Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 not going to happen if there is a persistent EC trough or a Russian heatwave. How about a Great Lakes trough? Dang, in the absence of modelling, I would have been guessing severely wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 How about a Great Lakes trough? Dang, in the absence of modelling, I would have been guessing severely wide right. I think the midwest trough went negative and drew the hurricane toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 CPC nino 3.4 holds steady at -0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page so this is what JB's blogs look like? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 You know, I've lost all fondness for high end La Nina events. It just seems like we can't get any landfalls on the continental US with a Nina pattern. This is totally unscientific, but I generally hope for a neutral to slight Nina season. It seems to be a good middle ground between no development and crappy steering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 You know, I've lost all fondness for high end La Nina events. It just seems like we can't get any landfalls on the continental US with a Nina pattern. This is totally unscientific, but I generally hope for a neutral to slight Nina season. It seems to be a good middle ground between no development and crappy steering. I totally hear ya. I was kind of thinking the same thing, and-- like you-- I don't have any data to back up this opinion. It just seems like these La Nina seasons always disappoint from a landfall perspective. Except for hardcore El Ninos, I don't care that much what ENSO state we're in with regard to 'cane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 You know, I've lost all fondness for high end La Nina events. It just seems like we can't get any landfalls on the continental US with a Nina pattern. This is totally unscientific, but I generally hope for a neutral to slight Nina season. It seems to be a good middle ground between no development and crappy steering. Except that the strongest summer Niña ever recorded was 1955. ENSO is not the be all end all for hurricane steering mechanisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Except that the strongest summer Niña ever recorded was 1955. ENSO is not the be all end all for hurricane steering mechanisms. If you look at ASO, here are the top ten coldest La Nina years since 1871: 1988 1916 1973 1975 1890 1893 1955 1942 1874 1886 2010 would fit in that list as well. 4 of those years are historic in terms of landfalls. You guys just have too short of a memory. Give me a strong La Nina anytime... yeah sure it may not work out but your chances for an epic years are greatly enhanced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 No way dude. Sample sizes of 1 prove everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 (TSR) Tropical Storm Risk updated seasonal numbers were lowered a tad yesterday to 14/8/4. April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 For those more interested in the ENSO relationship with US landfalls, Phillip Klotzbach had a rather comprehensive paper on that topic: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2011%28us%29.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Speaking of Dr.Klotzbach, CSU is scheduled for another Tropical Season 2011 Update tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 For those more interested in the ENSO relationship with US landfalls, Phillip Klotzbach had a rather comprehensive paper on that topic: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2011%28us%29.pdf Seems pretty reasonable from an empirical point of view, since Ninas tend to feature stronger subtropical ridges which steer storms towards the EC. I hadn't seen that paper before, though, so thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 If you look at ASO, here are the top ten coldest La Nina years since 1871: 1988 1916 1973 1975 1890 1893 1955 1942 1874 1886 2010 would fit in that list as well. 4 of those years are historic in terms of landfalls. You guys just have too short of a memory. Give me a strong La Nina anytime... yeah sure it may not work out but your chances for an epic years are greatly enhanced! 2.4 hurricanes per year for the US... not bad... though, SFL gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I think the midwest trough went negative and drew the hurricane toward the coast. incorrect, the storm "made it's own weather" is the right answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 A Connie/Diane 1955 type year would make the MA subforum so happy. And Josh could have Janet. This could be the happiest weather forum ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 2.4 hurricanes per year for the US... not bad... though, SFL gets screwed Very interesting, and goes along with what I expected, and happened last year. The typical troughiness over the E. US in strong Nina's starts to recurve everything at the latitude of S. FL, but anything that can pass south of the trough no longer has any forcing to recurve into southwest FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Very interesting, and goes along with what I expected, and happened last year. The typical troughiness over the E. US in strong Nina's starts to recurve everything at the latitude of S. FL, but anything that can pass south of the trough no longer has any forcing to recurve into southwest FL. Not saying you're wrong, but that is not what I usually think of during Ninas. Here is the H5 correlation to SOI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Not saying you're wrong, but that is not what I usually think of during Ninas. Here is the H5 correlation to SOI. Hmm, there always seems to be a trough whenever a TC is threatning FL. Maybe the pattern is just more changeable during strong Ninas, so the signal of frequent weak troughs dipping pretty far south is canceled out by the signal of frequent strong high pressure behind each cold front? Or maybe it's just bad luck with the timing of troughs and TCs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 2.4 hurricanes per year for the US... not bad... though, SFL gets screwed Isn't that just pure dumb luck though? There are tracks to the south, east, and west of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 2.4 hurricanes per year for the US... not bad... though, SFL gets screwed Screwed?!?! I call that watching them all pass by and breathe a sigh of relief Cat 1, fine. Any stronger and that can be a royal PITA IMBY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 For those more interested in the ENSO relationship with US landfalls, Phillip Klotzbach had a rather comprehensive paper on that topic: http://tropical.atmo...011%28us%29.pdf I do believe the most important line in the report is near the beginning, which is basically the same conclusion a non-expert would guess is the case with no detailed statistics to work with: "In general, more active Atlantic basin TC seasons have more landfalling U.S. hurricanes (Gray 1984; Klotzbach andGray 2004)" Most, if not all the other statistics and indicators, are not definitive enough to draw much of any other conclusion on the probability of a US landfall in a specific upcoming year based on the ENSO cycle at the time. I believe Hurricanes Andrew, Betsy, and Camille all occurred during El Nino situations; which is contrary to the overall probabilities noted in t he report. That short list contains 2 of the 3 cat 5 landfalls in the past 100+ yrs. IE: flip a coin. Trying to predict landfall probabilities months in advance is basically trying to predict where the long wave position will mostly be during the August 20th-Oct.20 time period ahead. 90 day forecasts for "warmer than normal" or "colder than normal" temps over certain areas of the country bear probabilities of verification in the 55% range most of the time (60% once in a while), and they are basically a forecast on where the long wave position will average as well. Hence, any seasonal hurricane landfall "sooth saying" has a verification probability in that same 55% range. And that 55% is tempered even further: as even if there is a general ridge at mid levels along and just off the East Coast as a hurricane approaches, only a tiny weakness in that ridge will allow the hurricane to turn north or re-curve before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 April update is out from Dr. Gray/Klotzbach. 16/9/5 down one from 17/9/5. http://hurricane.atm...011/apr2011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 April update is out from Dr. Gray/Klotzbach. 16/9/5 down one from 17/9/5. http://hurricane.atm...011/apr2011.pdf Best analog years 1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is substantially higher than the yearly climatological average of 21%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 J.B. weighs in with 13-15 storms. http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 J.B. weighs in with 13-15 storms. http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Elevated risk for a Florida and East Coast impact this year. http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 April update is out from Dr. Gray/Klotzbach. 16/9/5 down one from 17/9/5. http://hurricane.atm...011/apr2011.pdf Here is the important quickie info: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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