Atlantic Tropical Action 2011

[Ed Lizard]

Is there a Google search for those gifs?

Anyhooo.

Please se last nights video where I show Jessie the latest example of my impact theory and how she picks out where storms should go this year ( though I “corrected” it northeast with my normal bias toward the east coast since I think they are long overdo… I have 5 years left in my 2006 idea of 2 major hurricane hits north of Hatteras by 2015… I still believe it, but have not seen the kind of clustering on the east coast yet. However we are going into the “meat” of the decadol signal of cold PDO, warm amo).

I expect nothing less.

[bronxx]

Ed Mahmoud pointed out from the report "

As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is substantially higher than the yearly climatological average of 21%.

That 34% compared to 21% is proportionately greater than the 16 forecast storms are over the yearly number of storms in a "average" year. Arithmetic reigns.

9.6/16 = 21/X (9.6 being the avg. # of named storms 1950-2000 per CSU paper)

x =35

[k***]

That 34% compared to 21% is proportionately greater than the 16 forecast storms are over the yearly number of storms in a "average" year. Arithmetic reigns.

9.6 = 21 . . . . 9.6 is the avg. yearly # of named storms 1950-2000, as noted in the CSU paper.

16 . X x =35

using 1950-2000 as a baseline is no beuno

[bronxx]

using 1950-2000 as a baseline is no beuno

It appears CSU uses that baseline to come up with those percentages. See pages 26 and 27. And even if they use a different baseline, the increased probability for a Florida landfall is within a few % pts. of that 34% compared to the average 21% - using arithmetic as the main "forecasting" tool.

You are correct, though, in noting that St. Beuno did not live between 1950 and the year 2000.

Beuno - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Saint Beuno (died 640) was a 7th-century Welsh holy man and Abbot of Clynnog Fawr in Gwynedd, on the Llŷn peninsula. ...

[k***]

It appears CSU uses that baseline to come up with those percentages. See pages 26 and 27.

Beuno - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Saint Beuno (died 640) was a 7th-century Welsh holy man and Abbot of Clynnog Fawr in Gwynedd, on the Llŷn peninsula. ...

I'm just not a fan of that slice of time--It's not representative of what we should consider "normal" now because it's heavily -AMO biased.

[Ed Lizard]

Do they do any kind of sensitivity analysis? They partly rely on a modelled Nino region SST forecast, which while apparently the best available, by their own admission, isn't super-whammydyne accurate. I wonder how numbers/analogs change with incremental changes in the Nino state.

[gil888]

J.B. weighs in with 13-15 storms.

http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page

JB is looking for all these mysterious reasons why 1917 was so quiet bc ENSO was cold-- but he misses the most obvious one-- the Atlantic was very cold! Oh well-- odd to mention 1917 as an analog when you are forecasting 3-4 times as many storms as that year.

[Ed Lizard]

Still trying to understand why a forecast neutral ENSO is a negative for storm numbers in their scheme.

[am19psu]

Still trying to understand why a forecast neutral ENSO is a negative for storm numbers in their scheme.

I don't follow. There is a negative correlation with 3.4 SST anomaly. The colder the 3.4 forecast, the more numbers they forecast.

[bronxx]

JB is looking for all these mysterious reasons why 1917 was so quiet bc ENSO was cold-- but he misses the most obvious one-- the Atlantic was very cold! Oh well-- odd to mention 1917 as an analog when you are forecasting 3-4 times as many storms as that year.

I could easily be incorrect with my assumptions that bring up the following, so if I am, someone let me know.

My assumption is that when the term "analog" year is used in an upcoming hurricane season outlook, it does not mean the end result of the coming year will have hurricane occurrences somewhat approximating several other hurricane seasons in the past. (although that is the implication of the purpose of even making such forecasts.)

When they refer to an analog year, they are finding other pre-hurricane season conditions or indicators that are similar to what is occurring now and in the recent few months that have just passed.

