes Celia a solid 4-- so even if TX loses one Cat 4, it gains another. If we do 08 over again you have to get your house in order re: chasing cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 There are important differences between 1955 and 2008... the state of the ENSO around hurricane season is far from unknown, but my guess right now is that if it is trending strongly colder during summer it will be closer to 1955...but things are looking a bit more 2008 right now...maybe slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 There are important differences between 1955 and 2008... the state of the ENSO around hurricane season is far from unknown, but my guess right now is that if it is trending strongly colder during summer it will be closer to 1955...but things are looking a bit more 2008 right now...maybe slightly colder. One difference between 2011 and 1955 is the La Niña in 1955 strengthened from a weak winter state to a strong summer/fall state. I imagine that degree of cooling from winter kept the North American anomalous 500mb ridging further south than what would happen this year if we see ENSO re-cooling in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I would say North Carolina is always at risk. In 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 the Carolinas were impacted by Isabel, Gaston, Ophelia, Ernesto, Gabrielle and Hanna, respectively. If there is a state I'd be probably a little more concerned about this year, given the analogs, I'd say the mid-south Texas coastline. Areas like Corpus Christi, Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, ect. Right, understood. NC is always at risk as is most of the Gulf Coast. But the word used was "trouble" because it may be excessive this year...worse than normal...that type of thing. I'm not ready to say much more than that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Right, understood. NC is always at risk as is most of the Gulf Coast. But the word used was "trouble" because it may be excessive this year...worse than normal...that type of thing. I'm not ready to say much more than that at the moment. Understandable. "Trouble" I'd be using more for Texas than North Carolina this year, but it's all irrelevant. We could have Hurricane "Bret" hit Corpus Christi this August, then have Hurricane "Don" scrape the Outer Banks two weeks later. It's all a game of chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Understandable. "Trouble" I'd be using more for Texas than North Carolina this year, but it's all irrelevant. We could have Hurricane "Bret" hit Corpus Christi this August, then have Hurricane "Don" scrape the Outer Banks two weeks later. It's all a game of chance. There are lightly populated stretches of Texas coastline, between BRO and CRP, where Bret hit being the most lightly populated. Anything hitting the Carolinas is trouble well inland, and 3 of the 4 analog years people seem to like are all over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Understandable. "Trouble" I'd be using more for Texas than North Carolina this year, but it's all irrelevant. We could have Hurricane "Bret" hit Corpus Christi this August, then have Hurricane "Don" scrape the Outer Banks two weeks later. It's all a game of chance. Okay, yes, them too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Okay, yes, them too... Will there be an unofficial HM imitation AccuWeather map done in Paint or Photoshop? Extra points for painting a bullseye on Philadelphia, the storm JB really wants (just West of PHL. actually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 There are lightly populated stretches of Texas coastline, between BRO and CRP, where Bret hit being the most lightly populated. Anything hitting the Carolinas is trouble well inland, and 3 of the 4 analog years people seem to like are all over the Carolinas. Actually between High Island and Sabine Pass is about as desolate as the Kenedy county coastline. Taking the old 87 is a great day road trip if you have a hell of a 4x4 or a motorcycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Actually between High Island and Sabine Pass is about as desolate as the Kenedy county coastline. Taking the old 87 is a great day road trip if you have a hell of a 4x4 or a motorcycle. That High Island to Sabine Pass sort of depends. My understanding is people West of I-45 barley knew Jerry was hitting, Humberto hit in there and didn't even rain here (it rained here before it was classified a TD, then not another drop) whereas Ike did some major coastal flooding well up into the Golden Triangle. I'm willing to listen to anyone's reasoning on analog seasons, but the ones quoted, 55, 96, 99 and 2008, most were big Carolinas years. And, in what would make the whole board happy, a very near miss on the Outer Banks, at a minimum, will get people from the SNE forum headed to Chatham to watch the storm pass offshore, if we don't get 1938, 1944, Gloria and Bob references instead. Also saw 1976 as someone's analog. That featured a barelycane hitting New York. But it slowed before reaching the coast in a cold AMO. A little faster, the Gulf a little farther North or the offshore waters a tad warmer, who knows? I don't know how to order up multiple year composites like I see people posting, but I wonder how many of those years had Exceptional Drought in the preceding Winter/Spring months in Texas. I am sort of a believer in feedback ridges, and can see anything that makes the Gulf steered Bret like or farther South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 SSTs last year: SSTs this year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 SSTs last year: SSTs this year: Interesting-- thanks for posting this. Key takeaway: the Gulf and the NW Caribbean are warmer, the C Caribbean is cooler. The C/E Atlantic is cooler, but who cares? If you're looking for landfall action, fertile SSTs around the Cape Verde Islands are a complete waste of heat potential-- and, in fact, I think warm SSTs out there cause faster development and the dreaded premature recurves. I'll take this year's setup-- thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Interesting-- thanks for posting this. Key takeaway: the Gulf and the NW Caribbean are warmer, the C Caribbean is cooler. I'll take it. MDR, especially East, is cooler. Not all bad for Carolinas, development in Central instead of Eastern MDR would seem to favor better chance of reaching Carolinas before recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 MDR, especially East, is cooler. Not all bad for Carolinas, development in Central instead of Eastern MDR would seem to favor better chance of reaching Carolinas before recurve. See above-- I edited my post to discuss that. How come you're so fixated on Carolina action? It's not exactly where your'e going to get classic, high-end landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 See above-- I edited my post to discuss that. How come you're so fixated on Carolina action? It's not exactly where your'e going to get classic, high-end landfalls. Hidden Northeast weenieism. And can't diss Hugo. Hugo is a favorite of mine, after six years in the Navy, not even knowing about, say, Gloria until weeks later, read about Gilbert in Newsweek, Hugo was my first TWC intensive hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Hidden Northeast weenieism. And can't diss Hugo. Hugo would be great. Nothing that brushes the Outer Banks is ever any good, really-- unless you're into weakening 90-kt 'canes with enormous RMWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Hugo would be great. Nothing that brushes the Outer Banks is ever any good, really-- unless you're into weakening 90-kt 'canes with enormous RMWs. Unapologetic Tight Core Snob. But the sig with the fetish for tight cores in the Gulf sig is gone, anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The GFS has been hinting disturbed weather across Central America. Be it W Caribbean or EPAC, it's getting to be that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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