So, as when Floydbuster threw out some analog years, it seemed that he was simply finding past seasons that he thought would have hurricane numbers and general tracks similar to what he thinks this year will bring. I don't know what JB means by analog years; and if he is using 1917 as one I could understand why a final number of storms could be so different than the other analog years produced. BUT, you noted that 1917 was a very cold Atlantic year: so I really can not figure out what constitutes JB's definition or parameters are for an analog year. The only logic could be that his analog years, if based on conditions and indicators, do not include Atlantic SST, or weigh that factor heavily. I would think there could be some schemes that do not include Atlantic SST that provide a fairly good seasonal forecast per total # of named storms; at least nearly or as well as those schemes that do. Did not the CSU forecast for many of the earlier years, not include Atlantic SST's overall; or at least not weigh that factor as heavily as it does now? The QBO was one of the biggest factors in their outlooks at the beginning; and today they don't give that nearly as much weight.

Concerning JB: there is also the fact that his target audience is the general public; who do not, in general, have the certain amount of meteorological knowledge that weather enthusiasts or meteorologists do; which includes participants in web forums such as this.

I will add that it appears to me that most, if not nearly all, of CSU parameters are based on certain current conditions persisting. In more cases than not, they do: so CSU forecast, as far as below, average, or above normal --- are more often correct than not. The biggest factor, the ENSO phase, is not a pure persistence thing, of course; but it does assume a persistence of the current trend of the ENSO phase.

When several of those conditions or indicators do not persist through the season, or the ENSO phase forecast busts; his outlook also busts.

[Ed Lizard]

I don't follow. There is a negative correlation with 3.4 SST anomaly. The colder the 3.4 forecast, the more numbers they forecast.

Am I reading Table 2 wrong?

[HM]

JB is looking for all these mysterious reasons why 1917 was so quiet bc ENSO was cold-- but he misses the most obvious one-- the Atlantic was very cold! Oh well-- odd to mention 1917 as an analog when you are forecasting 3-4 times as many storms as that year.

This made me laugh out loud. By the way, Ed, I got your message man.

1917 is a terrible analog to use for predicting numbers, especially because of the -AMO period that we were estimated to be in at that time. I would stick to +AMO years when it comes to predicting numbers. And on that note, I think it is generally a waste of time predicting total numbers.

By the way...El Niño fail this summer.

[am19psu]

Am I reading Table 2 wrong?

Are you? If the EC forecasts a Nina, numbers go up. If they forecast a Nino, numbers go down. If they forecast normal, no effect on the prediction.

[nzucker]

By the way...El Niño fail this summer.

Yeah it doesn't seem like El Niño is really gaining a foothold, that last burst of westerly winds never got into the core ENSO regions. Seems like the -PDO configuration is holding strong and reinforcing that Baja cold pool...

[HurricaneJosh]

This made me laugh out loud. By the way, Ed, I got your message man.

1917 is a terrible analog to use for predicting numbers, especially because of the -AMO period that we were estimated to be in at that time. I would stick to +AMO years when it comes to predicting numbers. And on that note, I think it is generally a waste of time predicting total numbers.

Well, hello, stranger! Nice to see you dropping by.

By the way...El Niño fail this summer.

Cool.

[HM]

Yeah it doesn't seem like El Niño is really gaining a foothold, that last burst of westerly winds never got into the core ENSO regions. Seems like the -PDO configuration is holding strong and reinforcing that Baja cold pool...

I'm not going to lie, there are plenty of agents that support the development of a warm ENSO:

1. The IOD system has shifted, altering the West Pac warm pool that would potentially favor DW KW moving eastward.

2. The +QBO has downwelled and the -QBO wave is coming on

3. The OHC is warm and so is the eastern Niño regions

4. The MJO activity has been fairly active on the eastward extent of the warm pool.

Those are very compelling reasons to go with an El Niño. However, I think the PDO system that relates back to the sun system doesn't favor this forming yet. Although, should the solar wind decide to drop off a cliff again...then perhaps an El Niño would form.

[Ed Lizard]

Speaking of the QBO, I can remember when Gray used QBO phase as part of his TC number predictions. Seen talk about the stratosphere on the long range Winter threads, is the QBO still considered relevant to TC genesis.

[MJW155]

Hey Josh,

I'll let you stay at my house for $500 a night if you can't find a hotel room in S. Florida during a chase.

[Srain]

[k***]

those analogs show lots of carolina and mid atlantic action...bethesda boi might be on to something

[downeastnc]

Works for me.....96 was awesome.....Bertha and Fran made for a heck of a summer. 99 had Floyd and well I was ground zero for the flooding and there is nothing fun there the winds in Floyd were meh compared to Bertha and Fran.

[HM]

Speaking of the QBO, I can remember when Gray used QBO phase as part of his TC number predictions. Seen talk about the stratosphere on the long range Winter threads, is the QBO still considered relevant to TC genesis.

The QBO is relevant to the Tropics. The theories have grown more complicated, however, since the original ideas. The 10-50mb shear was the possible connection to why the +QBO phase was more favorable for TC genesis than the -QBO phase back in the day. This theory has many issues and the connection has slowly waned ever since the +AMO shift, either due to time exposing the bad idea or because the warm water simply trumps a lousy stratospheric zonal wind stress. This simplified connection may become more relevant again when the AMO heads into the cold phase, but for now the connections are more complicated.

The -QBO wave will be downwelling this summer/autumn and this means that the equatorial regions will be cooler than normal at the tropopause level and the subtropics will be warmer than normal at this level. This may strengthen the Central Atlantic ridge during ASO and potentially lead to a 1996 type of track year. Of course, the QBO isn't the only factor and must be incorporated into the whole picture.

The analogs this year are pretty nasty looking for North Carolina. Unless El Niño comes on, I think NC is in trouble.

[Floydbuster]

The analogs this year are pretty nasty looking for North Carolina. Unless El Niño comes on, I think NC is in trouble.

I would say North Carolina is always at risk. In 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 the Carolinas were impacted by Isabel, Gaston, Ophelia, Ernesto, Gabrielle and Hanna, respectively.

If there is a state I'd be probably a little more concerned about this year, given the analogs, I'd say the mid-south Texas coastline. Areas like Corpus Christi, Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, ect.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, some of this analog years defnitely suggest a strong W-Gulf or MX threat -- which excites me personally. 1955 alone had two solid Caribbean Cruisers-- including perhaps my fave cyclone of all time.

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah, some of this analog years defnitely suggest a strong W-Gulf or MX threat -- which excites me personally. 1955 alone had two solid Caribbean Cruisers-- including perhaps my fave cyclone of all time.

You chase the Carolinas? Is there an issue with mando evacs on the barrier islands?

[HurricaneJosh]

You chase the Carolinas? Is there an issue with mando evacs on the barrier islands?

Sure I would-- but I'd be more into something plowing into the mainland (a la Hazel, Gracie, or Hugo) than a barrier-island brusher.

My heart is completely with the tight-core, deep-tropical cyclones these days-- which I consider sort of a superior sub-race of hurricanes-- but, hey, at this point I'll take a Cat 3 anywhere in the USA. We're pushing 6 yrs without one!

[am19psu]

Sure I would-- but I'd be more into something plowing into the mainland (a la Hazel, Gracie, or Hugo) than a barrier-island brusher.

My heart is completely with the tight-core, deep-tropical cyclones these days-- which I consider sort of a superior sub-race of hurricanes-- but, hey, at this point I'll take a Cat 3 anywhere in the USA. We're pushing 6 yrs without one!

Tropical Darwinism FTW

[HurricaneJosh]

Tropical Darwinism FTW

[IsentropicLift]

The general theme throughout the long range for quite awhile now appears to be a nice dome of high pressure off the SE US coast. This should allow for favorable development underneath the ridge. Tropical cyclones would then round the base of the ridge and be directed into the SE US. If this pattern persists, it should be a very good year for chasing.

[k***]

The general theme throughout the long range for quite awhile now appears to be a nice dome of high pressure off the SE US coast. This should allow for favorable development underneath the ridge. Tropical cyclones would then round the base of the ridge and be directed into the SE US. If this pattern persists, it should be a very good year for chasing.

it might be 4 months before we even get a real storm...taking the 384 hr GFS and extrapolating it forward doesnt make a whole lot of sense.